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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.18% at 58412 as geopolitical concerns surrounding Russia drew some investors into the safe haven metal, outweighing pressure from a hawkish interest rate outlook. Bullion slumped nearly 2% in the previous week as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials signalled more rate hikes to tame sticky inflation. Heavily armed Russian mercenaries withdrew from the southern Russian city of Rostov under a deal that halted their rapid advance on Moscow. Meanwhile, markets saw 72% chance of a rate hike in July, with cuts seen from 2024 onwards, according to CME Fedwatch tool. Speculators raised their net long position in COMEX gold by 1,322 to 94,626 in the week ended June 20, CFTC data showed. Swiss gold exports rose in May after falling to their lowest in 10 months in April due to higher shipments to India, Swiss customs data showed. Swiss gold exports to India in May were the highest since September 2022, the data released showed. Consumer demand for the precious metal in Asia is usually sensitive to high prices. The physical gold market in India flipped to a premium as a pullback in domestic prices boosted demand, while buying was lacklustre in other top Asian hubs. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.11% to settle at 12441 while prices are up 105 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58286 and below same could see a test of 58160 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58604, a move above could see prices testing 58796.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58160-58796.
* Gold climbs as Russia risks outweigh rate hike concerns
* Markets adjusting to geopolitical worries in Russia
* Dollar sluggish as investors ponder over rates, economic outlook

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.62% at 69185 as weak PMI data coming out of Europe and the U.S. raised concerns about a deep downturn in major economies. The dollar was subdued as investors awaited more clues on the Federal Reserve's upcoming moves in July. Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic said he supports holding the central bank's target-rate level for the rest of the year. However, San Francisco president Mary Daly said two more interest-rate hikes this year is a "very reasonable" projection. Geopolitical tensions remained in focus after a short-lived mutiny in Russia by the Wagner paramilitary group revived concerns over nuclear arsenal security. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the events exposed "real cracks" in Putin's rule. The U.S. economic calendar picks up momentum this week, with investors awaiting reports on durable goods orders, consumer confidence, new home sales and pending home sales for additional clues about the outlook for interest rates. The Commerce Department is due to release its report on personal income and spending for May, which includes a reading on inflation said to be preferred by the Fed. Meanwhile, German business sentiment pointed to the likelihood of a longer recession. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -19.86% to settle at 8917 while prices are up 1102 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68702 and below same could see a test of 68219 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69565, a move above could see prices testing 69945.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68219-69945.
* Silver gains as weak US PMI raised concerns about a deep downturn in economy
* The dollar was subdued as investors awaited more clues on the Federal Reserve's upcoming moves in July.
* Fed’s Bostic said he supports holding the central bank's target-rate level for the rest of the year.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.09% at 5737 as Russia faced a brief rebellion by a private military group over the weekend, raising concerns about political instability that could hamper supply. The paramilitary group Wagner advanced toward Moscow over the weekend before retreating after reportedly striking a deal with the Russian government to end the insurrection. Russia has been a major oil supplier to Asian countries including China and India, as high energy prices prompted emerging economies to purchase discounted Russian oil. OPEC expects global oil demand to rise to 110 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045, its Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said, 23% higher than current levels. Global oil market fundamentals are expected to remain sound for the rest of the year, underpinned by healthy demand in developing countries, especially in China and India. Saudi Aramco believes market fundamentals remain "sound" for the second half as demand from emerging markets led by China and India will offset recession risk in developed markets. U.S. crude oil output fell by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 12.2 million bpd last week, the biggest decline since Sept. 2021, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.37% to settle at 14947 while prices are up 62 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5674 and below same could see a test of 5611 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5780, a move above could see prices testing 5823.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5611-5823.
* Crude oil gains as Russia faced a brief rebellion, raising concerns about supply
* OPEC sees global oil demand rising to 110 mln bpd by 2045
* Global oil market fundamentals sound for rest of 2023

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.74% at 235.9 with demand for LNG exports seen rising and soaring temperatures expected to boost cooling demand, especially in Texas. U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for an eighth week in a row for the first time since July 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. Data provider Refinitiv predicted demand for exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to rise from 11 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) last week to 11.5 bcfd this week and 12.6 next week. The higher LNG exports and power plant demand was expected to drive up total U.S. demand for natural gas from 94.7 bcfd last week to 97.9 bcfd this week, before rising to 102 bcfd next week. ERCOT also projected power use would reach record highs last week but demand fell short of the record after storms and storm-related power outages reduced usage and consumers heeded the grid operator's June 20th call to conserve energy. Regardless of when demand sets a new all-time high, the heat should boost the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for air conditioning since Texas gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.23% to settle at 12446 while prices are up 8.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 230.2 and below same could see a test of 224.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 241.2, a move above could see prices testing 246.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 224.6-246.6.
* Natural gas with demand for LNG exports seen rising.
* U.S. energy firms cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for an eighth week in a row
* Demand for exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to rise from 11 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) last week to 11.5 bcfd this week


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 716.45 as a concerning macroeconomic backdrop pressed against demand expectations for industrial inputs. The Chinese government has refrained from mandating stimulus to support its struggling manufacturing sector, while the Fed, ECB, and BoE are set to continue raising interest rates and further cap industrial output. Still, major market players continued to flag worries that copper supply may not keep up with expectations of strong long-term demand, since the metal is a critical raw material for the transition to renewable resources. Copper inventories at the LME and COMEX remained at low levels, dropping 7% on the week ending June 23rd. Also, Chile said this year's output is estimated to sink as much as 7% after the 10.6% decline in 2022. S&P Global said it has cut its 2023 GDP growth forecast for China after May data showed a post-COVID recovery was faltering in the world's second-largest economy. "We have reduced our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.2%, from 5.5%," it said in a research note. "China's recovery should continue but at an uneven pace, with investment and industry lagging." Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.64% to settle at 5670 while prices are down -2.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 713.1 and below same could see a test of 709.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 721.8, a move above could see prices testing 727.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 709.6-727.
* Copper dropped amid a concerning macroeconomic backdrop
* The Chinese government has refrained from mandating stimulus to support its struggling manufacturing sector
* Copper inventories at the LME and COMEX remained at low levels, dropping 7% on the week

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.03% at 211.7 amid a strong dollar and concerns about global economic growth. Macroeconomic data continued to disappoint, with a slump in German manufacturing to a 37-month low in June while S&P has cut its forecast for economic growth in China this year. Official PMIs from China, due this week, should provide some insight into demand outlook from the world's biggest metals consumer. Global zinc market surplus fell to 12,500 metric tons in April, down from 65,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first four months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 137,000 metric tons, versus a surplus of 156,000 metric tons in the same period of 2022. Zinc inventories in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses have nearly doubled from the prior week to a one-year peak after a shipment arrived in Malaysia. While Some European smelter capacity remains offline, China's producers are lifting production after soaking up surplus concentrates. Swedish producer Boliden has recently decided to halt operations at its Irish facilities, including the Tara Zinc mine, as the mine's cash flow turned negative, but it is unlikely to have much immediate impact on overall output. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 19.62% to settle at 3372 while prices are down -2.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 209.7 and below same could see a test of 207.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 214.1, a move above could see prices testing 216.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 207.7-216.5.
* Zinc dropped amid a strong dollar and concerns about global economic growth.
* S&P has cut its forecast for economic growth in China this year
* Official PMIs from China, due this week, should provide some insight into demand outlook


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.21% at 195.55 as macroeconomic data continued to disappoint, with a slump in German manufacturing to a 37-month low in June while S&P has cut its forecast for economic growth in China this year. S&P Global said it has cut its 2023 GDP growth forecast for China after May data showed a post-COVID recovery was faltering in the world's second-largest economy. "We have reduced our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.2%, from 5.5%," it said in a research note. "China's recovery should continue but at an uneven pace, with investment and industry lagging." S&P is the first major international credit agency to cut its forecasts for China's economy this year, although several major banks including Goldman Sachs have lowered their estimates this month. Goldman Sachs reduced its forecast from 6% to 5.4%, citing persistently weak confidence and the cloud over the property market as stronger-than-expected headwinds. China's economy stumbled in May with property investment slumping further, industrial output and retail sales growth missing forecasts, adding to expectations that Beijing will need to do more to shore up a shaky post-pandemic recovery. China will roll out more stimulus to support a slowing economy this year. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 13.06% to settle at 3939 while prices are down -2.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 194.3 and below same could see a test of 193.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197.7, a move above could see prices testing 199.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 193.1-199.9.
* Aluminium dropped as macroeconomic data continued to disappoint
* Pressure also seen amid a slump in German manufacturing to a 37-month low in June
* S&P Global cuts China 2023 growth forecast to 5.2% from 5.5%

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 912.5 on low level buying after prices dropped on better sowing prospects. Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr 2023, dropped by 42.52 percent to 97.85 tonnes as compared to 170.22 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 97.85 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 202.95 tonnes in March 2023 showing a drop of 51.78%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.1 Rupees to end at 1035.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.51% to settle at 766 while prices are up 5.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 907.1 and below same could see a test of 901.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 916.3, a move above could see prices testing 920.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 901.7-920.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.1 Rupees to end at 1035.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gains on low level buying after prices dropped on better sowing prospects
* Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices.
* Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.33% at 9192 on profit booking after prices gained as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Crop arrivals for the week ending June 10, 2023, were significantly lower at 3,731.85 MT, down 55% from the previous week. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr 2023, rose by 42.32 percent at 19,590.87 tonnes as compared to 13,765.03 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 19,590.87 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 18,810.47 tonnes in March 2023 showing a rise of 4.15%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8330.7 Rupees gained 71.8 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.05% to settle at while prices are down -124 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9050 and below same could see a test of 8908 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9392, a move above could see prices testing 9592.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8908-9592.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease
* Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops.
* Supplies in Maharashtra and Telangana are likely to increase as farmers are getting fair realization on their produce.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8330.7 Rupees gained 71.8 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 5.72% at 58085 due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. Marginal traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Below normal supplies in the market supported firmness in prices. About 508 tonnes of jeera arrived on 6th June at major APMC mandis across India as compared to 653 tonnes of prior day. Tighter carryover stocks and lower production will push up the prices further. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 4728.15 Rupees to end at 59504.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.09% to settle at while prices are up 3145 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 57335 and below same could see a test of 56580 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58540, a move above could see prices testing 58990.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 56580-58990.
* Jeera rose due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 4728.15 Rupees to end at 59504.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

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