Crude oil price corrected on Thursday on back of higher inventory data and uptick in US dollar - HDFC Securities
GLOBAL MARKET ROUND UP
* Gold prices traded higher with spot gold price at Comex was trading up by 0.24% at $1962 per ounce in the morning trade. Gold prices fall more than 1.0% in the previous session and extended its decline into a third consecutive day on the back of optimism for a US debt-ceiling deal and stronger-thanexpected labor market data reduce safe haven demand.
* On the macro front, US initial jobless claims fell more than forecast last week, underlining the robustness of the labor market despite higher interest rates.
* While breakthrough in debt ceiling, President Joe Biden expressed confidence that negotiators would reach an agreement to avoid a default, while House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he remained hopeful of an accord.
* U.S. dollar gathered momentum on markets pricing in more interest rate hikes this year with a resolution to the U.S. debt ceiling debate in sight.
* Crude oil price corrected on Thursday on back of higher inventory data and uptick in US dollar. On the fundamentals front, Global oil demand climbed by 3 million barrels a day in March from the previous month, as per latest report from International Energy Forum.
BULLION
* MCX Gold June future hit fresh swing low of Rs 59540 on Thursday tracking cues from international market. Expectation of breakthrough in US debt deal weighed on precious metals. U.S. President Joe Biden and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy would finalize a deal on the debt ceiling as soon as Sunday
* Trading Strategy: After recent fall in precious metals, we expect gold price should take support at $1950 and relief rally likely to see. Investors are looking for more cues from FOMC chair Powell speech due later on today. For the day Comex spot gold having supports at $ 1950/$1935 and resistance at $1980/$2005. MCX Gold June future having supports at Rs 59480/59170 and resistances at Rs 60080/60400. MCX Silver July future has support at 71819 and resistance at 73700.
ENERGY
* MCX Crude oil future declined around 1.40% on Thursday tacking cue from international market. While Natural gas price surged more than 7.0% on Thursday after US weekly storage data came lower than expected. Additionally natural gas price supported by supply concern after lower Canada export, wildfires kept gas exports from Canada near a 25-month low
* Trading Strategy: MCX Crude oil June future has immediate resistance at 6080 once price cross this level rally will likely to extend towards 6200 level. Area around 5920/5880 acts as short term supports for the day. Natural Gas May future after price crossed above 205 level now next resistance at 220.80 while 205 act as immediate support for the day
BASE METALS
* Copper price marginally declined by 0.65 closed at 719 level on Thursday as pullback in US dollar and weak demand from top consumer China. While Zinc price declined by 1.70% on Thursday as expectation higher supply, the global zinc market surplus climbed to 26,700 tones in March, while global lead market deficit widened to 21,000 tones, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed on Thursday.
* Trading Strategy: MCX Copper May future should retest resistance at 724, successfully settle above this level open further upside to 727 level, area around 715/712 act as short term supports. MCX Zinc May future has support at 222 and resistance at 227.0 for the day.
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