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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 53505 after talks as India’s trade ministry is discussing a reduction in import taxes on gold to rein in illegal shipments. The world’s second-largest consumer of the precious metal, almost all of which is purchased from abroad, has asked the Finance Ministry to consider reducing the tariff to about 10% from 12.5%, asking not to be identified as the deliberations are private. Investors now look ahead to a slew of US economic reports such as services activity, consumer sentiment, and inflation data, as well as the Fed’s monetary decision next week. Prospects of a less aggressive tightening from the Federal Reserve spooked investors away from the greenback. The pledge by Fed Chair Powell to scale down the pace of rate increases has somewhat overshadowed last week's stronger-than-anticipated US jobs report. Money markets are pricing an 80% chance that the US central bank will hike rates by 50 basis points in December after delivering four successive 75 basis point rate increases. Still, investors see a loftier chance that the peak for the Fed funds will be higher than expected. The dollar was mostly steady against the euro and the British pound but it came under pressure against the Chinese yuan as bets of a swifter reopening of China's economy lent optimism to yuan bulls. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4% to settle at 15851 while prices are down -345 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 53234 and below same could see a test of 52964 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 54001, a move above could see prices testing 54498.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 52964-54498.
* Gold dropped after talks as India’s trade ministry is discussing a reduction in import taxes on gold to rein in illegal shipments.
* Prospects of a less aggressive tightening from the Federal Reserve spooked investors away from the greenback.
* Fed Chair Powell to scale down the pace of rate increases has somewhat overshadowed last week's stronger-than-anticipated US jobs report


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.9% at 65186 as better-than-expected economic data doused hopes for a pause in the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening. Fed Chairman Powell stated that it is likely that the US central bank will slow the aggressiveness of rate hikes this month, easing demand for the dollar and driving investors toward bullion. Besides bullion, softer rate hikes in the US and a cut in the reserve ratio by the PBoC supported expectations of higher demand for industrial silver usage as electricity conductors, tracking the rebound for copper. Signs of low supply also supported prices, as New York’s COMEX inventories fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes. Also, the London Bullion Market Association stockpiles fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes in November. India’s silver imports have topped a record high of 8,000 tonnes this year on the heels of a rise in jewellery consumption. Silver jewellery consumption, which made up over 50 per cent of the 21 per cent growth in global offtake last year, is expected to increase by 11 per cent this year, surpassing the levels seen in 2019, according to the Silver Institute. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -14.9% to settle at 17660 while prices are down -1263 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64372 and below same could see a test of 63559 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66696, a move above could see prices testing 68207.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 63559-68207.
* Silver dropped as better-than-expected economic data doused hopes for a pause in the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening.
* Fed Chairman Powell stated that it is likely that the US central bank will slow the aggressiveness of rate hikes this month.
* Eurozone retail sales dropped 1.8% mom in October, following an upwardly revised 0.8% growth in September


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.03% at 6415 as strong U.S. service data raised the prospects for more aggressive moves by the Federal Reserve. Oil prices rose sharply earlier in the session, riding on the decision by OPEC+ to stick to their October plan to cut output by 2 million barrels per day from November through 2023. At the same time, in a positive sign for fuel demand in the world's top oil importer, more Chinese cities eased COVID-19 curbs over the weekend. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together called OPEC+, agreed to stick to their October plan to cut output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November through 2023. The Group of Seven (G7) countries and Australia last week agreed on a $60-a-barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil. Business and manufacturing activity in China, the world's second largest economy, have been hit this year amid strict measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus. U.S. oil output climbed 2.4% to 12.27 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, government figures showed, the highest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In top oil producing states, monthly output in Texas rose 1.8% to 5.15 million bpd, highest since March 2020. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.51% to settle at 11122 while prices are down -133 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6279 and below same could see a test of 6142 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6663, a move above could see prices testing 6910.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6142-6910.
* Crude oil dropped as strong U.S. service data raised the prospects for more aggressive moves by the Federal Reserve.
* OPEC+ keeps output steady, Russian price cap imposed
* G7, EU impose Russian oil price cap at $60 a barrel


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -10.94% at 466.6 as strong U.S. service data raised the prospects for more aggressive moves by the Federal Reserve. Oil prices rose sharply earlier in the session, riding on the decision by OPEC+ to stick to their October plan to cut output by 2 million barrels per day from November through 2023. At the same time, in a positive sign for fuel demand in the world's top oil importer, more Chinese cities eased COVID-19 curbs over the weekend. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together called OPEC+, agreed to stick to their October plan to cut output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November through 2023. The Group of Seven (G7) countries and Australia last week agreed on a $60-a-barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil. Business and manufacturing activity in China, the world's second largest economy, have been hit this year amid strict measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus. U.S. oil output climbed 2.4% to 12.27 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, government figures showed, the highest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In top oil producing states, monthly output in Texas rose 1.8% to 5.15 million bpd, highest since March 2020. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 34.55% to settle at 15094 while prices are down -57.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 452.8 and below same could see a test of 439 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 491.7, a move above could see prices testing 516.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 439-516.8.
* Natural gas dropped on predictions of warmer weather over the next two weeks and expectations of higher supply.
* Freeport is set to again delay the restart of its LNG export plant to the end of the year from mid-December
* Average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to a record 99.5 bcfd in November, up from 99.4 bcfd in October.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 693.6 as the dollar index rose to above 105 on renewed prospects for a more aggressive Federal Reserve following better-than-expected economic data. More cities in China announced an easing of COVID-19 restrictions, with a weak U.S. dollar also lending support to the metal. Amid Beijing's changing narrative on COVID-19's health risks, more cities announced an easing of curbs, lifting large-scale lockdowns, reducing regular tests and ending checks for negative results in public spaces. Chile's total copper production rose 1.4% in October to 477,000 tonnes, government body Cochilco said. Production from state-owned giant Codelco fell 5.8% on a yearly basis to 135,800 tonnes, Cochilco said, while output from BHP-controlled Escondida rose 17.7% to 99,700 tonnes. China may announce 10 new COVID-19 easing measures as early as Wednesday, supplementing 20 unveiled in November that set off a wave of COVID easing steps nationwide. Three years of zero-tolerance measures, from shuttered borders to frequent lockdowns, have battered China's economy, fuelling last month the mainland's biggest show of public discontent since President Xi Jinping took power in 2012. Management of the disease may be downgraded as soon as January, to the less strict Category B from the current top-level Category A of infectious disease, the sources said on Monday, speaking on condition of anonymity. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.44% to settle at 5128 while prices are down -1.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 689.8 and below same could see a test of 685.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 700.8, a move above could see prices testing 707.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 685.9-707.9.
* Copper dropped as the dollar index rose to above 105 on renewed prospects for a more aggressive Federal Reserve
* China may announce 10 new COVID easing steps on Wednesday
* Chile copper production up 1.4% in October


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.77% at 274.6 as the market confidence was boosted by the signs of relaxing pandemic control measures in China. Zinc ingot social inventory across the seven markets in China totalled 54,500 mt, up 3,400 mt from last Friday, but was still at a low level. China may announce 10 new COVID-19 easing measures as early as Wednesday, supplementing 20 unveiled in November that set off a wave of COVID easing steps nationwide. Three years of zero-tolerance measures, from shuttered borders to frequent lockdowns, have battered China's economy, fuelling last month the mainland's biggest show of public discontent since President Xi Jinping took power in 2012. The Caixin China General Services PMI fell to 46.7 in November 2022 from 48.4 in October, pointing to the 3rd straight month of drop. This was also the steepest contraction in the service sector since May, amid anti-COVID containment measures that weighed on demand and operations. The Caixin China General Composite PMI fell to 47.0 in November 2022 from 48.53in October, pointing to the lowest print since May as the Chinese economy was currently bracing for the third wave of COVID infections. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.6% to settle at 3160 while prices are up 2.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 272.8 and below same could see a test of 270.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 277.3, a move above could see prices testing 279.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 270.8-279.8.
* Zinc rose as the market confidence was boosted by the signs of relaxing pandemic control measures in China.
* China may announce 10 new COVID-19 easing measures as early as Wednesday
* Zinc ingot social inventory across the seven markets in China totalled 54,500 mt, up 3,400 mt from last Friday


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 214.45 on predictions of warmer weather over the next two weeks and expectations of higher supply. Freeport is set to again delay the restart of its LNG export plant to the end of the year from mid-December, leaving more gas in the domestic market. Also, average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to a record 99.5 bcfd in November, up from 99.4 bcfd in October. At the same time, the US government is stepping up efforts to reduce the risk of a railroad worker strike that could disrupt coal deliveries and force power generators to burn more gas. Still, US gas futures are up nearly 75% so far this year as overseas demand for LNG remains strong especially from Europe after the war in Ukraine has disrupted gas supply. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 115.7 bcfd this week to 121.4 bcfd next week and 129.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants jumped to 12.7 bcfd so far in December, up from 11.8 bcfd in November. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.91% to settle at 6828 while prices are up 0.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 213 and below same could see a test of 211.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.9, a move above could see prices testing 219.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 211.6-219.4.
* Aluminum gains amid declining inventories and Smelters in northern China are cutting output to reduce pollution during the winter.
* However, risk appetites dimmed after data showed that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 2-1/2 years in November
* Globally, factory output fell in countries including China, Japan and South Korea, although the downturn eased in Europe.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 941.7 as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -2.4 Rupees to end at 1094.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.19% to settle at 913 while prices are down -8.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 937.2 and below same could see a test of 932.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 947.2, a move above could see prices testing 952.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 932.6-952.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -2.4 Rupees to end at 1094.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha prices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.22% at 7154 amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67%. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7314.65 Rupees dropped -62.6 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.25% to settle at 7055 while prices are down -16 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7116 and below same could see a test of 7078 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7216, a move above could see prices testing 7278.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7078-7278.
* Turmeric prices dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of supply.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7314.65 Rupees dropped -62.6 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.98% at 25365 amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 81.55 Rupees to end at 24917.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.65% to settle at 4821 while prices are up 245 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 25080 and below same could see a test of 24790 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25730, a move above could see prices testing 26090.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24790-26090.
* Jeera gained amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 81.55 Rupees to end at 24917.5 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 31770 as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season up to September is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales (170 kg each) at 300 lakh bales or nearly 6 per cent less than last year’s 318 lakh bales. According to the Punjab Mandi Board data, cotton crop has seen the slowest arrival in the last five years even as the average rate is the highest since 2018. Punjab is expected to have produced 20 lakh quintals against 29 lakh quintals produced in the 2021-22 season. Arrivals are lower as farmers are holding cotton in anticipation of higher prices in the near term. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. The latest US Department of Agriculture cotton projections for 2022/23 indicated a slight increase from 2021/22 for world cotton production and lower global demand estimates for 2022/2023. Production in the US, the world’s largest exporter of cotton, was seen about 1.5% higher, at 14.0 million bales, as a decrease in the Southwest is more than offset by increases elsewhere. Meanwhile, global cotton consumption is projected to be 650,000 bales lower this month, with a 300,000-bale cut to mill use in Pakistan and Bangladesh. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -710 Rupees to end at 32180 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.96% to settle at 2557 while prices are down -130 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31500 and below same could see a test of 31230 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32070, a move above could see prices testing 32370.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 31230-32370.
* Cotton dropped as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales.
* USDA cotton projections for 2022/23 indicated a slight increase from 2021/22 for world cotton
* Punjab’s cotton crop has seen the slowest arrival in the last five years even as the average rate is the highest since 2018.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -710 Rupees to end at 32180 Rupees.

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