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Turmeric trading range for the day is 7300-7888 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 47951 after last week's miss on the U.S. jobs growth numbers kept the dollar under pressure and bolstered expectations that interest rates will remain low for some time. Also supporting the precious metal was the return of discretionary capital flowing into gold alongside strong physical demand from China and India prior to the recent lockdowns. U.S. nonfarm payrolls data showed jobs growth unexpectedly slowed in April, pushing the dollar to an over two-month trough, making gold less expensive for holders of other currencies.
The lower-than-expected job numbers came as a speed bump on investors' hopes of a roaring recovery in the world's largest economy and tamped down bets on the U.S. Federal Reserve tightening policy earlier than expected. The U.S. central bank has pledged to keep interest rates low until inflation and employment pick up. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Physical gold demand in India dived this week as shops shuttered and people turned cautious due to surging coronavirus infections across the world's second-largest bullion consumer, which also fanned fears of a wider spread to other Asian centres.
Dealers were offering a discount of up to $3 an ounce over official domestic prices, up from the last week's discount of $2. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.86% to settled at 9482 while prices up 200 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47756 and below same could see a test of 47561 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48145, a move above could see prices testing 48339.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47561-48339.
* Gold prices rose after last week's miss on the U.S. jobs growth numbers kept the dollar under pressure
* U.S. jobs growth slows sharply in April
* Dollar hovers close to over 2-month low
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 71544 as a disappointing U.S. employment report signaled that interest rates will likely stay low for longer. Friday's U.S. jobs report was as massive disappointment as employers added just 266,000 jobs in April, far fewer than the 975,000 jobs than expected. Data for March was revised down to show addition of 770,000 jobs instead of 916,000 previously reported. The weak jobs report suggested the economy is still in recovery mode and bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low.
Investors await reports on consumer and producer prices, retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment this week for further clues about the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
Silver exchange traded funds could continue to outperform their gold counterparts as improving industrial demand helps support the rally. According to the Silver Institute, global industrial silver production is expected to grow 8% this year due to strong demand for consumer electronics and solar. The price for silver is expected to peak at $32 per ounce later this year and its average price to increase 33% over 2020 - Silver Institute.
Silver futures and ETFs are making considerable gains despite predictions from World Bank for lower gold prices in 2021 and 2022. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.69% to settled at 10125 while prices up 115 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 71089 and below same could see a test of 70635 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72348, a move above could see prices testing 73153.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 70635-73153.
* Silver prices firmed up as a disappointing U.S. employment report signaled that interest rates will likely stay low for longer.
* Friday's U.S. jobs report was as massive disappointment as employers added just 266,000 jobs in April
* The weak jobs report suggested the economy is still in recovery mode and bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 4778 after a major cyber attack that forced the shutdown of critical fuel supply pipelines in the United States, highlighting the fragility of oil infrastructure. Natural gas slipped on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected.Signalling the seriousness of the situation, the White House was working closely with Colonial Pipeline to help it recover from the ransomware attack, which forced the biggest U.S. fuel pipeline operator to shut a network supplying populous eastern states.
The attack has prompted calls from American lawmakers to strengthen protections for critical U.S. energy infrastructure from hacking attacks. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to May 4, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 13,874 contracts to 401,268 during the period. Crude oil output in the U.S. fell 1.197 mln million barrels per day in February to 9.862 million bpd, according to a monthly reporter from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
OPEC oil output has risen in April as higher supply from Iran countered involuntary cuts and agreed reductions by other members under a pact with allies, adding to signs of a 2021 recovery in Tehran's exports. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.06% to settled at 4829 while prices up 15 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4716 and below same could see a test of 4655 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4828, a move above could see prices testing 4879.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4655-4879.
* Crude oil prices climbed after a major cyber attack that forced the shutdown of critical fuel supply pipelines in the United States, highlighting the fragility of oil infrastructure
* Crude oil output in the U.S. fell 1.197 mln million barrels per day in February to 9.862 million bpd
* Russia increased its oil production in April to almost 10.5 million barrels a day.
Natural gas
Natural gas yesterday settled down by -0.92% at 215 on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. Traders also noted prices were down with a small increase in output and a small decline in exports. But with cooler weather still expected this week, speculators last week boosted their net long gas futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges to their highest since early March.
Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from 90.6 bcfd in April, but still well below November 2019's monthly record of 95.4 bcfd. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would fall from 88.0 bcfd this week to 82.7 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally warmer. That forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv estimated on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S.
LNG export plants averaged 11.4 bcfd so far in May, down from April's monthly record of 11.5 bcfd. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near-record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain high enough to justify the cost of buying and transporting the U.S. fuel across the ocean. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.8% to settled at 16707 while prices down -2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 212.8 and below same could see a test of 210.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 217.8, a move above could see prices testing 220.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 210.6-220.6.
* Natural gas slipped on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected.
* Traders also noted prices were down with a small increase in output and a small decline in exports.
* Speculators boosted their net long gas futures and options positions on the NYMEX and ICE to their highest since early March.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled flat at 787.25 paring gains on profit booking after prices climbed to record high levels as hopes of improved demand and tight supply fuelled sentiment. Sentiment has been supported since Friday after prices on the LME broke a record high level for the first time since 2011. Bullish investors bet that demand for copper will increase further as the world economy recovers from COVID-19 slumps and as investments into green energy sectors ramped up, while prices were also supported by tight supply in the concentrate market.
A group of 15 key copper smelters in China have agreed to cut their purchases of raw material copper concentrate in 2021 by 8.8% year-on-year, state-backed research house Antaike said, in a bid to boost flagging treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs). One reason for the move is to accelerate a push towards low-carbon production, as China's nonferrous metals sector aims to peak emissions by 2025, said Antaike, the research arm of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. China's copper concentrate imports in the first four months of 2021 were up 4.4% year-on-year at 7.88 million tonnes, according to customs data.
Chile's central bank said on Friday that copper export revenue had jumped 69% in April, a welcome windfall brought on by soaring prices for the red metal. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -17.08% to settled at 3938 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 775.2 and below same could see a test of 763 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 806.1, a move above could see prices testing 824.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 763-824.8.
* Copper pared gains on profit booking after prices climbed to record high levels as hopes of improved demand and tight supply fuelled sentiment.
* China's copper concentrate imports in the first four months of 2021 were up 4.4% year-on-year at 7.88 million tonnes, according to customs data
* China copper smelters to cut concentrate purchases to lift treatment charges
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.95% at 235 as zinc mines restored production, while more smelters will conduct maintenance in May, which weighed on demand for zinc. The dollar fell to its lowest in more than two months after US jobs data for April came in well below expectations, putting a damper on hopes that a roaring economic recovery would lead to higher rates any time soon.
China's refined zinc output stood at 499,300 mt in April, up 0.49% or 2,500 mt on the month and up 4.11% on the year. Output stood at 2.01 million mt in January-April, up 4.25% year on year. Smelters in the survey sample produced 77,400 mt of zinc alloy in April, up 3.06% from the previous month.
Output of primary zinc stood at 400,000 mt in April, and secondary zinc output came in at 44,000 mt. Survey showed that the increase in domestic refined zinc supply in April was less than expected. The main reason was that the impact of "dual energy consumption control" continued, requiring that the energy consumption of the refinery should not exceed the same period of last year, leading to the maintenance and shutdown of some refineries.
Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.35% to settled at 2124 while prices down -2.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 232.7 and below same could see a test of 230.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 239, a move above could see prices testing 242.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 230.3-242.9.
* Zinc prices dropped as zinc mines restored production, while more smelters will conduct maintenance in May, which weighed on demand for zinc.
* China's refined zinc output stood at 499,300 mt in April, up 0.49% or 2,500 mt on the month and up 4.11% on the year.
* Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 266,000 jobs last month after rising by 770,000 in March, the Labor Department said
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.85% at 1309.7 on profit booking as China exchanges move to cool iron ore, steel price rally after prices seen supported earlier as Beijing's move to limit capacity fuelled worries about a supply shortage and prompted speculative buying. China announced a series of measures to tighten controls on steel capacity, in an effort to curb pollution in key areas as well as reduce "blind investments and disorderly constructions".
China’s refined nickel output dropped 0.21% from March to 13,000 mt in April. Operating rates across nickel smelters remained unchanged from March at 59%, down 7 percentage points from a year ago. There were only two smelters in China producing refined nickel in April.
The Gansu smelter postponed its maintenance to May, and produced 12,000 mt of refined nickel, while the Xinjiang smelter produced 1,014 mt. Smelters in Tianjin and Guangxi continued to produce nickel sulphate, and the Jilin smelter launched its resumption schedule in late April but did not yield any output in the month. China’s NPI output shrank 11.9% from March to 33,900 mt Ni in April.
This included 26,700 mt Ni of high-grade NPI, down 12.87% on the month, and 7,200 mt Ni of low-grade NPI, down 8.16% month on month. Low prices and high costs drove some high-grade NPI plants to reduce output. A large-scale high-grade NPI plant in east China lowered output by 22% on the month. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.27% to settled at 1448 while prices down -24.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1296.2 and below same could see a test of 1282.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1332.2, a move above could see prices testing 1354.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1282.6-1354.6.
* Nickel dropped on profit booking as China exchanges move to cool iron ore, steel price rally
* China announced a series of measures to tighten controls on steel capacity, in an effort to curb pollution in key areas
* China’s refined nickel output dropped 0.21% from March to 13,000 mt in April
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled flat at 200.8 after China’s primary aluminium output rose 9.87% year on year to 3.25 million mt in April. US Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 266,000 jobs, far lower than the expected 1 million. Yellen said that the weak nonfarm data highlights that the road to economic recovery is still long, which strengthens the sustainability of economic stimulus and alleviates the market's worries about inflation.
All three major US stock indexes closed up at night, while the US dollar index fell to a low of more than two months, and copper futures continued to show strong performance. With only six trading days left before delivery, the spot market premium is expected to stop falling and rebound this week. China’s primary aluminium output rose 9.87% year on year to 3.25 million mt in April (30 production days), showed survey. For the first four months of 2021, primary aluminium output totalled 12.94 million mt, rising 8.6% from the same period last year.
Baikuang Debao and Tianlin continued to release output in April, and the average daily output in Inner Mongolia rose slightly by 400 mt from March. As of early May, there was 39.71 million mt among 43.5 million mt per year of existing primary aluminium capacity in operation, while operating rates across Chinese primary aluminium producers stood at 91.3%. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.44% to settled at 1641 while prices up 0.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 197.9 and below same could see a test of 195 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 204.9, a move above could see prices testing 209.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 195-209.
* Aluminium prices settled flat after China’s primary aluminium output rose 9.87% year on year to 3.25 million mt in April
* For the first four months of 2021, primary aluminium output totalled 12.94 million mt, rising 8.6% from the same period last year.
* US Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 266,000 jobs, far lower than the expected 1 million.
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.57% at 970.1 amid worries of lockdown it is anticipated that there will be slow supply and same with demand in domestic as well as in the international market. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Sowing data is adequate and it is expected that Mentha can hit the market by 15th of June.
Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few.
In India, mentha is grown on 3,27,000-3,34,000 hectares, producing about 33,000-35,000 tonnes, accounting for 80 per cent share globally. With the boom in demand for oil and its derivatives in export markets, mentha production continued to rise until 2010.
However, with the entry of synthetic menthol, the demand, price and production of mentha were hit. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 45% to settled at 29 while prices down -5.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 956.8 and below same could see a test of 943.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 989.3, a move above could see prices testing 1008.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 943.4-1008.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand
* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 7459 as the markets focused on global supply concern. Madhya Pradesh, which had imposed restrictions on the sale of soyabean seeds outside the state, has revoked its order following protests by the Maharashtra government. After Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra is the biggest soyabean producing state in the country with farmers growing the oilseed in over 35-40 lakh hectares yearly. China's soybean imports in April rose 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by the arrival of some delayed cargoes, customs data showed.
China, the world's top importer of soybeans, brought in 7.45 million tonnes of the oilseed in April, up from 6.714 million tonnes a year earlier, according to General Administration of Customs data. Chinese crushers have stepped up purchases of soybeans from top exporters Brazil and the United States in the early months of 2021, expecting higher demand as the country's pig herd recovers.
European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 12.34 million tonnes by May 2, data published by the European Commission showed. Since Jan. 1, the European Commission's data has covered the EU's 27 countries only, whereas previous figures up to Dec. 31 covered both the EU-27 and Britain.
At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 99 Rupees to 7878 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.74% to settled at 45945 while prices up 50 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7343 and below same could see a test of 7226 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7598, a move above could see prices testing 7736.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7226-7736.
* Soyabean prices gained as the markets focused on global supply concern.
* China's April soybean imports climb 11% on year as delayed cargoes arrive
* European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 12.34 million tonnes.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 99 Rupees to 7878 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.8% at 1433.8 amid worries about global edible oils supply. However upside seen limited after reports that summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date. There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country. Oilseeds 10.45 lakh ha area against 9.03 lakh ha area of last year, thus increase in area coverage by 1.41 lakh ha. Total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period.
Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA).
The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1486.7 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.28% to settled at 20840 while prices up 11.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1413 and below same could see a test of 1391 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1447, a move above could see prices testing 1459.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1391-1459.
* Refsoyoil prices gained amid worries about global edible oils supply.
* However upside seen limited after reports that summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date.
* There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1486.7 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.94% at 1241.3 as support seen after data showed Malaysia's exports during May 1 to 10 rose between 29.6% and 36.8% from the same period in April. Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of April rose 7.1% from the previous month to 1.55 million tonnes, data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed. Crude palm oil production jumped 7% from March to 1.52 million tonnes, while palm oil exports expanded 12.6% to 1.34 tonnes, MPOB said.
Indian edible oil refiners are curtailing palm oil imports for May and June as most states have imposed curbs on hotels and restaurants to arrest rising coronavirus infections, denting institutional demand, industry officials said. Lower imports by India, the world's biggest buyer of the edible oil, could limit a rally in benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures , which hit their highest level since 2008. The country was expected to import 850,000 tonnes of palm oil per month in May and June, but now industry officials estimate imports could come down to around 650,000 tonnes.
India imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and other oils such as soy and sunflower from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and Russia. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -3.8 Rupees to end at 1243.5 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.99% to settled at 4921 while prices up 11.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1219.4 and below same could see a test of 1197.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1254, a move above could see prices testing 1266.8.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1197.6-1266.8.
* Crude palm oil gained as support seen as Malaysia's exports during May 1 to 10 rose between 29.6% and 36.8% from the same period in April
* Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of April rose 7.1%
* Crude palm oil production jumped 7% from March to 1.52 million tonnes, while palm oil exports expanded 12.6% to 1.34 tonnes, MPOB said.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -3.8 Rupees to end at 1243.5 Rupees
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 2.25% at 7506 as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard.
The arrival of mustard in February was 4.50 lakh tonne while in March it reached 17.7 million tonne. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. As per USDA, World Mustard seed production is estimated to remain steady at 689 lakh tonnes in 2020-21.
The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% y-o-y, taking the total supply to decline by 2% to 923 lakh tonnes as compared to 944 lakh tonnes recorded in the last year. Total consumption and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% and 29% respectively. World export is also estimated to increase by 5% to 162 lakh tonnes as compared to 155 lakh tonnes last year.
In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.31% to settled at 67140 while prices up 165 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7386 and below same could see a test of 7267 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7629, a move above could see prices testing 7753.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7267-7753.
* Mustard seed prices gained as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand.
* A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes.
* The stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.69% at 7548 on profit booking as pressure seen after prices dropped across various agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yards in the country mainly on account of slack demand. Turmeric prices are down as there is no demand because traders fear a fresh lockdown due to rise in Covid-19 cases could result in stockists' purchases dropping.
Prices have declined by about ₹1,000 a quintal at various APMCs in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Prices in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have slid to below ₹7,400 from about ₹8,400 at the start of the month. Arrivals are good but there is no demand particularly from stockists. Turmeric goes to Gujarat, particularly to cities such as Bhavnagar, Jamnagar and Ahmedabad. But purchases from stockists have slowed down since they fear grocery stores will shut due to lockdown.
According to the Spices Board of India, turmeric exports increased 34 per cent in volume during the April-December period of the last fiscal to 1.39 lakh tonnes (1.03 lakh tonnes). The value of shipments increased 19 per cent to ₹2,461 crore during the period. According to the first advance estimates of horticultural crop for the current season to June, turmeric production is projected to be lower at 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) against 11.53 lt last year.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7600 Rupees dropped -73.55 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 20.82% to settled at 8445 while prices down -130 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7424 and below same could see a test of 7300 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7718, a move above could see prices testing 7888.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7300-7888.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as pressure seen after prices dropped across various APMC yards in the country
* Turmeric prices are down as there is no demand because traders fear a fresh lockdown due to rise in Covid-19 cases could result in stockists' purchases dropping
* Turmeric production is projected to be lower at 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) against 11.53 lt last year.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7600 Rupees dropped -73.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 13900 as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments and pushed prices lower. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively.
As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India's exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e.
Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -67.05 Rupees to end at 13987.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 34.92% to settled at 5019 while prices down -95 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13800 and below same could see a test of 13700 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14050, a move above could see prices testing 14200.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13700-14200.
* Jeera prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments
* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.
* The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -67.05 Rupees to end at 13987.5 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 21870 as exports of cotton and cotton products are rising, providing the best chance of recovery in the sector. However upside seen limited amid chances of some rain in parts of Texas, but persistent concerns over supply kept prices on track for a weekly gain. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net sales of 63,700 running bales for 2020/2021, down 17% from the previous week and 56% from the prior 4-week average.
Post forecasts India's MY 2021/22 cotton production will increase by four percent to 29.5 million 480 lb. bales on a reduced area of 12.9 million hectares. Yields are expected to improve by five percent based on the expectation of a normal monsoon forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department. In April, cotton fiber and yarn prices decreased due to a surge in COVID-19 cases, which has led to a slowdown in the production and consumption of textile products. Domestic retail demand remains severely hampered by the pandemic; however, exports of cotton and cotton products are rising, providing the best chance of recovery in the sector.
The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption expects production during the current season (October 2020 to September 2021) to be at 360 lakh bales, slightly lower than the 2019-2020 estimate of 365 lakh bales. In spot market, Cotton gained by 50 Rupees to end at 22200 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.36% to settled at 6284 while prices up 50 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21770 and below same could see a test of 21660 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22040, a move above could see prices testing 22200.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21660-22200.
* Cotton prices gained as exports of cotton and cotton products are rising, providing the best chance of recovery in the sector.
* India's MY 2021/22 cotton production will increase by four percent to 29.5 million 480 lb. bales
* Yields are expected to improve by five percent based on the expectation of a normal monsoon forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department.
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 50 Rupees to end at 22200 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled up by 1.75% at 5511 on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories. Support also seen as the concern of unseasonal rain in the early part of this year has stoked up crop damage fears in some of the northern states. In addition, the government has spruced up procurement through minimum support price as higher arrivals at major markets have pulled down spot prices below the ₹5,100 per quintal. Chana arrivals last month increased three-fold to 6.4 lakh tonnes.
The government agency Nafed is learnt to have procured 1.24 lakh tonnes of chana in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year.
The second advance estimates of Ministry of Agriculture pegs chana production at a record high of 116 lakh tonnes in 2020-21 season (111 lakh tonnes). In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 81.95 Rupees to end at 5500 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.79% to settled at 135610 while prices up 95 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5442 and below same could see a test of 5373 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5570, a move above could see prices testing 5629.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5373-5629.
* Chana gained on expectations of better demand amid lower inventories.
* Support also seen as the concern of unseasonal rain in the early part of this year has stoked up crop damage fears in some of the northern states.
* In addition, the government has spruced up procurement through minimum support price.
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 81.95 Rupees to end at 5500 Rupees per 100 kgs.
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