IGI Logo

Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.52% at 47285 on a weakened dollar as investors weighed up prospects for a tightening of U.S. Federal Reserve policy after the release of the monthly U.S. jobs report. Data showed U.S. job growth accelerated in June as non-farm payrolls increased by 850,000 jobs after rising by 583,000 in May, although the unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.8% the previous month. The data follows suggestions from U.S. Federal Reserve officials that the central bank should begin to taper its asset purchases this year. Also on investor’s radar was the highly contagious Delta variant which prompted some countries in Asia and Europe to walk back on reopening plans. Gold in India was being sold at a premium for the first time in more than two months as demand gained traction after curbs to combat the second wave of the coronavirus were slightly relaxed. Dealers were charging premium of up to $3 an ounce over official domestic prices, compared to last week’s discount of $12. Premiums in top consumer China narrowed to $3-$4 an ounce over global benchmark spot prices, versus $3-$6 last week. China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong more than halved in May from a near three-year high hit in April. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.63% to settled at 10594 while prices up 246 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47111 and below same could see a test of 46937 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47487, a move above could see prices testing 47689.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 46937-47689.
* Gold jumped on a weakened dollar as investors weighed up prospects for a tightening of U.S. Federal Reserve policy after the release of the monthly U.S. jobs report.
* Data showed U.S. job growth accelerated in June as non-farm payrolls increased by 850,000 jobs after rising by 583,000 in May
* The unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.8% the previous month.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.55% at 70188 after the dollar weakened and the yields on long-term U.S. bonds dropped. Worries about a surge in the Delta variant of the coronavirus and travel curbs in several countries also contributed to increased demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Investors also reacted to the data from the Labor Department that showed a bigger than expected increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls in the month of June. The U.S. Labor Department's report showed a continued reacceleration in the pace of U.S. job growth in the month of June. The report showed non-farm payroll employment spiked by 850,000 jobs in June after surging by an upwardly revised 583,000 jobs in May. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched up to 5.9% in June from 5.8% in May. The unemployment rate was expected to edge down to 5.7%.A separate report from the Commerce Department showed the U.S. trade deficit widened roughly in line with estimates in the month of May. U.S. manufacturing activity grew at a moderate pace in June, but employment contracted for the first time in seven months, likely because of rampant shortages of raw materials and labor. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.62% to settled at 9290 while prices up 1068 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69488 and below same could see a test of 68788 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70624, a move above could see prices testing 71060.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68788-71060.
* Silver settled higher after the dollar weakened and the yields on long-term U.S. bonds dropped.
* The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury Note dropped to 1.43%.
* Investors also reacted to the data from the Labor Department that showed a bigger than expected increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls in the month of June.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 5597 as markets looked ahead to the outcome of the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. OPEC had earlier agreed in principle to increase crude output by 400,000 barrels per day from August through December to cater to rising demand. Saudi Arabia and Russia are said to have proposed extending the duration of cuts till the end of next year, while the United Arab Emirates reportedly wants to change the baseline used to determine its output level. Meanwhile, a report from Baker Hughes showed U.S. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a third time in four weeks. The report said the oil and gas rig count in the U.S. went up by 5 to 475 in the week ended July 2. This is the highest count since April 2020. Monthly output increases by the group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia would amount to less than 0.5 million bpd. Responding to oil demand destruction caused by the COVID-19 crisis, OPEC+ last year agreed to cut output by almost 10 million bpd from May 2020, with plans to phase out the curbs by the end of April 2022. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.95% to settled at 8574 while prices down -10 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5555 and below same could see a test of 5512 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5643, a move above could see prices testing 5688.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5512-5688.
* Crude oil dropped as markets looked ahead to the outcome of the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.
* OPEC had earlier agreed in principle to increase crude output by 400,000 barrels per day from August through December to cater to rising demand.
* Saudi Arabia and Russia are said to have proposed extending the duration of cuts till the end of next year

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.91% at 277.5 on strong demand for US exports of liquified natural gas as global gas continues to trade more than three times above US prices. Meantime, forecasts point for slightly milder weather and less air conditioning demand in the US over the next two weeks than previously expected. As for storage, the Energy Information Administration reported a 55 Bcf injection into inventories for the week ending June 11. Support also seen amid a drop in output to the lowest level since gas wells and pipes froze in Texas during February. Output decline was due to a problem with a natural gas liquids pipeline in West Virginia. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states dropped to an average of 87.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July due mostly to the pipeline problems in West Virginia. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would slide from 93.3 bcfd this week to 89.9 bcfd next week as the U.S. July 4 holiday and milder weather cuts air conditioning use, before rising to 93.8 bcfd in two weeks when the weather turns seasonally hotter. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 19.99% to settled at 18531 while prices up 5.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 271.6 and below same could see a test of 265.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 281.1, a move above could see prices testing 284.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 265.7-284.7.
* Natural gas prices gained on strong demand for US exports of LNG as global gas continues to trade more than three times above US prices.
* As for storage, the Energy Information Administration reported a 55 Bcf injection into inventories for the week ending June 11.
* Support also seen amid a drop in output to the lowest level since gas wells and pipes froze in Texas during February.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.04% at 722.15 as copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.3 percent from last Friday. Social inventories of copper in China's major trading markets decreased 5,900 mt from June 28 to 232,700 mt as of Friday July 2. Among them, stocks in Shanghai decreased 3,800 mt from Monday to 112,500 mt. Stocks in Guangdong fell 400 mt to 89,900 mt from Monday. Stocks in Jiangsu went up 700 mt to 19,300 mt from Monday. Stocks in Zhejiang decreased 400 mt to 3,900 mt from Monday. Stocks in Chongqing decreased 600 mt to 1,400 mt from Monday. Global copper smelting activity slipped in June after a rebound a month earlier as Chinese plants closed for maintenance. Yangshan copper premium fell to $21.5 a tonne, hovering around its lowest since February 2016, indicating subdued demand for imported metal. New orders for U.S.-made goods rebounded sharply in May, while business spending on equipment remained solid, despite bottlenecks in the supply chain. The Commerce Department said on Friday that factory orders surged 1.7% in May after slipping 0.1% in April. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.06% to settled at 3980 while prices up 7.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 718.5 and below same could see a test of 714.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 724.9, a move above could see prices testing 727.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 714.7-727.5.
* Copper prices gained as copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.3 percent.
* Global copper smelting activity slipped in June after a rebound a month earlier as Chinese plants closed for maintenance.
* Yangshan copper premium fell to $21.5 a tonne, hovering around its lowest since February 2016, indicating subdued demand for imported metal.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.06% at 237.95 as data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 3,600 mt in the week ended July 2 to 112,900 mt. The stocks fell 3,600 mt from Monday June 28. Stocks in Shanghai continued to decrease as the arrivals of imported zinc were limited and the market mainly digested domestic zinc. In south China's Guangdong, market arrivals improved slightly, downstream demand weakened, and inventories stopped falling and rebounded. In Tianjin, downstream demand declined obviously due to production cut and shutdown for the environmental protection, and traders sent some Tianjin stocks to East China, resulting in an increase in outbound goods on week. The U.S. trade deficit increased in May as efforts by business to rebuild inventories amid booming demand pulled in imports. The Commerce Department said that the trade gap rose 3.1% to $71.2 billion in May. Goods imports rose 1.2% to $234.7 billion. Massive fiscal stimulus and a reopening economy, thanks to vaccinations against COVID-19, are fueling demand for goods and services. Raw material shortages are hampering production. Business inventories were drawn down in the first quarter. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.47% to settled at 1727 while prices up 0.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 236.6 and below same could see a test of 235.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 239.2, a move above could see prices testing 240.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 235.3-240.5.
* Zinc gains as data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots decreased 3,600 mt to 112,900 mt.
* Stocks in Shanghai continued to decrease as the arrivals of imported zinc were limited and the market mainly digested domestic zinc.
* The U.S. trade deficit increased in May as efforts by business to rebuild inventories amid booming demand pulled in imports.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.99% at 1372.2 as support seen after new orders for U.S.-made goods rebounded sharply in May, while business spending on equipment remained solid, despite bottlenecks in the supply chain. The Commerce Department said that factory orders surged 1.7% in May after slipping 0.1% in April. US Fed suggested to start tightening the monetary policy late this year, and stated that the one-year reduction would be reasonable. The initial jobless claims fell to a new low yesterday since the outbreak of the pandemic. The manufacturing industry PMI for June was slightly lower than expected, but stayed in rapid expansion. Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 129,000 wmt from June 25 to 5.23 million wmt as of July 2, showed data. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports increased 19,000 wmt during the same period to 3.42 million wmt. Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas decreased 400 mt from a week ago and stood at 10,300 mt as of July 2, showed data. As inventories of nickel plates in China were at a low level and the import window was open, hundreds of mt of Russian nickel stocks were imported into China after customs clearance on week. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.06% to settled at 2514 while prices up 13.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1354.7 and below same could see a test of 1337.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1383.4, a move above could see prices testing 1394.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1337.1-1394.5.
* Nickel prices gained as support seen after new orders for U.S.-made goods rebounded sharply in May
* The US manufacturing industry PMI for June was slightly lower than expected, but stayed in rapid expansion.
* Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas decreased 400 mt from a week ago and stood at 10,300 mt as of July 2, showed data.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.19% at 200.5 supported by tight supply and continued robust demand from the automotive, packaging and construction sectors. Russia is planning new export taxes for steel products, nickel, aluminum and copper, which will cost their producers around $2.3 billion. On top of that, a production curb in China's top-producing province of Yunnan and a slow start to new capacity addition supercharged existing bullish sentiment. Data showed that China’s social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas increased 2,000 mt on the week to 876,000 mt as of July 1. The stocks kept falling in Wuxi and Hainan, while the inventories in the regions of South China Sea rose from the previous week due to the higher arrivals and lower outbound volume. New orders for U.S.-made goods rebounded sharply in May, while business spending on equipment remained solid, despite bottlenecks in the supply chain. The Commerce Department said that factory orders surged 1.7% in May after slipping 0.1% in April. The U.S. trade deficit increased in May as efforts by business to rebuild inventories amid booming demand pulled in imports. The Commerce Department said that the trade gap rose 3.1% to $71.2 billion in May. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.62% to settled at 3177 while prices up 2.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 198.8 and below same could see a test of 197 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 201.9, a move above could see prices testing 203.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 197-203.2.
* Aluminium prices gained supported by tight supply and continued robust demand from the automotive, packaging and construction sectors.
* Russia is planning new export taxes for steel products, nickel, aluminum and copper, which will cost their producers around $2.3 billion.
* A production curb in China's top-producing province of Yunnan and a slow start to new capacity addition supercharged existing bullish sentiment.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -3.41% at 1023 on profit booking as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. However upside seen limited as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -16.9 Rupees to end at 1092.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.4% to settled at 775 while prices down -36.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1005.6 and below same could see a test of 988.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1045.6, a move above could see prices testing 1068.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 988.3-1068.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -16.9 Rupees to end at 1092.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped on profit booking as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather.
* Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.69% at 7473 tracking rise in CBOT prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged plantings below expectations. The USDA said U.S. farmers planted soy on 87.555 million acres, below analysts' expectations for 88.955 million. In a quarterly stocks report, USDA said domestic soybean stocks as of June 1 came in at a six-year low of 767 million bushels. Support also seen as slow monsoon progress and lesser availability of certified soyabean seeds may impact kharif sowing of the oilseed in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, top two producers of the crop in the country. “There is lesser availability of certified seeds this year,” D N Pathak, executive director of leading trade body Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA), told. “The soyabean crop last year was damaged due to excessive rains, high temperature and pest attack, for which the quality of seeds with the farmers maybe not so good.” Though sowing has started in some parts of Madhya Pradesh it is yet to pick up in many places due to lesser rains, Pathak said. Sowing of soyabean generally gets completed by the first week of July. “We still have time. If it rains, then sowing will pick up faster,” he said. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 140 Rupees to 7485 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.32% to settled at 24815 while prices up 51 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7386 and below same could see a test of 7299 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7525, a move above could see prices testing 7577.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7299-7577.
* Soyabean prices gained tracking rise in CBOT prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged plantings below expectations.
* The USDA said U.S. farmers planted soy on 87.555 million acres, below analysts' expectations for 88.955 million.
* CME raises soybean futures maintenance margins by 11.1% to $5,000 per contract from $4,500 for July 2021
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  140 Rupees to 7485 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 2.85% at 1291.3 as concerns over tightening edible oil supply underpinned prices. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market. India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period. India has put on hold a proposal to reduce import taxes on edible oils as cooking oil prices started to fall in the world market after hitting record highs, two government and one industry officials told. India slashed the base import prices of palm oil and soybean oil for a fortnight, the government said in a statement, as prices of the cooking oils fell sharply in the global market. Imports would remain elevated even in June as many states are easing lockdowns and allowing restaurants to reopen. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1293.85 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.67% to settled at 27665 while prices up 35.8 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1264 and below same could see a test of 1237 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1309, a move above could see prices testing 1327.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1237-1327.
* Ref soyoil ended with gains as concerns over tightening edible oil supply underpinned prices.
* India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market.
* India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1293.85 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.32% at 1024.8 driven by prospects of stronger demand after allowed imports of refined palm oil and cut tax on the commodity. India declared that the import of refined palm oil is amended from 'Restricted' to 'Free', allowing imports of the product for six months. India allowed imports of refined bleached deodorized palm oil for six months, the government said in a statement. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market. The country cut the import tax on refined palm oil to 41.25% from 49.5% for three months to bring down local edible oil prices. Malaysia is facing a labour shortfall of around 32,000 people and annual losses of 10 billion ringgit ($2.41 billion) due to corononavirus restrictions, the country's commodities minister said. Top producer Indonesia has set a lower reference price in July for crude palm oil at $1,094.15 a tonne. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June rose 7.1 percent to 1,519,180 tonnes from 1,418,932 tonnes shipped during May. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 7.5 Rupees to end at 1027.3 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.43% to settled at 4815 while prices up 13.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1013.3 and below same could see a test of 1001.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1031.8, a move above could see prices testing 1038.9.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1001.9-1038.9.
* Crude palm oil gains driven by prospects of stronger demand after allowed imports of refined palm oil and cut tax on the commodity.
* India declared that the import of refined palm oil is amended from 'Restricted' to 'Free', allowing imports of the product for six months.
* Fitch says Indonesia's export levy revision to pressure crude palm oil prices
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 7.5 Rupees to end at 1027.3 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 2.4% at 7199 as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. However upside seen limited pushed lower by flagging global overseas prices amid forecasts for beneficial rains across the Canadian Prairie. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 42 Rupees to end at 7212.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.19% to settled at 34960 while prices up 169 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7072 and below same could see a test of 6945 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7285, a move above could see prices testing 7371.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6945-7371.
* Mustard seed gained as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.
* U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.
* Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 42 Rupees to end at 7212.5 Rupees per 100 kg.


Turmeric


Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.31% at 7354 on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices. The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7337.5 Rupees gained 7.5 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.26% to settled at 7295 while prices up 166 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7200 and below same could see a test of 7046 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7470, a move above could see prices testing 7586.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7046-7586.
* Turmeric prices gained on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices.
* The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7337.5 Rupees gained 7.5 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.69% at 13215 on short covering after prices dropped in recent sessions amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets. Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions. In the benchmark market Unjha, 7,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) arrived yesterday as against 10,000 bags. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -47.2 Rupees to end at 13552.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.68% to settled at 5157 while prices up 90 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13140 and below same could see a test of 13065 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13270, a move above could see prices testing 13325.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13065-13325.
* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped in recent sessions amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying
* Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions.
* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -47.2 Rupees to end at 13552.8 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.12% at 24790 following a disappointing U.S. Agriculture Department report that some traders expected to show a bigger drop in planted acres of the natural fiber. The cotton crop in Bathinda and Mansa districts of Punjab has been infected with a pest called pink bollworm for the second consecutive year. CAI demand for withdrawal of 10 per cent customs duty on cotton imports. Trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has expressed concerns of India losing its competitiveness to China, Pakistan and Bangladesh in the international market. With 10 per cent customs duty on cotton varieties including extra-long staple (ELS), the export-oriented garments and cotton-madeups become costlier thereby giving an edge to the close competitors. The 10 per cent customs duty was imposed on cotton imports on February 2, 2021. The CAI has written a letter to the Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman seeking the withdrawal of duty. In the letter, Atul Ganatra, President, CAI, said that India produced merely 5-6 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) of ELS variety of cotton as against the local requirement of about 12 to 15 lakh bales of ELS and about 5-7 lakh bales of non ELS contamination-free sustainable cotton. The daily arrivals have stopped, as farmers and stockists have less stock. In spot market, Cotton gained by 100 Rupees to end at 24760 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.29% to settled at 6813 while prices down -30 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 24690 and below same could see a test of 24580 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24890, a move above could see prices testing 24980.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 24580-24980.
* Cotton dropped following a disappointing USDA report that some traders expected to show a bigger drop in planted acres
* The cotton crop in Bathinda and Mansa districts of Punjab has been infected with a pest called pink bollworm for the second consecutive year.
* CAI demand for withdrawal of 10 per cent customs duty on cotton imports.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 100 Rupees to end at 24760 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 1.02% at 5066 as the slow progress of monsoon has delayed sowing of pulses, and some pockets of the country may have to go for re-sowing if rainfall does not revive in a week. The India Meteorology Department (IMD) has forecast a break in the monsoon till July 5, but the industry is hoping for a revival sooner as the next one week will be crucial for kharif output. It is observed that NAFED buying stopped after mid-April as market price move above the MSP level i.e. above Rs. 5100/qtl. So far, NAFED It is observed that NAFED buying stopped after mid-April as market price move above the MSP level i.e. above Rs. 5100/qtl. So far, NAFED. Chana import for FY 2020-21 (Apr-Feb) stood at 2.89 lakh tonnes which is down by 21% as against 3.66 lakh tonnes imported during the corresponding period of the previous year. Import and export in month of February 2021 reported at 0.12 lakh tonnes and 0.11 lakh tonnes, respectively. Apart from Chana, 10.97 lakh tonnes of Masur and 3.67 lakh tonnes of Urad & Moong have been imported during 2020-21 (Apr-Feb) and total Pulses import stood at 24.14 lakh tonnes. Australia's exports of Chana in March remained down on a monthly basis, shows the data released from Australia Bureau of Statistics reports. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 82.35 Rupees to end at 5028.35 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.94% to settled at 90940 while prices up 51 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5020 and below same could see a test of 4973 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5100, a move above could see prices testing 5133.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4973-5133.
* Chana prices seen supported earlier as the slow progress of monsoon has delayed sowing of pulses
* However some pockets of the country may have to go for re-sowing if rainfall does not revive in a week.
* IMD has forecast a break in the monsoon till July 5, but the industry is hoping for a revival sooner as the next one week will be crucial for kharif output.
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 82.35 Rupees to end at 5028.35 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer