Chana trading range for the day is 5197-5365 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.3% at 49143 as investors awaited key inflation readings that could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy going forward. Yields on U.S. 10-year notes were a touch higher after sliding 7 basis points on Friday, curbing interest in non-yielding gold. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said President Joe Biden’s $4 trillion spending plan would be good for the United States even if it contributes to rising inflation and results in higher interest rates. Gold imports by India plummeted in May after a deadly new wave of the pandemic shuttered stores and restricted mobility, wiping out demand during key festivals and weddings. Inbound purchases slumped to 11.3 tons last month from 70.3 tons in April. Still, that’s higher than the 1.3 tons imported in May last year when the country had come to a standstill due to a nationwide lockdown. Indian gold dealers offered the biggest discounts in 8-1/2 months this week as COVID-19-related restrictions stifled consumption, while top consumer China flipped to a discount for the first time since late January. Dealers offered discounts of up to $12 an ounce, the highest since mid-September 2020, over official domestic prices inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies versus $10 discounts last week Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.68% to settled at 11899 while prices up 149 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48891 and below same could see a test of 48640 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49284, a move above could see prices testing 49426.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48640-49426.
* Gold prices steadied as investors awaited key inflation readings that could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy going forward.
* Janet Yellen said President Joe Biden’s $4 trillion spending plan would be good for the United States even if it contributes to rising inflation
* Gold imports plunge in India as second wave of Covid-19 slashes demand
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.39% at 71817 remained supported after a weaker-than-expected U.S. monthly jobs report calmed investor fears about the Fed reining in monetary stimulus in the near future. The Labor Department report showed job growth in the U.S. reaccelerated in May but still fell short of estimates, helping ease inflation and tapering jitters. Yellen said that President Joe Biden's spending plan would be beneficial to the economy, even if it triggers higher inflation and a rate hike move by the U.S Federal Reserve. The President's $4 trillion spending plan is positive for the economy, although it may spur inflation that persists into 2022, Yellen said. Yellen added that a "slightly higher" interest rate environment would be an advantage. Investors await key U.S. inflation data due later this week for more indications about the Fed's policy outlook. Investors awaited U.S. inflation data and clarity on when the Federal Reserve might start tapering economic support measures. Inflation will remain in focus, with the U.S. consumer price index report due on Thursday, and central bank meetings scheduled in Europe and Canada. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.83% to settled at 11188 while prices up 278 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 71148 and below same could see a test of 70478 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72176, a move above could see prices testing 72534.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 70478-72534.
* Silver remained supported after a weaker-than-expected U.S. monthly jobs report calmed investor fears about the Fed reining in monetary stimulus in the near future.
* The Labor Department report showed job growth in the U.S. reaccelerated in May but still fell short of estimates, helping ease inflation and tapering jitters.
* Investors awaited U.S. inflation data and clarity on when the Federal Reserve might start tapering economic support measures.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.45% at 5048 as investors eyed the outcome of talks between Iran and world powers over a nuclear deal that is set to boost crude supplies. However downside seen limited underpinned by a brighter economic and fuel-demand outlook. Fuel demand is rebounding in the United States and Europe after governments loosened COVID-19 restrictions ahead of summer travel. Global oil demand is expected to exceed supplies in the second half despite a gradual easing of supply cuts by OPEC+ producers. Iran and global powers will enter a fifth round of talks on June 10 in Vienna that could include Washington lifting economic sanctions on Iranian oil exports. China’s crude oil imports in May dipped 14.6% from a high base a year earlier, with maintenance at refineries limiting consumption of the raw material. May arrivals were 40.97 million tonnes, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed, equivalent to 9.65 million barrels per day (bpd). That compares to 9.82 million bpd in April and 11.3 million bpd in May last year when Chinese buyers snapped up cheap oil amid the spread of the coronavirus. China January-May crude oil imports up 2.3% from a year earlier at 221 million tonnes, according to General Administration of Customs statement. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13% to settled at 9329 while prices down -23 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5014 and below same could see a test of 4981 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5082, a move above could see prices testing 5117.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4981-5117.
* Crude oil dropped as investors eyed the outcome of talks between Iran and world powers over a nuclear deal that is set to boost crude supplies.
* However downside seen limited underpinned by a brighter economic and fuel-demand outlook
* China's May crude oil imports drop 15% on year as overhauls bite
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.77% at 222.6 on forecasts for less hot weather and a reduction in the amount of gas power generators will burn to keep air conditioners humming next week than previously expected. Prices were down on rising output and lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports despite near-record pipeline exports to Mexico. U.S. speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges last week for the fourth time in five weeks. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 91.0 bcfd in May but still well below the monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 88.2 bcfd this week to 88.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv predicted on Friday as a slightly less hot forecast will reduce air conditioning use. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.2 bcfd so far in June, down from 10.8 bcfd in May and the all-time high of 11.5 bcfd in April. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.34% to settled at 14072 while prices down -4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 220.2 and below same could see a test of 217.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 225.7, a move above could see prices testing 228.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 217.9-228.9.
* Natural gas slipped on forecasts for less hot weather and a reduction in the amount of gas power generators
* Prices were down on rising output and lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports despite near-record pipeline exports to Mexico.
* U.S. speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions last week for the fourth time in five weeks.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 740.6 as a lower-than-expected Chinese exports data sparked concerns of weakening demand for the red metal, which is often considered a bellwether of the global economy due to its wide industrial uses. The May U.S. payrolls report showed economic recovery was on track, but not so hot that it might bring forward a policy tapering from the Federal Reserve. Global copper smelting extended its rebound in May, touching fresh highs for the year as operations continued to take advantage of strong prices, data from satellite surveillance of copper plants showed. China's copper imports fell 8% in May from the previous month, customs data showed, as record-high prices further eroded buying interest in the world's top consumer of the metal. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products fell for a second consecutive month to 445,725 tonnes in May, the General Administration of Customs said. That was down from 484,890 tonnes in April but up from 436,030 tonnes in May 2020. Growth in China's manufacturing sector, a key copper consumer, slowed slightly in May as raw materials costs rose at their fastest pace in over a decade. Imports of copper concentrate, or partially processed copper ore, in May totalled 1.95 million tonnes, up from 1.921 million tonnes in April, customs said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.14% to settled at 4762 while prices down -2.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 735 and below same could see a test of 729.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 744.8, a move above could see prices testing 748.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 729.2-748.8.
* Copper prices fell as a lower-than-expected Chinese exports data sparked concerns of weakening demand for the red metal
* China Jan-May unwrought copper imports up 8.4% at 2.37 million tonnes
* Global copper smelting extended its rebound in May, touching fresh highs for the year as operations continued to take advantage of strong prices
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 237.3 as support seen after data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 9,500 mt from last Friday June 4 to 142,700 mt as of Monday June 7. The stocks were down 11,700 mt from last Monday May 31. Stocks in Shanghai decreased as downstream purchases at low prices increased slightly, and smelter maintenance affected the arrivals. However upside seen limited as the supply at smelting end gradually recovered in June, and the import zinc continued to flow in. The number of nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 559,000 in May, and the unemployment rate in May stood at 5.8%, which was the lowest since March last year. In south China's Guangdong, market arrivals were still limited, the downstream purchase volume rose, which led to the continuous decrease in stocks. Stocks in Tianjin fell as the downstream galvanizing orders recovered, and the enterprise zinc ingot inventories were low, leading to a certain purchasing demand. Investor morale in the euro zone rose for the fourth month in a row in June, reaching its highest level since February 2018, lifted by reopening restaurants and tourism resuming as coronavirus cases fall, a survey showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.28% to settled at 2172 while prices up 0.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 234.6 and below same could see a test of 231.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 239, a move above could see prices testing 240.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 231.8-240.6.
* Zinc gained as data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai decreased 9,500 mt.
* However upside seen limited as the supply at smelting end gradually recovered in June, and the import zinc continued to flow in.
* The number of nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 559,000 in May, and the unemployment rate in May stood at 5.8%.
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 1308.7 amid signs of weakening demand for the metal after China's export data came in below market expectations. The world's second-largest economy reported a 27.9% annual sales growth in May, slower than the 32.3% rise in April and below forecasts of 32.1%, due in part to a COVID-19 outbreak in manufacturing hub Guangdong. Also, data released last week pointed to a deceleration in China's appetite for overseas metal amid tightening financial condition and slowing credit growth. China’s imports grew at their fastest pace in 10 years in May, fuelled by surging demand for raw materials, although export growth slowed more than expected amid disruptions caused by COVID-19 cases at the country’s major southern ports. While a brisk recovery in developed markets has bolstered demand for Chinese products, a global semiconductor shortage, higher raw material and freight costs, logistics bottlenecks and a strengthening yuan have dimmed the outlook for the world’s largest exporting nation. High production schedules in the new energy and stainless steel industry have improved nickel fundamentals. Meanwhile, prices of raw material like nickel sulphate and high-grade NPI have been firm after declines in nickel prices. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.45% to settled at 2108 while prices down -5.1 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1292.6 and below same could see a test of 1276.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1319.4, a move above could see prices testing 1330.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1276.5-1330.1.
* Nickel prices dropped amid signs of weakening demand for the metal after China's export data came in below market expectations.
* Russian nickel producer Nornickel has resumed ore mining at the second of its two mines hit by flooding this year.
* Data pointed to a deceleration in China's appetite for overseas metal amid tightening financial condition and slowing credit growth.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.45% at 190.05 due to renewed rumours of sell-off by the State Reserve Bureau and concerns of tightening liquidity triggered by unusually positive US economic data. China's exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products were 439,097 tonnes in May. That compares with 437,284.50 tonnes in April, and 382,934.50 tonnes in May 2020. The number of nonfarm payrolls in the US reached 559,000 in May, about twice that in April, but lower than the median estimate of economists of 675,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8%. Biden attributed the new jobs to the stimulus bill, while Republicans criticized the employment report as weaker than expected. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the Biden administration should push forward the $4 trillion spending plan, even if it will trigger inflation and higher interest rates until next year. Fed maintained the loose policies and let inflations expand. The market did not give positive reaction to the strong US economic data. Investor morale in the euro zone rose for the fourth month in a row in June, reaching its highest level since February 2018, lifted by reopening restaurants and tourism resuming as coronavirus cases fall, a survey showed. Sentix’s index for the euro zone climbed to 28.1 from 21.0 in May. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.71% to settled at 1987 while prices down -2.8 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 188.7 and below same could see a test of 187.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 192.5, a move above could see prices testing 194.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 187.2-194.8.
* Aluminium dropped due to renewed rumours of sell-off by the State Reserve Bureau and concerns of tightening liquidity
* China's exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products were 439,097 tonnes in May.
* Investor morale in the euro zone rose for the fourth month in a row in June, reaching its highest level since February 2018
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 918.7 as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments. As of now, daily arrival of fresh oil is relatively small (10-15 drums across Uttar Pradesh). Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. However downside seen limited due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Overall post-lock-down demand will be likely to improve as demand from the health industry will likely continue also as per CIMAP (Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants) Herbal products may boost immunity to avoid infection and demand for same has improved significantly since last year. Mentha exhibits important biological activities. For that reason, it has been used through the years as a remedy for respiratory diseases like bronchitis, sinusitis, tuberculosis, and the common cold. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -19.9 Rupees to end at 1018.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10% to settled at 33 while prices down -2.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 914.6 and below same could see a test of 910.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 923.4, a move above could see prices testing 928.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 910.5-928.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -19.9 Rupees to end at 1018.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments.
* Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days.
* However downside seen limited due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 3.49% at 6977 as China’s soybean imports in May rose from the previous month, customs data showed, as more cargoes from top supplier Brazil cleared customs. China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 9.61 million tonnes of the oilseed in May, up 29% from 7.45 million tonnes in April, when some Brazilian shipments were delayed, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. It could also boost Indian exports of animal feed ingredient soymeal to places such as Bangladesh, Japan, Vietnam and Iran, industry officials said. According to the third advance estimate, the total production of oilseeds in the country during 2020-21 is estimated to be a record 36.57 million tonnes which is 3.35 million tonnes more than the production of 33.22 million tonnes during 2019-20. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 163 Rupees to 7477 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.3% to settled at 29350 while prices up 235 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6873 and below same could see a test of 6768 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7047, a move above could see prices testing 7116.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6768-7116.
* Soyabean prices gained as China's May soybean imports rise 29% on-month on delayed Brazil arrivals
* China Jan-May soybean imports up 12.8% at 38.23 million tonnes
* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 163 Rupees to 7477 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.5% at 1403.2 on concerns about tight global supplies of edible oils. India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month, to reduce food costs in the world's biggest vegetable oil importer. While no decision has been made, the tax reduction could lower local prices and boost consumption, giving support to Malaysian palm oil, along with soy and sunflower oil prices, and dampening prices of local oilseeds such as rapeseed, soybean and groundnut. Higher soybean output could limit edible oil imports. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. Edible Oil industry cautioned the government against resorting to any knee-jerk reaction of lowering import duties to cool down domestic prices, saying it could have a 'very negative’ impact on oilseed farmers, kharif planting for which will start in the coming few weeks. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1434.4 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 24.11% to settled at 18610 while prices up 20.8 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1392 and below same could see a test of 1380 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1413, a move above could see prices testing 1422.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1380-1422.
* Ref soyoil ended with gains on concerns about tight global supplies of edible oils.
* India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month
* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1434.4 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.44% at 1151.4 due to global edible oil supply woes after prices seen pressure as surveys pegged Malaysia’s May stockpile to climb to an eight-month peak. Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles at the end of May likely jumped 6.3% on-month to their highest in eight months, as production rose amid sluggish exports. Inventories at the world's second-largest producer are seen at 1.64 million tonnes, their highest since last September. Production is pegged to rise 3.4% from April to 1.58 million tonnes, its highest in seven months, as plantations enter the seasonal higher production months. Exports in May are expected to climb 0.9% month-on-month to 1.35 million tonnes, with cargo surveyor data showing slightly smaller shipments to the world's biggest palm oil buyer, India. India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices last month hit record highs, which may support palm oil prices. The market will be anticipating lower domestic consumption and higher supply in June. A labour shortage in Malaysia's plantations that has curbed output throughout the coronavirus pandemic is expected to prolong as a resurgence of COVID-19 cases forced the nation into a two-week lockdown. The palm oil supply chain is allowed to operate during the lockdown, but local consumption will likely decline due to the closure of hotels, restaurants and catering services. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 12 Rupees to end at 1168 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.66% to settled at 5157 while prices up 16.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1139.4 and below same could see a test of 1127.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1163.2, a move above could see prices testing 1174.9.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1127.3-1174.9.
* Crude palm oil gained due to global edible oil supply woes after prices seen pressure as surveys pegged Malaysia’s May stockpile to climb
* May stocks seen 6.3% higher at 1.64 mln T
* Output seen up 3.4% at 1.58 mln T
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 12 Rupees to end at 1168 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.95% at 7145 as support seen after COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. The decision to ban the adulteration of mustard oil from June 8, the demand for soybean degum and palmolein has weakened. Due to this, the prices of these imported oils are also very soft. The ban on adulteration of edible oils would be beneficial for both domestic consumers and producers. While oil without adulteration will be available, its production will increase in the country. According to sources, the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. The daily arrival of mustard was 15-20 thousand bags in Najafgarh Mandi, Delhi. It was reduced from 500 to 600 bags. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.85% to settled at 56890 while prices up 137 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7085 and below same could see a test of 7024 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7188, a move above could see prices testing 7230.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7024-7230.
* Mustard gained as support seen after COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils
* Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.
* The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.93% at 7852 as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7556.8 Rupees dropped -21.6 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.33% to settled at 6700 while prices down -74 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7808 and below same could see a test of 7764 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7918, a move above could see prices testing 7984.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7764-7984.
* Turmeric dropped as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.
* However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* At least 50 per cent of the crop cultivated in the Maharashtra growing regions are estimated to have arrived at the terminal agricultural markets.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7556.8 Rupees dropped -21.6 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.61% at 13960 on some short covering after prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 44.75 Rupees to end at 13894.75 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.8% to settled at 3492 while prices up 85 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13870 and below same could see a test of 13785 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14045, a move above could see prices testing 14135.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13785-14135.
* Jeera gained on some short covering after prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases.
* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.
* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 44.75 Rupees to end at 13894.75 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.88% at 24380 amid firmness in overseas prices after a weekly federal report showed higher export sales of the natural fiber. Cotton sowing area grows despite of delays. Despite sowing of cotton stretching beyond the ideal sowing time in Punjab, it is close to reaching the target for 2021-22. The state agriculture department had the target of sowing cotton on 3.25 lakh hectares the crop had been sown over 3.01 lakh hectares. New figures show global cotton stock levels are set to increase to 22m tonnes by the end of 2020/21 as the stocks-to-use ratio declines. According to the latest update from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), China’s stocks, however, are expected to decline as the rest of the world’s expands slightly. Cotton consumption is expected to increase by 2% to 25.3m tonnes as the global economy continues to recover. Decreases in Brazil, India and the US have caused a reduction in the 2020/21 global production estimate but cotton production — along with consumption and trade — are all expected to increase in 2021/22: Production is expected to increase by 5% to 25.5m tonnes, with increases in planted areas in the US and West Africa. In spot market, Cotton gained by 360 Rupees to end at 24130 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -20.92% to settled at 5784 while prices up 450 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 24110 and below same could see a test of 23840 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24570, a move above could see prices testing 24760.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 23840-24760.
* Cotton prices gained amid firmness in overseas prices after a weekly federal report showed higher export sales of the natural fiber.
* Cotton stock levels are set to increase to 22m tonnes by the end of 2020/21
* According to the latest update from the ICAC, China’s stocks, however, are expected to decline as the rest of the world’s expands slightly.
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 360 Rupees to end at 24130 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled up by 0.88% at 5284 as there is a strong possibility of shortage in pulses production, especially due to uncertainty over sowing this crop year due to the pandemic. The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses. There could be a shortage of around 10 lakh tonne in the production of tur this year. As the apex body for the trade, IPGA is bringing it to the notice of the government well in advance to augment the supply side. However, as per trade estimates, the production for tur has been around 2.90 million tonne, urad approximately 2.06 million tonne, moong around 2 million tonne, Chana around 9 million tonne and masoor around 0.95 million tonne. India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects for all of India’s rabi (winter) season crops. Exports will fall to an estimated 50,000 tonnes, down from 115,000 tonnes each of the previous two years. The situation is so dire that India is expected to import 50,000 tonnes from Canada, Argentina and Turkey. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 18.75 Rupees to end at 5206.25 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.02% to settled at 98930 while prices up 46 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5240 and below same could see a test of 5197 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5324, a move above could see prices testing 5365.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5197-5365.
* Chana prices seen supported as shortage of pulses likely as production expected to decline
* The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses.
* India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 18.75 Rupees to end at 5206.25 Rupees per 100 kgs.
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