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Daily comments as on Thursday, May 6, 2021
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 47000 as the dollar turned easy after U.S. Secretary Janet Yellen clarified that she was neither predicting nor recommending a rate hike. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen clearly said that rates need to go up higher at some point of time. The key question is how fast they will rise as the Federal Reserve has remained quite dovish. The Federal Reserve’s bond buying does not appear to be creating imbalances in the financial sector, New York Fed Bank President John Williams said. The Fed's monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasury and mortgage bonds are working as designed to help the economy recover from the coronavirus pandemic's impact, Williams was told. “I don’t take for granted, even with the good news we’re seeing, that we’re going to get that full and robust recovery that we really want without really strong monetary policy support,” Williams told the Journal. The positive impact of the bond buying in lowering long-term borrowing costs could become more important, Williams said, adding “I think the effects will even be greater in the sense of supporting strong growth over the next few years”. China's gold consumption in the first quarter rose 93.9% from the same period a year earlier to 288.2 tonnes, the China Gold Association said. Gold output in the January-March period fell 9.92% to 74.44 tonnes, the association said in a statement on its website. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.06% to settled at 10263 while prices up 129 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46752 and below same could see a test of 46503 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47148, a move above could see prices testing 47295.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 46503-47295.
* Gold settled higher as the dollar turned easy after U.S. Secretary Janet Yellen clarified that she was neither predicting nor recommending a rate hike.
* The Federal Reserve’s bond buying does not appear to be creating imbalances in the financial sector, New York Fed Bank President John Williams said.
* China's 2021 gold demand seen reverting to pre – pandemic levels – WGC official

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 69619 as U.S. dollar strengthened after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggested a rate hike in the near future to prevent the economy from overheating. U.S. private payrolls increased by the most in seven months in April as companies rushed to boost production amid a surge in demand, suggesting the economy gained further momentum early in the second quarter, powered by massive government aid and rising COVID-19 vaccinations. Silver exchange traded funds could continue to outperform their gold counterparts as improving industrial demand helps support the rally. According to the Silver Institute, global industrial silver production is expected to grow 8% this year due to strong demand for consumer electronics and solar. Perth Mint's silver sales rose in April on strong demand, while gold sales eased due to lower output. Sales of silver minted products in April climbed to 1,798,210 ounces, up 12.4% from the prior month, but down 15% from a year ago. Sales of gold coins and minted bars eased to 101,379 ounces in April, down 22% month-on-month and about 16% from a year earlier. World Silver Survey shows expectations for a rise in total silver demand in 2021 of 15% to 1.03 billion ounces, with a 26% increase in physical investment to 252.8 million ounces. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.03% to settled at 9094 while prices down -30 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68906 and below same could see a test of 68193 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70235, a move above could see prices testing 70851.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68193-70851.
* Silver dropped as U.S. dollar strengthened after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggested a rate hike in the near future to prevent the economy from overheating.
* Perth Mint's silver sales rose in April on strong demand, while gold sales eased due to lower output.
* World Silver Survey shows expectations for a rise in total silver demand in 2021 of 15% to 1.03 billion ounces

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 4826 as traders weighed global energy demand and supply prospects, tracking inventory data and reports showing a continued surge in coronavirus cases in Asia. Crude oil and fuel stocks fell sharply in the most recent week, according to two market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Crude stocks fell by 7.7 million barrels in the week ended April 30. Gasoline inventories fell by 5.3 million barrels and distillate stocks fell by 3.5 million barrels, the data showed. OPEC oil output has risen in April as higher supply from Iran countered involuntary cuts and agreed reductions by other members under a pact with allies, adding to signs of a 2021 recovery in Tehran's exports. The 13-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 25.17 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, the survey found, up 100,000 bpd from March. Output has risen every month since June 2020 with the exception of February. Iran's exports are rising as talks take place to revive a 2015 nuclear deal which could eventually allow more oil to the market. Crude oil output in the U.S. fell 1.197 mln million barrels per day in February to 9.862 million bpd, according to a monthly reporter from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.99% to settled at 5960 while prices down -16 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4774 and below same could see a test of 4722 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4908, a move above could see prices testing 4990.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4722-4990.
* Crude oil settled lower as traders weighed global energy demand and supply prospects, as reports showing a continued surge in coronavirus cases in Asia.
* U.S. crude stocks slump more than expected: EIA
* Militants using bombs attacked two oil wells at an oilfield close to the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk.

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 218.2 on a small decline in exports and increase in output. That price decline came despite forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from 90.6 in April but still well below November 2019's monthly record of 95.4 bcfd. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 86.8 bcfd this week to 87.2 bcfd next week as the weather turns cooler. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv estimated on Tuesday. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near-record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain high enough to cover the cost of buying and transporting the U.S. fuel across the ocean. Traders, however, said U.S. LNG exports cannot rise much more until new units enter service in late 2021/early 2022, since the United States only has the capacity to export about 10.5 bcfd of gas as LNG. LNG plants pull in a little more gas than they export because some of the fuel is used to run the facility. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.14% to settled at 18489 while prices down -0.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 215.5 and below same could see a test of 212.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 221, a move above could see prices testing 223.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 212.9-223.9.
* Natural gas prices ended with losses on a small decline in exports and increase in output.
* That price decline came despite forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* EIA said U.S. utilities added 15 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 23.

Copper


Copper yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 761.1 on profit booking after prices gained earlier as after support seen earlier in the day as LME prices rose past a key psychological level of $10,000 a tonne, buoyed by optimism about global economic recovery, but trading volume was tepid due to China market holidays. The U.S. economy is growing at its fastest rate since the early 1980s while British manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in almost 27 years last month. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday she sees no inflation problem brewing, downplaying earlier comments that rate hikes may be needed to stop the economy overheating as President Joe Biden's spending plans boost growth. The global copper market should see a surplus of 79,000 tonnes this year and of 109,000 tonnes in 2022, the International Copper Study Group said. Top copper producer Chile saw output of the red metal fall for the tenth consecutive month in March, official data showed, marking a modest but continual slide in production that began shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic struck the country. Factory activity in top metals consumer China expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in April as supply and transport bottlenecks weighed on production and overseas demand lost momentum. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.85% to settled at 4021 while prices down -1.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 756.2 and below same could see a test of 751.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 767.9, a move above could see prices testing 774.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 751.4-774.8.
* Copper dropped on profit booking after prices gained earlier tracking LME prices rose past a key psychological level of $10,000 a tonne
* The U.S. economy is growing at its fastest rate since the early 1980s
* British manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in almost 27 years last month.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.02% at 232.45 as global supply of refined zinc is expected to exceed demand by 353,000 tonnes in 2021, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said, adding it expects global supply of lead to exceed demand by 96,000 tonnes. ILZSG forecasts global demand for refined zinc to rise by 4.3% to 13.78 million tonnes in 2021 and global zinc mine production by 5.7% to 12.92 million tonnes. Euro zone factory activity growth surged to a record high in April, boosted by burgeoning demand and driving a rise in hiring, although supply constraints led to an unprecedented rise in unfulfilled orders, a survey showed. IHS Markit's final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 62.9 in April from March's 62.5, albeit below the initial 63.3 "flash" estimate but the highest reading since the survey began in June 1997. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 21,900 mt from last Friday April 23 to 180,100 mt as of April 30. The stocks fell 9,700 mt from Monday April 26. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.48% to settled at 2326 while prices down -2.4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 229.7 and below same could see a test of 227 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 236.1, a move above could see prices testing 239.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 227-239.8.
* Zinc prices dropped as Global supply of refined zinc is expected to exceed demand by 353,000 tonnes in 2021, the ILZSG said
* ILZSG forecasts global demand for refined zinc to rise by 4.3% to 13.78 million tonnes in 2021
* Chinese zinc smelters, produced 426,000 tonnes of zinc in March, up 7% year-on-year but down 9.8% month-on-month on a daily basis

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.12% at 1332.6 as U.S. economy is growing at its fastest rate since the early 1980s while British manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in almost 27 years last month. Global demand for nickel is expected to increase to 2.67 million tonnes in 2021 from 2.39 million tonnes in 2020, the International Nickel Study Group said. Global output of nickel is expected to rise to 2.72 million tonnes from 2.49 million tonnes, the Lisbon-based group said, adding the implicit market balance is a surplus of 45,000 tonnes in 2021. Indonesian state miner Aneka Tambang (Antam) said its nickel ore output rose more than four-fold in the first three months of 2021 compared to the same period a year ago. Antam's nickel ore output stood at 2.64 million wet metric tonnes (WMT) in the first quarter, up from 629,000 WMT in the same period in 2020, the company said in a statement. The U.S. economy has had a steady run of good news in recent months, with job gains accelerating as businesses reopen and forecasters projecting that 2021 will see the strongest GDP growth in decades. But the Federal Reserve has shown no sign that there has been enough progress yet to ease the support for the economy that it put in place at the onset of the pandemic. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.51% to settled at 1763 while prices up 14.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1321.2 and below same could see a test of 1309.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1344.6, a move above could see prices testing 1356.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1309.9-1356.7.
* Nickel gains as U.S. economy is growing at its fastest rate since the early 1980s while British manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in almost 27 years last month.
* Global nickel demand to increase to 2.67 mln tonnes in 2021 – INSG
* Indonesia's Antam Q1 nickel ore output up more than four – fold y/y

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 196.4 as China's commitment to curb carbon emissions sparked worries that supply of the energy-intensive metal will be limited. The Chinese city of Baotou in Inner Mongolia shut down 34 ferroalloy companies and some captive power plants as part of a series of measures to meet its energy consumption targets for the first quarter, which could curb aluminum production by around 100,000 tonnes on an annual basis. Chinese officials have warned that they will cap high commodity prices to dampen inflation. Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, declined 25,000 mt from the prior week to 1.12 million mt as of April 29, and Wuxi mainly contributed to the decline. Shipments of aluminium billet out of warehouses rose slightly by 1,500 mt on the week to 61,200 mt as high aluminium prices weighed on downstream consumption. Data showed that stocks of 6063 aluminium billet across the five major consumption areas – Foshan, Wuxi, Huzhou, Changzhou and Nanchang – in China dropped 28,700 mt from the previous week to 134,000 mt as of Apr 29. German business sentiment rose by less than expected in April, the Ifo Institute’s business climate index, as a third wave of Covid-19 infections and industrial sector supply problems weighed on the recovery of Europe’s largest economy. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.13% to settled at 1809 while prices up 1.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 195.5 and below same could see a test of 194.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.9, a move above could see prices testing 197.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 194.6-197.4.
* Aluminium prices rose as China's commitment to curb carbon emissions sparked worries that supply of the energy-intensive metal will be limited.
* The Chinese city of Baotou in Inner Mongolia shut down 34 ferroalloy companies and some captive power plants
* Chinese officials have warned that they will cap high commodity prices to dampen inflation.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.78% at 967.5 amid worries of lockdown it is anticipated that there will be slow supply and same with demand in domestic as well as in the international market. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Sowing data is adequate and it is expected that Mentha can hit the market by 15th of June. Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. In India, mentha is grown on 3,27,000-3,34,000 hectares, producing about 33,000-35,000 tonnes, accounting for 80 per cent share globally. With the boom in demand for oil and its derivatives in export markets, mentha production continued to rise until 2010. However, with the entry of synthetic menthol, the demand, price and production of mentha were hit. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -13.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -20% to settled at 20 while prices down -7.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 960.7 and below same could see a test of 953.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 973.6, a move above could see prices testing 979.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 953.9-979.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -13.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand
* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 2.69% at 7445 tracking rise in overseas prices as global supply tightens, and demand persists. CME raises soybean futures (s) maintenance margins by 7.2% to $4,100 per contract from $3,825 for May 2021. USDA said soybean export sales totaled 731,500 tonnes, topping forecasts that ranged from 100,000 tonnes to 700,000 tonnes. Russia plans to reduce its export tax on soybeans to 20%, but it will be no less than $100 per tonne, starting from July 1, the economy ministry said in a statement. The tax will be in place until September 2022, it said. Russia's export tax on soybeans is now set at 30%, with a minimum level of 165 euros ($200) per tonne, until June 30. Prices rallied to all time high in recently tracking rise in overseas prices as global supply tightens, and demand persists. The Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) of India has stressed the need to impose more measures to check the excessive speculative activity in the soyabean futures. In a letter to the members of SEA of India, Atul Chaturvedi, President of the association, said that SEA was flooded with complaints from its members that the soyabean contract on the commodity exchange was witnessing an unnatural price run due to technical reasons and alleged price rigging by speculators. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 79 Rupees to 7482 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.01% to settled at 48980 while prices up 195 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7310 and below same could see a test of 7174 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7522, a move above could see prices testing 7598.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7174-7598.
* Soyabean prices gained tracking rise in overseas prices as global supply tightens, and demand persists.
* USDA said soybean export sales totaled 731,500 tonnes, topping forecasts that ranged from 100,000 tonnes to 700,000 tonnes.
* Russia plans to reduce export tax on soybeans from July 1
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  79 Rupees to 7482 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.29% at 1429.3 amid worries about global edible oils supply. However upside seen limited after reports that summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date. There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country. Oilseeds 10.45 lakh ha area against 9.03 lakh ha area of last year, thus increase in area coverage by 1.41 lakh ha. Total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period. Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1459.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.07% to settled at 30340 while prices up 4.2 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1423 and below same could see a test of 1417 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1436, a move above could see prices testing 1443.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1417-1443.
* Refsoyoil prices gained amid worries about global edible oils supply.
* However upside seen limited after reports that summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date.
* There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1459.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 1201.4 with prices underpinned by concerns over world vegetable oil supplies and strong demand. Malaysia's palm oil stockpile in April likely inched lower despite production rising to a six-month high, hampered by robust exports and plummeting imports. Inventories were seen declining 0.27% from the month before to 1.44 million tonnes. Output in the world's second-largest producer likely jumped 8.9% from March to 1.55 million tonnes, marking a second straight month of gain and hitting its highest since October. Exports likely rose 10% to 1.3 million tonnes, while imports were seen down 21.4% to 108,000 tonnes. Support also seen as labour shortage due to the COVID-19 pandemic is impacting production. Malaysia has approved the return of 32,000 foreign workers to the estates but progress is slow due to the sudden surge in COVID-19 cases. Coronavirus infections in India, the world's biggest palm oil importer, surged past 20 million on Tuesday, raising demand concerns. Indonesia's palm oil output is expected to jump 7.1% to 55.69 million tonnes in 2021, on a forecast for more conducive weather conditions, a researcher at the state-owned Indonesia Oil Palm Research Institute (IOPRI) said. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 23 Rupees to end at 1237 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.62% to settled at 5147 while prices up 1.2 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1195.8 and below same could see a test of 1190.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1208.2, a move above could see prices testing 1215.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1190.2-1215.
* Crude palm oil edged up with prices underpinned by concerns over world vegetable oil supplies and strong demand.
* Malaysia's palm oil stockpile in April likely inched lower despite production rising to a six-month high, hampered by robust exports and plummeting imports.
* Support also seen as labour shortage due to the COVID-19 pandemic is impacting production
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 23 Rupees to end at 1237 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.64% at 7079 as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. The arrival of mustard in February was 4.50 lakh tonne while in March it reached 17.7 million tonne. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. As per USDA, World Mustard seed production is estimated to remain steady at 689 lakh tonnes in 2020-21. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% y-o-y, taking the total supply to decline by 2% to 923 lakh tonnes as compared to 944 lakh tonnes recorded in the last year. Total consumption and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% and 29% respectively. World export is also estimated to increase by 5% to 162 lakh tonnes as compared to 155 lakh tonnes last year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -206 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.64% to settled at 43550 while prices up 45 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7036 and below same could see a test of 6993 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7111, a move above could see prices testing 7143.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6993-7143.
* Mustard seed prices gained as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand.
* A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes.
* The stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -206 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric


Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 7654 on profit booking as pressure seen after prices dropped across various agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yards in the country mainly on account of slack demand. Turmeric prices are down as there is no demand because traders fear a fresh lockdown due to rise in Covid-19 cases could result in stockists’ purchases dropping. Prices have declined by about ₹1,000 a quintal at various APMCs in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Prices in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have slid to below ₹7,400 from about ₹8,400 at the start of the month. Arrivals are good but there is no demand particularly from stockists. Turmeric goes to Gujarat, particularly to cities such as Bhavnagar, Jamnagar and Ahmedabad. But purchases from stockists have slowed down since they fear grocery stores will shut due to lockdown. According to the Spices Board of India, turmeric exports increased 34 per cent in volume during the April-December period of the last fiscal to 1.39 lakh tonnes (1.03 lakh tonnes). The value of shipments increased 19 per cent to ₹2,461 crore during the period. According to the first advance estimates of horticultural crop for the current season to June, turmeric production is projected to be lower at 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) against 11.53 lt last year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7600 Rupees dropped -46.9 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.68% to settled at 5520 while prices down -66 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7602 and below same could see a test of 7550 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7728, a move above could see prices testing 7802.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7550-7802.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as pressure seen after prices dropped across various APMC yards in the country
* Turmeric prices are down as there is no demand because traders fear a fresh lockdown due to rise in Covid-19 cases resulting in stockists’ purchases dropping
* Prices have declined by about ₹1,000 a quintal at various APMCs in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7600 Rupees dropped -46.9 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.96% at 13890 as prices remained under pressure in recent sessions as there is pressure on the supply of new crops in the spot markets and demand will be affected due to the lockdown amid resurgence in corona virus cases in many countries. Pressure seen after update in Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year (February-January) 2021-22. The total arrival in both the states from February 1 to March 31, 2021 was 136031.18 tonnes as compared to 82300.31 tonnes at the same time last year. Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons against 19,406 tons in March 2020. In 2020 March exports of Cumin were less because of boarder tensions with China. According to the Union Government's Ministry of Consumer Affairs, the arrival of cumin in the mandis of Gujarat from 1 February to 31 March 2021 was 121063.57 tonnes while it was was 79604.84 tonnes from February to 31 March 2020. In this way, there was a 52.08 percent increase in arrivals. The Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders has estimated the production of cumin from the country to be 478520 tonnes this year. This production was 535500 tonnes in the Rabi season 2020. This production of cumin is 10.6 percent is less than in the year 2020. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.68% to settled at 3786 while prices down -135 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13825 and below same could see a test of 13755 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14015, a move above could see prices testing 14135.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13755-14135.
* Jeera prices remained under pressure as there is pressure on the supply of new crops
* In Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year
* Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.18% at 21750 as China announced additional import quotas for the natural fiber. The Government of India’s top cotton crop assessment body has projected cotton consumption to dip by a little more than 8 per cent owing to the latest Covid-19 wave and the subsequent lockdowns in several States. The Union Ministry of Textiles’ Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) has reduced cotton consumption for season 2020-21 (October to September period) from 330 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) to 303 lakh bales, primarily due to the current lockdowns as the severe second wave of Covid has gripped the entire nation. In the COCPC meeting held on April 30, the estimated cotton closing stock has been increased from the earlier projected 98.79 lakh bales to 118.79 lakh bales at the end of the season on September 30, 2021. The COCPC, which was formed in September 2020 replacing the erstwhile Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), has also curtailed the projected cotton output for the season from the earlier estimated 371 lakh bales to 360 lakh bales. China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said it had issued an additional 700,000 tonnes quota for cotton imports this year, all of which is for non-state traders and will be subject to a sliding scale tariffs system. In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 22010 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.89% to settled at 8133 while prices up 40 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21660 and below same could see a test of 21580 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21800, a move above could see prices testing 21860.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21580-21860.
* Cotton prices gained as China announced additional import quotas for the natural fiber.
* COCPC projects season 2020-21 consumption at 303 lakh bales, down from 330 lakh bales
* The estimated cotton closing stock has been increased from the earlier projected 98.79 lakh bales to 118.79 lakh bales
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 10 Rupees to end at 22010 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.21% at 5320 on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories. Support also seen as the concern of unseasonal rain in the early part of this year has stoked up crop damage fears in some of the northern states. In addition, the government has spruced up procurement through minimum support price as higher arrivals at major markets have pulled down spot prices below the ₹5,100 per quintal. Chana arrivals last month increased three-fold to 6.4 lakh tonnes. The government agency Nafed is learnt to have procured 1.24 lakh tonnes of chana in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year. The second advance estimates of Ministry of Agriculture pegs chana production at a record high of 116 lakh tonnes in 2020-21 season (111 lakh tonnes). In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 39.6 Rupees to end at 5339.6 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.07% to settled at 58830 while prices up 11 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5292 and below same could see a test of 5263 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5349, a move above could see prices testing 5377.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5263-5377.
* Chana gained on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories.
* Total summer crops have been sown on 73.76 lakh ha area against 60.67 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year
* Sowing reported under Pulses 12.75 lakh ha against 6.45 lakh ha area of last year i.e. increase in area coverage by 6.30 lakh ha.
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 39.6 Rupees to end at 5339.6 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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