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Gold yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 55712 as U.S. rate hike worries returned to the fore after two Fed officials said that the U.S. central bank will have to keep raising rates to somewhere above 5 percent to keep inflation under control. San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said she expects the central bank to raise rates to somewhere over 5%, while Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic noted that policymakers should hike above 5% by early in the second quarter and hold them there for a long time. Federal Reserve policymakers say fresh inflation data out later this week will help them decide whether they can slow the pace of interest rate hikes at their upcoming meeting, to just a quarter point increase instead of the larger jumps they used for most of 2022. If U.S. consumer price data confirms the cooling seen in most recent monthly jobs report, Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic told that he would have to take a quarter point increase "more seriously and to move in that direction." She, like Bostic, expects the Fed policy rate – now at 4.25% to 4.5% – to need to rise to a 5% to 5.25% range to do the job on inflation. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.76% to settle at 12437 while prices are down -152 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 55584 and below same could see a test of 55457 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55894, a move above could see prices testing 56077.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 55457-56077.
* Gold dropped as U.S. rate hike worries returned to the fore after two Fed officials
* Fed’s Bostic that policymakers should hike above 5% by early in the second quarter and hold them there for a long time.
* Fed's Powell: Without congressional laws, inappropriate for us to use our monetary or supervisory tools to promote a greener economy.



Silver yesterday settled down by -0.78% at 68363 as the dollar strengthened as hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers sparked a fresh wave of buying for the greenback. San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly noted that she expects interest rates to rise beyond 5% in 2023. Her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic echoed a similar view by saying that policymakers should hike above 5% by early in the second quarter and hold rates there for a long time. The dollar has been under pressure since November as signs that inflation is cooling and speculation of a US recession tempered some expectations that the Fed will continue to hike rates aggressively. Slower-than-expected wage growth in the United States threw cold water on a batch of data pointing to a tight labor market, raising convictions that the Fed might not be as hawkish as previously signaled. Projections of eased policy also supported demand for silver as an industrial input for goods with high electricity conduction needs, which was reflected in the sharp rebound of solar energy equities. On the supply side, shortage concerns drove silver to outperform gold and palladium in 2022. COMEX inventories levels saw an aggressive decline in the period, and London Bullion Market Association stockpiles fell considerably amid outflows to India. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.29% to settle at 19141 while prices are down -537 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68064 and below same could see a test of 67766 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68677, a move above could see prices testing 68992.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67766-68992.
* Silver dropped as the dollar strengthened as hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers sparked a fresh wave of buying for the greenback
* San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly noted that she expects interest rates to rise beyond 5% in 2023.
* U.S. manufacturing contracts, prices decline in Dec -ISM



Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 6177 as investors worried about fuel demand as the global economy slows and COVID-19 cases grow in China. Barclays said it remained "constructive" on oil prices, but cautioned that a worsening in global manufacturing activity could pose a downside risk to its current $98 per barrel Brent price forecast for 2023. The world's second-largest economy and biggest oil importer, China, announced more financial aid to households and companies to shore up growth after the nation ended its Covid-Zero policy. Still, persistent fears of a demand-sapping global recession triggered by an aggressive tightening campaign from major central banks continued to hang over the markets. On the supply side, OPEC and its allies decided in December to stick with their policy of curtailing oil output, restricting global supplies by 2 million barrels per day, a move due to run through the end of 2023. U.S. total product supplied of petroleum products fell by a record 4.6 million barrels per day (bpd) last week to 18.2 million bpd, the lowest since June 2021, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data going back to 1990. U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in October fell by 22,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 243,000 bpd. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.44% to settle at 9592 while prices are down -15 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6096 and below same could see a test of 6016 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6235, a move above could see prices testing 6294.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6016-6294.
* Crude oil dropped as investors worried about fuel demand as the global economy slows and COVID-19 cases grow in China.
* Barclays sees $15-25/bbl downside to its oil view if slowdown worsens
* U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in October fell by 22,000 bpd from the previous month to 243,000 bpd.



Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -11.39% at 301.1 on rising output and forecasts for lower heating demand than previously expected for this week. Gas speculators last week boosted their net short futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a third week in a row to their highest since October 2022, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Traders said the market's biggest uncertainty remains when Freeport LNG will restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas. After several delays from October to November and then to December, Freeport now expects the facility to return in the second half of January, pending regulatory approvals. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.3 bcfd so far in January, up from 96.7 bcfd in December. That compares with a monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. With the weather expected to remain warmer-than-normal through late January, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would ease from 121.2 bcfd this week to 120.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 18.15% to settle at 27102 while prices are down -38.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 287.7 and below same could see a test of 274.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 321.9, a move above could see prices testing 342.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 274.4-342.8.
* Natural gas fell on rising output and forecasts for lower heating demand than previously expected for this week.
* The market's biggest uncertainty remains when Freeport LNG will restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas.
* Gas speculators last week boosted their net short futures and options positions for a third week in a row to their highest since October 2022.




Copper yesterday settled up by 0.73% at 757.1 supported by expectations of stronger demand and looming supply concerns. Copper will likely move into a supply deficit this year and its prices may rule higher than in 2022 targeting $10,000 a tonne. Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to average around $9,750 this year, with the average price jumping to $12,000 by 2024. Currently, copper is quoting $8,385 a tonne for the three months delivery contract and $8,362 for cash delivery. Fitch Solutions said it was raising its copper price forecast to $8,500 a tonne from $8,400 previously, “as demand edges higher alongside a comparatively weaker supply outlook”. Physical demand of metals is also expected to slow as China is about to enter its week-long holiday break to celebrate the Lunar New Year during Jan. 23-27. Yangshan copper premium, which indicates demand for imported copper into China, fell to $37.50 a tonne, from $152.50 a tonne seen less than three months earlier. The world's refined copper market saw a 46,000 tonne surplus in October, compared with a deficit of 85,000 tonnes in September, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.14% to settle at 5103 while prices are up 5.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 749.5 and below same could see a test of 741.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 761.2, a move above could see prices testing 765.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 741.9-765.3.
* Copper gained supported by expectations of stronger demand and looming supply concerns.
* China reopened its border after years of restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
* Yangshan copper premium, fell to $37.50 a tonne, from $152.50 a tonne seen less than three months earlier.



Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 279.5 as traders gauged the risks of a global economic downtrend and weak consumption, shedding gains logged in the previous session after China reopened its borders. The global economy is still at risk of a recession and the U.S. dollar could still firm up even more amid prospects of further interest rate hikes. China's refined zinc output was 525,800 mt in December 2022, a month-on-month increase of 1,100 mt or 0.21%, and a year-on-year growth of 12,500 mt or 2.43%. Output in 2022 totalled 5.98 million mt, down 1.77% from 2021. Domestic refined zinc output in December increased compared with November, but was slightly lower than market expectations as a large-sized smelter in north-west China reduced its output in December after completing its annual production plan ahead of schedule. In addition, a smelter in north China cut the output due to equipment failure. The increase in output was mainly driven by the smelters in Shaanxi operating at full capacity and the smelters in Sichuan resuming the production in December. In 2023, the domestic benchmark TCs of zinc concentrate (Zn 50%) stand at 5,500-6,000 yuan/mt in metal content, ensuring high profit at smelters. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.84% to settle at 1763 while prices are down -1.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 277.4 and below same could see a test of 275.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 282, a move above could see prices testing 284.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 275.3-284.5.
* Zinc prices eased as traders gauged the risks of a global economic downtrend and weak consumption
* The global economy is still at risk of a recession and the U.S. dollar could still firm up even more amid prospects of further interest rate hikes.
* China's refined zinc output was 525,800 mt in December 2022, a month-on-month increase of 1,100 mt or 0.21%




Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.07% at 211.1 as Aluminium producer Alcoa Corp said it expects production at its partially owned Kwinana alumina refinery in Western Australia to be cut by about 30% due to a shortage of gas supply. A unit of the refinery, majority owned by Alcoa in a joint venture with Alumina Ltd, has been taken offline, hitting process flows, the aluminium producer said in statement. China's banks extended CNY 1.4 trillion in new yuan loans in December 2022, up from CNY 1.21 trillion in the previous month and above market expectations of CNY 1.1 trillion, following Beijing's latest efforts to boost growth in the world's second-biggest economy, which was hit hard by COVID-19 lockdowns and slowing global demand. China produced 3.44 million mt of aluminium in December 2022 (31 calendar days), up 8.3% on the year. The daily output dropped 261 mt/day on the month to 110,900 mt. The output totalled 40.08 million mt from January to December 2022, an increase of 4.1% on the year. The domestic operating capacity of aluminium in December declined slightly month-on-month as the aluminium smelters in Guizhou were forced to stop the production twice amid the power shortage in late December, which led to an output cut of 450,000 mt. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.67% to settle at 4833 while prices are up 0.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 209.2 and below same could see a test of 207.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.9, a move above could see prices testing 214.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 207.3-214.7.
* Aluminum rose as Alcoa's Australia unit flags 30% production cut at alumina refinery
* China's banks extended CNY 1.4 trillion in new yuan loans in December 2022, up from CNY 1.21 trillion in the previous month
* China produced 3.44 million mt of aluminium in December 2022 (31 calendar days), up 8.3% on the year.



Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 1067.4 on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Oct 2022 has dropped by 20.15 percent at 1,249.02 tonnes as compared to 1,564.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 220.67 tonnes in September 2022 showing a drop of 35.73%. In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 279.00 tonnes in October 2021 showing a drop of 49.17%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 9.9 Rupees to end at 1203 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 1018 while prices are down -7.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1060.7 and below same could see a test of 1054 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1077.5, a move above could see prices testing 1087.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1054-1087.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 9.9 Rupees to end at 1203 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Oct 2022 has dropped by 20.15 percent at 1,249.02 tonnes.
* In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 279.00 tonnes in October 2021



Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.63% at 7834 on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand. Turmeric production in the 2021-22 crop year (June-July) has been projected at 13.31 lakh tonnes against 11.24 lakh tonnes the previous year with the area increasing to 3.5 lakh hectares from 2.93 lakh hectares. In the first advance estimate, the crop was pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes. Turmeric exports during Apr- Oct 2022 has rose by 11.09 percent at 99,569.88 tonnes as compared to 89,626.39 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 11,178.11 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 13,990.65 tonnes in September 2022 showing a fall of 20.10%. In the month of October 2022 around 11,178.11 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,534.87 tonnes in October 2021 showing a fall of 10.82%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7399.75 Rupees gained 31.75 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.04% to settle at 12440 while prices are down -130 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7778 and below same could see a test of 7724 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7914, a move above could see prices testing 7996.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7724-7996.
* Turmeric prices dropped on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand.
* Turmeric production in the 2021-22 crop year (June-July) has been projected at 13.31 lakh tonnes against 11.24 lakh tonnes the previous year
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7399.75 Rupees gained 31.75 Rupees.



Jeera yesterday settled down by -3.48% at 35795 on profit booking after prices rose amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr- Oct 2022 has dropped by 18.92 percent at 1,22,015.13 tonnes as compared to 1,50,479.11 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 12,427.86 tonnes jeera was exported as against 18,081.78 tonnes in September 2022 showing a drop of 31.27%. In the month of October 2022 around 12,427.86 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 11,260.72 tonnes in October 2021 showing a rise of 10.36%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -182.05 Rupees to end at 34959.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.89% to settle at 4053 while prices are down -1290 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 35310 and below same could see a test of 34825 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 36590, a move above could see prices testing 37385.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 34825-37385.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose above amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -182.05 Rupees to end at 34959.4 Rupees per 100 kg.

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