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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.93% at 50195 remaining under pressure from a rallying dollar and Treasury yields as investors brace for an even more aggressive monetary policy tightening. The Federal Reserve is likely to consider surprising markets with a larger-than-expected 75 basis point rate increase at their meeting this week after a string of troubling inflation readings. Aggressive rate hike expectations also stoked fears of a recession in the world’s largest economy, driving further selling and forced liquidation across financial markets, including gold. More central banks are expected to increase their gold holdings this year as they continue to view the bullion as a reserve asset. Producer prices in the US increased 0.8% mom in May of 2022, following a 0.4% rise in April and matching forecasts. Prices of goods went up 1.4% with the biggest jump reported for gasoline (8.4%) followed by jet fuel, residential natural gas, steel mill products, diesel fuel, and processed young chickens. In a survey conducted by the World Gold Council (WGC) among central banks, 25 percent said they plan to buy more gold in the next 12 months, up from 21 percent last year. Central banks are also more optimistic this year on gold as a reserve asset, with 61 percent of respondents saying that global gold reserves will increase over the next 12 months. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.7% to settled at 13080 while prices down -469 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50009 and below same could see a test of 49822 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50525, a move above could see prices testing 50854.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49822-50854.
* Gold dropped remaining under pressure from a rallying dollar and Treasury yields as investors brace for an even more aggressive monetary policy tightening.
* Producer prices in the US increased 0.8% mom in May of 2022, following a 0.4% rise in April and matching forecasts.
* 25% of central banks to boost gold holdings amid global uncertainty

Silver 
Silver yesterday settled down by -1.34% at 59501 as investors became increasingly worried about the economic outlook and more aggressive tightening moves by the US Fed. The global economic outlook remains clouded by the war in Ukraine, rising borrowing costs, ongoing supply disruptions, and high commodity prices. The Federal Reserve is set to continue its tightening path this week after headline inflation rose to 41-year highs in May. Other central banks around the world including the ECB and the RBA have also set a more hawkish tone, as inflation is not showing signs of peaking. U.S. producer prices increased solidly in May amid a surge in the cost of energy products, suggesting inflation could remain elevated for a while. The producer price index for final demand rose 0.8% last month after advancing 0.4% in April, the Labor Department said. In the 12 months through May, the PPI increased 10.8% after accelerating 10.9% in April. Government data last Friday showed a broad increase in consumer prices in May, which raised concerns that inflation was likely entrenched. Those fears were amplified by a University of Michigan survey last week showing consumers' five-year inflation expectations jumped to a 14-year high of 3.3% in early June from a final reading of 3.0% in May. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.18% to settled at 15969 while prices down -810 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 59090 and below same could see a test of 58678 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60182, a move above could see prices testing 60862.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 58678-60862.
* Silver fell as investors became increasingly worried about the economic outlook and more aggressive tightening moves by the US Fed.
* U.S. producer prices increased solidly in May amid a surge in the cost of energy products, suggesting inflation could remain elevated for a while.
* The Federal Reserve is set to continue its tightening path this week after headline inflation rose to 41-year highs in May.

Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 9398 on reports of a likely proposal to impose a federal surtax on certain oil companies to curb rising inflation. A sharp drop in natural gas prices amid reports that repairs to a damaged Freeport LNG terminal might not be on till later this year, weighed as well on oil prices. OPEC's kept its forecast that global oil demand will exceed pre-pandemic levels this year despite headwinds from the war in Ukraine and the coronavirus pandemic. OPEC has stuck with its forecast that world oil demand will exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022, although the producer group said Russia's invasion of Ukraine and developments around the coronavirus pandemic pose a considerable risk. In a monthly report, OPEC maintained its forecast that world oil demand would rise by 3.36 million bpd in 2022, extending a recovery from 2020's slump. The Ukraine war sent oil briefly above $139 a barrel in March, the highest since 2008, worsening inflationary pressures. COVID lockdowns in China, where a Beijing outbreak has prompted the resumption of mass testing, have curbed oil demand. OPEC and its allies, which include Russia, known as OPEC+, are ramping up output in monthly increments after record cuts put in place during the worst of the pandemic in 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.95% to settled at 6081 while prices down -45 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 9281 and below same could see a test of 9163 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9576, a move above could see prices testing 9753.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 9163-9753.
* Crude oil dropped on reports of a likely proposal to impose a federal surtax on certain oil companies to curb rising inflation.
* OPEC Leaves 2022 oil demand growth forecast at 3.36 mbpd
* OPEC Cuts 2022 Russian output forecast, leaves U.S. shale steady

Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -14.62% at 573.6 after Freeport LNG said it doesn't expect the terminal to return to entire plant operations until late 2022, with partial operations resuming perhaps in three months. The recent explosion at one of the biggest US liquefied natural gas export terminals sparked worries that some domestic supplies will be stuck onshore despite soaring international demand. Freeport receives about 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day or roughly 16% of US LNG export capacity. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 94.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from 95.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. On a daily basis, U.S. output was on track to drop by 1.9 bcfd to a preliminary 93.7 bcfd, the lowest since late April. That would be the biggest one-day decline since early February but traders noted pipeline flow data has shown several similar declines over the past few months and all so far have been revised substantially lower. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 93.6 bcfd this week to 94.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.64% to settled at 4481 while prices down -98.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 518.6 and below same could see a test of 463.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 661.1, a move above could see prices testing 748.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 463.5-748.5.
* Natural gas tumbled after Freeport LNG said it doesn't expect the terminal to return to entire plant operations until late 2022.
* U.S. storage was currently about 15%, or 340 bcf, below normal levels for this time of year, its lowest since April 2019.
* EIA said utilities added 97 bcf of gas to storage during the week ended June 3.

Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -1.79% at 749.8 as pressure seen after copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 18.7 percent from last release on Jun 02, the exchange said. Shanghai and Beijing went back on fresh COVID-19 alert after parts of China's largest economic hub imposed new lockdown restrictions and the city announced a round of mass testing for millions of residents. Risky assets also fell as the European Central Bank's rate-hike outlook unnerved investors amid heightened concerns about global slowdown. China's factory-gate inflation cooled in May, official data showed, depressed by weak demand for steel, aluminium and other key industrial commodities due to tight COVID-19 curbs. The producer price index (PPI) rose 6.4% year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, after the 8.0% rise in April, and in line with forecasts. It was the weakest reading since March 2021. The consumer price index (CPI) gained 2.1% from a year earlier in May, in line with April's growth. The world's second-largest economy has slowed significantly in recent months, hit by strict COVID-19 controls, disrupting supply chains and jolting production and consumption. A group of indigenous Peruvian communities agreed to temporarily lift a protest against MMG Ltd's Las Bambas copper mine that forced the company to halt operations for more than 50 days, the longest in the mine's history. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.62% to settled at 4206 while prices down -13.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 742.6 and below same could see a test of 735.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 762.1, a move above could see prices testing 774.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 735.3-774.3.
* Copper prices dropped as pressure seen after copper inventories in SHFE warehouses rose by 18.7 percent.
* Shanghai and Beijing went back on fresh COVID-19 alert after parts of China's largest economic hub imposed new lockdown restrictions
* Peru communities to allow Las Bambas mine restart after 51-day shutdown

Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.87% at 309.85 as renewed COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China rekindled demand worries. Risky assets also fell as the European Central Bank's rate-hike outlook unnerved investors amid heightened concerns about global slowdown. Total zinc inventories across seven major markets in China stood at 231,800 mt as of June 10, down 3,100 mt from June 6 and 6,800 mt from June 2. Overall, the inventory in the seven markets continued to decrease. China’s refined zinc output was 515,200 mt in May, an increase of 19,700 mt or 3.97% MoM and an increase of 4.16% YoY, SMM data showed. From January to May 2022, the combined refined zinc output is estimated to be 2.483 million mt, a decrease of 1.09% year on year. Survey showed that China's refined zinc output in May basically has met expectations. The output increased mainly because a large smelter in Yunnan resumed the production after maintenance. Meanwhile, some smelters in Shaanxi and Sichuan and a smelter in Inner Mongolia raised their operating rates, and some small smelters in Guangxi returned to normal production. China's annual inflation rate was at 2.1% in May 2022, unchanged from April's five month high figure and compared with market forecasts of 2.2%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.36% to settled at 1121 while prices down -5.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 306 and below same could see a test of 302 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 316.5, a move above could see prices testing 323.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 302-323.
* Zinc prices dropped as renewed COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China rekindled demand worries.
* Risky assets also fell as the European Central Bank's rate-hike outlook unnerved investors amid heightened concerns about global slowdown.
* Goldman Sachs lowered its 2022 growth forecast to 4% from 4.5%, below China's official target of around 5.5%.

Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -2.86% at 217.45 as there are new actions concerning pandemic prevention control in China, which affected the market sentiment. The market digested ECB interest rate resolution, and falling Euro shored up the US dollar index, pressuring non-ferrous metals. On the supply side, aluminium output kept rising, weighing on aluminium prices. The stimulus packages boosted the market confidence, but it will take some time before the demand picks up substantially. Near-term market was still cautious on the scandal of repeated pledges on aluminium ingot stocks. China's factory-gate inflation cooled to its slowest pace in 14 months in May, official data showed, depressed by weak demand for steel, aluminium and other key industrial commodities due to tight COVID-19 curbs. The producer price index (PPI) rose 6.4% year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, after the 8.0% rise in April, and in line with forecasts. It was the weakest reading since March 2021. China's annual inflation rate was at 2.1% in May 2022, unchanged from April's five-month high figure and compared with market forecasts of 2.2%. Prices of food rose the most since September 2020, up for the second straight month (2.3% vs 1.9% in April), as consumption strengthened following an easing of COVID-19 curbs in key cities, including Shanghai and Beijing. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.09% to settled at 3177 while prices down -6.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 214.9 and below same could see a test of 212.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 222.1, a move above could see prices testing 226.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 212.4-226.8.
* Aluminium dropped as there are new actions concerning pandemic prevention control in China, affected the market sentiment
* China's factory-gate inflation cooled to its slowest pace in 14 months in May, official data showed
* China's annual inflation rate was at 2.1% in May 2022, unchanged from April's five-month high figure

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.39% at 1048.1 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 20.3 Rupees to end at 1183 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.7% to settled at 808 while prices up 14.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1036.8 and below same could see a test of 1025.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1056.7, a move above could see prices testing 1065.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1025.5-1065.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 20.3 Rupees to end at 1183 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gains amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry.
* However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.

Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 8008 amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India. The arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses. As per latest export figures, turmeric exports in Mar 2022 jumped higher 27.4% y/y at 15,750 tonnes vs 12,360 tonnes while for the period of Jan-Mar 2022, exports are only down by 1.15% y/y at 36,750 tonnes. In FY 2021/22, exports were down 16.7% y/y at 1.53 lakh tons but higher by 10% compared with 5-year average. Traders and exporters are expecting the prices to remain stable as Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh turmeric arrivals have also increased. Kocha arrivals are good at markets in Sangli, Hingoli and Nanded regions in Maharashtra. Due to aggressive coverages by oleoresin companies, prices were steady during the month. Panangali arrivals have started in Salem, Erode and Gundalpet markets. Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022. Crop is reported to be normal. Domestic demand reduced particularly with the new season crop supplies from Marathwada region of Maharashtra during April. Turmeric all India production for 2022 is estimated at 4.67 lakh tonnes, revised after crop damage due to excessive rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during October and November. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8204.45 Rupees gained 10.5 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.53% to settled at 16445 while prices down -42 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7968 and below same could see a test of 7930 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8052, a move above could see prices testing 8098.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7930-8098.
* Turmeric dropped amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India.
* As per latest export figures, turmeric exports in Mar 2022 jumped higher 27.4% y/y at 15,750 tonnes vs 12,360 tonnes
* For the period of Jan-Mar 2022, exports are only down by 1.15% y/y at 36,750 tonnes.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8204.45 Rupees gained 10.5 Rupees.

Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.49% at 21285 as Cumin exports dropped by 60.58% in March 2022 to around 13406.43 tonnes as against 33203.08 tonnes in March 2021. However downside seen limited because of lower production of the spice in the country, partly because many farmers shifted to more lucrative commodities. daily basis Jeera arrivals in Unjha market were around 5,000 bags, Saurashtra and Gondal market around 800 t0 1,000 bags are arriving. Similarly, in Rajasthan also daily arrivals have remained weak, in Jodhpur market around 1,500 bags, at Nagaur 500 bags and other centres 500 bags arrivals noted. In Rajasthan, the new crop of cumin in the current year has come only 60% i.e. around 30 lakh bags as compared to last year. The arrival of cumin in Rajasthan has been only 50% in the peak season in the current year as compared to the previous years as the crop was less. There was a drought in Turkey and Syria and due to state tensions, the sowing of cumin seeds has been reported to be very low. Export demand for cumin seeds is expected to increase for the rest of the season due to reports of very low harvests in Turkey, Syria and Afghanistan. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -89.7 Rupees to end at 21405.05 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.44% to settled at 14340 while prices down -105 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21160 and below same could see a test of 21035 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21400, a move above could see prices testing 21515.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21035-21515.
* Jeera dropped as Cumin exports dropped by 60.58% in March 2022 to around 13406.43 tonnes as against 33203.08 tonnes in March 2021.
* In Rajasthan, the new crop of cumin in the current year has come only 60% i.e. around 30 lakh bags as compared to last year.
* Export demand for cumin seeds is expected to increase for the rest of the season due to reports of very low harvests in Turkey, Syria and Afghanistan.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -89.7 Rupees to end at 21405.05 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 46910 as support seen after there were reports of 18 per cent less area under cotton sown than last year in Punjab. Despite the Punjab government setting a target to have 4 lakh hectares under cotton to reduce land under paddy, the state has witnessed an 18 per cent decrease from last year, when about 3.03 lakh hectares of the then targeted 3.25 lakh hectares were under cotton. Till now, cotton was sown on only 2.48 lakh hectares of land; the cotton sowing is almost over. USDA for 2022/23 raised its global production estimates. The 2022/23 world cotton balance sheet includes slightly higher production and slightly lower consumption projections compared with the previous month, and ending stocks are virtually unchanged. Global consumption is 450,000 bales lower, with the largest declines in Mexico, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. Beginning stocks for 2022/23 are also lower this month as a 1.5-million-bale decline in 2021/22 global production more than offsets a 1.25-million-bale decline in projected consumption. A 1.0- million-bale drop in India’s crop accounts for most of the production change, with lower yield expectations in Brazil accounting for the remainder. Consumption is projected 500,000 bales lower in both China and India, with smaller declines for Mexico and Vietnam. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -80 Rupees to end at 47660 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.08% to settled at 2384 while prices up 310 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 46620 and below same could see a test of 46330 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47160, a move above could see prices testing 47410.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 46330-47410.
* Cotton gains as support seen after there were reports of 18 per cent less area under cotton sown than last year in Punjab.
* The 2022/23 world cotton balance sheet includes slightly higher production and slightly lower consumption projections
* Consumption is projected 500,000 bales lower in both China and India, with smaller declines for Mexico and Vietnam.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -80 Rupees to end at 47660 Rupees.

 
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