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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 56815 amid weaker dollar and as investors positioned for U.S. economic data this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's future policy. Further comments at the end of last week from Fed Governor Christopher Waller that he supported another step down to 25 basis points (bps) has added to the supportive narrative for gold and a weaker U.S. dollar. Investors will be scanning the U.S. fourth quarter GDP growth estimates on Thursday and U.S. personal spending data on Friday, before the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting. The Fed raised rates by 50 bps last month after delivering four straight 75-bp hikes. India plans to slash the import duty on gold because higher taxes have made it more profitable for smugglers, who can offer hefty discounts and denting the market share of banks and refiners. The duty cut by the world's second-biggest consumer could lift retail sales by making gold cheaper ahead of peak demand season and support global prices. It could also revive operations of local gold refineries, which nearly suspended refining for the past two months as they could not compete with grey market operators. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.43% to settle at 8480 while prices are up 157 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 56580 and below same could see a test of 56344 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56986, a move above could see prices testing 57156.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 56344-57156.
* Gold prices gains amid weaker dollar and as investors positioned for U.S. economic data this week
* U.S. fourth quarter GDP growth estimates due on Thursday
* Growth concerns weighing on the white metals


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 67964 on profit booking as several Fed policymakers threw some cold water into expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon slow its aggressive tightening campaign. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, considered a dove, said rates would need to stay elevated to bring down inflation to its 2% target. Still, investors are not blindly buying this tightening narrative, with speculation about a recession prompting bets that the Federal Reserve will eventually cut rates later this year. Data released last week showed that Americans curbed spending while business investment fell, heightening concerns that the economy may be moving closer to recession. Money markets are now pricing an over 95% chance that the US central bank will hike rates by 25 basis points in February. The euro extended gains to approach $1.09, a fresh nine-month high, as bets increased for more aggressive ECB monetary policy tightening while markets started pricing in a downshift from the Fed. The ECB is set to raise interest rates by 50 bps in both February and March and will continue to increase the borrowing cost in the months after, ECB governing council member Klaas Knot said. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.13% to settle at 16606 while prices are down -583 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66788 and below same could see a test of 65613 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69119, a move above could see prices testing 70275.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 65613-70275.
* Silver dropped on profit booking as Fed policymakers threw some cold water into expectations that the Fed will soon slow its aggressive tightening campaign.
* US 10-Year Treasury Yield Bounces Back To 3.5%
* Euro extended gains to approach $1.09, a fresh nine-month high


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.28% at 6705 amid signs of more buying from China after it eased COVID-19 restrictions and concern that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply. Investor confidence has surged on hopes around China's demand recovery after the recent easing of travel restrictions. Chinese oil demand rose by nearly 1 million barrels per day (bpd) sequentially to 15.41 million bpd in November, the highest level since February, according to recent data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative. China is the second largest importer of crude oil in the world. Executive director of International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, had said last week that energy markets could be tighter in 2023, especially if the Chinese economy recovers and the Russian oil industry struggles under sanctions. Both OPEC and IEA mentioned Chinese demand recovery as the driving force behind oil consumption in 2023. On the supply side, the EU and the G7 nations will cap prices of refined Russian products starting in February, in complement to their price cap on Russian crude in place since December and an EU embargo on imports of Russian oil by sea. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 29.37% to settle at 5717 while prices are up 85 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6619 and below same could see a test of 6532 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6764, a move above could see prices testing 6822.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6532-6822.
* Crude oil rose amid signs of more buying from China after it eased COVID-19 restrictions and concern that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply.
* Investor confidence has surged on hopes around China's demand recovery after the recent easing of travel restrictions.
* Chinese oil demand rose by nearly 1 million bpd sequentially to 15.41 million bpd in November, the highest level since February.


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.47% at 271.7 in anticipation of higher heating demand due to cold spell forecasts. Still, soaring domestic production and high storage levels capped further gains. US natural gas production is likely to grow more than 2% this year to a record daily average of 100.3 billion cubic feet, the Energy Information Administration said. At the same time, EIA data showed that utilities unexpectedly injected 11 bcf into storage in the week ending January 13th. Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor the situation at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, which was expected to restart operation in the second half of the month, even though it was still pending regulatory approvals. U.S. gas stockpiles are about 1% above the five-year (2018-2022) average for this time of year. Meanwhile, recent increases in crude futures to a seven-week high boosted oil's premium over gas to its highest since March 2022. Over the last several years that premium has prompted U.S. energy firms to focus drilling activity on finding more oil instead of gas. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 121.5 bcfd this week to 130.3 bcfd next week and 139.7 bcfd in two weeks. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -48.09% to settle at 6877 while prices are up 9.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 261.6 and below same could see a test of 251.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 286.1, a move above could see prices testing 300.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 251.4-300.4.
* Natural gas rose in anticipation of higher heating demand due to cold spell forecasts.
* Still, soaring domestic production and high storage levels capped further gains.
* US natural gas production is likely to grow more than 2% this year to a record daily average of 100.3 billion cubic feet.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.94% at 781.35 on improving prospects for demand in top consumer China, low inventories and a weaker dollar. Also, on the agenda is a spate of U.S. data on growth, manufacturing and price pressures, which may yield clues to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy intentions. Worries about supplies from Peru due to social unrest are also helping to support copper prices. Demand for industrial metals overall is expected to pick up soon after the Chinese holiday as companies restock ahead of a pick-up in manufacturing activity. Traders are watching copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses, which at 78,300 tonnes are heading towards 10-month lows hit last November. Cancelled warrants at 37% of the total suggest more copper is due to leave LME warrant. The world's refined copper market saw an 89,000 tonne deficit in November, compared with a surplus of 68,000 tonnes in October, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output in November was 2.2 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.3 million tonnes. For the first eleven months of 2022, the market was in a 384,000 tonne deficit compared with a 381,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 38.2% to settle at 4587 while prices are up 7.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 777 and below same could see a test of 772.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 784.4, a move above could see prices testing 787.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 772.6-787.4.
* Copper prices rose on improving prospects for demand in top consumer China, low inventories and a weaker dollar.
* Worries about supplies from Peru due to social unrest are also helping to support copper prices.
* Copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses, which at 78,300 tonnes are heading towards 10-month lows hit last November.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.12% at 298.35 with prospects of an economic recovery in top consumer China and a weaker dollar underpinning the market, although trading was subdued as the Chinese market was closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. The demand is expected to rise after Beijing in December dropped some of the toughest COVID restrictions, which had battered the world's second-biggest economy. However, concerns linger over a possible surge in infections, as the country reopens and New Year celebrations begin. London Metal Exchange zinc inventories have tumbled to the lowest levels in more than three decades, but rising stocks and tepid demand in top metals consumer China are helping to dampen concern about potential shortages. Shutdowns of some European zinc smelters this year due to high power prices has been a key reason behind low LME stocks of the metal mostly used for galvanising steel. Three-month LME zinc rallied along with other base metals in recent weeks as speculators cheered the reopening of China from COVID-19 restrictions, touching the highest in over four months. Some investors have also highlighted a slide in LME zinc stocks, which have plummeted 89% over the past 12 months to 20,000 tonnes, the weakest since July 1989. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 21.75% to settle at 2306 while prices are up 3.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 295.4 and below same could see a test of 292.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 300.1, a move above could see prices testing 301.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 292.4-301.8.
* Zinc rose with prospects of an economic recovery in top consumer China and a weaker dollar underpinning the market.
* The demand is expected to rise after Beijing in December dropped some of the toughest COVID restrictions.
* However, concerns linger over a possible surge in infections, as the country reopens and New Year celebrations begin.



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.53% at 226.2 on bets of a demand recovery in top consumer China after it removed COVID-19 restrictions and amid expectations of a slowdown in the pace of U.S. rate hikes. Global primary aluminium output in December rose 6.12% year on year to 5.859 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.47 million tonnes in December, the IAI said. China's aluminium imports in 2022 fell 25.6% from a year earlier as COVID-restrictions reduced consumption amid record high domestic production. Last year, the world's biggest aluminium producer and consumer brought in 2.39 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products, which includes primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Demand for the light metal used in construction, transportation and packaging sectors was hampered by China's strict anti-coronavirus measures and its ailing property sector. Economic growth in the world's second-largest economy in 2022 slumped to one of its worst levels in nearly half. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets stood at 744,000 mt as of January 19, up 102,000 mt or 15.8% from a week ago and 252,000 mt from the end of December. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 54.84% to settle at 4012 while prices are up 3.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 223.8 and below same could see a test of 221.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 227.6, a move above could see prices testing 229.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 221.4-229.
* Aluminum gains on bets of a demand recovery in China after it removed COVID-19 restrictions
* Global aluminium output rises 6.1% y/y in December – IAI
* China 2022 aluminium imports fall 26% on lower demand


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.82% at 1013.8 on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -9.7 Rupees to end at 1165.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 18.12% to settle at 880 while prices are down -18.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1008.2 and below same could see a test of 1002.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1022.7, a move above could see prices testing 1031.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1002.6-1031.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -9.7 Rupees to end at 1165.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.79% at 7884 on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand. Turmeric production in the 2021-22 crop year (June-July) has been projected at 13.31 lakh tonnes against 11.24 lakh tonnes the previous year with the area increasing to 3.5 lakh hectares from 2.93 lakh hectares. In the first advance estimate, the crop was pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7421.25 Rupees gained 29.65 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.82% to settle at 12280 while prices are down -144 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7804 and below same could see a test of 7724 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8000, a move above could see prices testing 8116.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7724-8116.
* Turmeric prices dropped on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand.
* Turmeric production in 2023 has been projected at 5.13 Lakh Mt against 4.67 Lakh Mt the previous year
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7421.25 Rupees gained 29.65 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -6% at 32215 on profit booking after prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -966.3 Rupees to end at 33137.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.76% to settle at 4755 while prices are down -2055 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 31590 and below same could see a test of 30960 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33475, a move above could see prices testing 34730.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 30960-34730.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,830.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -966.3 Rupees to end at 33137.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

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