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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 56750 as the dollar slipped after data showed signs of cooling inflation in the United States, cementing expectations the Federal Reserve might stick to a moderate rate-hiking path. Although both headline and core inflation rates slowed less than expected in January, monthly figures came in line with forecasts. The new data changed little expectations about the Fed's plans, with the central bank expected to continue to raise interest rates. Markets now expect the Fed funds rate to peak around 5%-5.2% in July, roughly the same compared to before the release. China raised its gold reserves for a third straight month as central banks worldwide bolster their holdings of the safe-haven asset. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased reserves by about 15 tons in January, according to data, pushing its total to 2,025 tons. In the prior two months, it added a combined 62 tons. Russia decided to sell some of its gold to cover the budget deficit in January as income from oil and gas revenues fell. Turkey will suspend some gold imports as part of an emergency plan to mitigate the economic fallout from two earthquakes that hit the country's southern region last week. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.88% to settle at 14204 while prices are up 253 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 56485 and below same could see a test of 56221 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57006, a move above could see prices testing 57263.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 56221-57263.
* Gold prices gained as the dollar slipped after data showed signs of cooling inflation in the United States
* Although both headline and core inflation rates slowed less than expected in January, monthly figures came in line with forecasts.
* China raised its gold reserves for a third straight month


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 66251 as investors digested the latest inflation report. Pressure also seen as hotter-than-expected economic data dashed hopes for the termination of the Fed's tightening cycle. At the same, recession concerns weighed on prices, as investors worried about lower demand for the metal as an industrial input for goods with high electricity conduction needs, which was reflected in its sharp underperformance to gold in January. U.S consumer prices accelerated in January, but the annual increase was the smallest since late 2021, pointing to a continued slowdown in inflation and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on a moderate interest rate hiking path. The consumer price index increased 0.5% last month after gaining 0.1% in December, the Labor Department said. Monthly inflation was boosted in part by rising gasoline prices, which increased 3.6% in January, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Housing's share of the CPI has now been raised, but weights for transportation and food were lowered. The revisions, updated seasonal factors and new weights prompted some economists to bump up their CPI forecasts. Still, projections of weak supply limited the fall, as COMEX inventories remained under pressure and LBMA stockpiles plunged amid outflows to India. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.92% to settle at 14087 while prices are up 107 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65716 and below same could see a test of 65181 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66730, a move above could see prices testing 67209.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 65181-67209.
* Silver steadied as investors digested the latest inflation report.
* Earlier pressure on prices amid hotter-than-expected economic data dashed hopes for the termination of the Fed's tightening cycle.
* U.S consumer prices accelerated in January, but the annual increase was the smallest since late 2021, pointing to a continued slowdown in inflation


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.2% at 6566 after the US announced plans to release 26 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, countering the impact of Russian output cuts and recovering Chinese demand. The Ceyhan terminal in Turkey, which exports about 1 million barrels of crude per day, also resumed operations after being disrupted by a major earthquake last week. OPEC has raised its 2023 forecast for global oil demand growth in its first upward revision for months, citing China's relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions and slightly stronger prospects for the world economy. Global oil demand will rise this year by 2.32 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.3%, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report. The projection was 100,000 bpd higher than last month's forecast. Higher demand could support oil prices that have held relatively steady since the end of last year and stand at a little less than $86 a barrel. "Key to oil demand growth in 2023 will be the return of China from its mandated mobility restrictions and the effect this will have on the country, the region and the world," OPEC said in the report. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -35.57% to settle at 4219 while prices are down -80 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6475 and below same could see a test of 6383 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6625, a move above could see prices testing 6683.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6383-6683.
* Crude oil dropped after the US announced plans to release 26 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves
* OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 590,000 bpd in 2023
* Producer group also raised global economic growth forecast


Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 6.16% at 213.6 on a rapid increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports following the partial return of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. Prices also gained support from a decline in gas output this month and forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand next week than previously expected.The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to reach 13.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday, the highest since March 2022, as Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas pulled in more gas as it prepares to exit an eight-month outage caused by a fire in June 2022, according to data provider Refinitiv. Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was on track to pull in 0.7 bcfd of feedgas on Tuesday, up from 0.5 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv. Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has fallen from 98.3 bcfd in January to 97.0 bcfd so far in February, after extreme cold earlier in the month froze oil and gas wells in several producing basins. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 1 except for some cold days around Feb. 17-18 and Feb. 23-25. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -19.15% to settle at 31974 while prices are up 12.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 204.8 and below same could see a test of 195.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.1, a move above could see prices testing 224.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 195.9-224.5.
* Natural gas jumped on a rapid increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports following the partial return of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas.
* Prices also gained support from a decline in gas output this month and forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand next week than previously expected.
* Freeport LNG, was on track to pull in 0.7 bcfd of feedgas on Tuesday, up from 0.5 bcfd on Monday.


Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.78% at 778.15 as China’s inventory growth fell due to the recovery of consumption and scarce arrivals of imported copper. Over the weekend, only Shanghai saw destocking, mainly due to the reduction in shipments from smelters to warehouses. However, speculation grew that copper markets could be heading into a severe deficit amid increasingly challenging supply streams in South America. Freeport-McMoRan Inc cut its first-quarter copper sales forecast after heavy rains and landslides shut operations at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia over the weekend, with the mine not expected to be back online until the end of the month. China's MMG Ltd said on Friday its Las Bambas copper mine in Peru was able to secure critical supplies, enabling it to continue production at a reduced rate after road blockades prevented the arrival of key raw materials. "Levels of critical supplies remain low and should the situation remain unchanged, Las Bambas will be forced to commence a period of care and maintenance," the company said in a statement. Since the Dec. 7 ouster of leftist President Pedro Castillo, operations in key Peru mines have been hampered by transport constraints and some attacks by protesters. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.49% to settle at 3866 while prices are up 6.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 772.3 and below same could see a test of 766.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 782.2, a move above could see prices testing 786.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 766.5-786.3.
* Copper prices gained as China’s inventory growth fell due to the recovery of consumption and scarce arrivals of imported copper.
* However, speculation grew that copper markets could be heading into a severe deficit amid increasingly challenging supply streams in South America.
* China's MMG secures supplies to continue copper production at reduced rate in Peru


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 274.75 as the hawkish speeches of Fed officials put pressure on metal prices. China’s zinc concentrate output fell in January due to closures during CNY holidays. Zinc concentrate output stood at 128,600 mt in metal content in January, down 58,300 mt in metal content month-on-month but up 2,000 mt in metal content year-on-year. The overall operating rates of zinc concentrate were 50.9%, down 26.4% on the month. In 2023, the production capacity of new samples was adjusted from 3.249 million mt/year to 3.262 million mt/year, an increase of 13,000 mt/year. China imported 415,200 mt of zinc concentrates in December 2022, down 7.58% on the month, but up 72.8% on the year. The imports totalled 4.13 million mt last year, a year-on-year increase of 13.34%. Prices of London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc for delivery tomorrow traded at a large premium over prices for the following day due to buying fuelled by nervousness about availability in the LME system as stocks hit historic lows. The phenomenon in which metal is priced more richly in the near term than further out, known as backwardation, is often seen as a sign of underlying tightness in the market. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.44% to settle at 2581 while prices are down -0.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 273 and below same could see a test of 271.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 277.2, a move above could see prices testing 279.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 271.2-279.6.
* Zinc prices fell under pressure of lingering inflation overseas
* Historically low stocks behind spike in zinc price for delivery tomorrow
* The SHFE/LME zinc price ratio slipped to around 7.1, expanding import losses to above 3,500 yuan/mt.


Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.16% at 213.75 as there has been no substantial progress in reducing production on the supply side. Aluminium ingot inventory remained in accumulation cycle. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 1.22 million mt as of February 13, up 28,000 mt from last Thursday and 75,000 mt from February 6. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 224,000 mt. At present, the social inventory is still in seasonal accumulation cycle, but the growth has slowed down. According to historical data, the accumulation trend post the CNY holidays will last for an average of 3-4 weeks. The power costs of aluminium smelters with captive power plants declined in tandem with falling coal prices, but the grid power tariffs barely changed. Data showed that the weighted average electricity price of smelters dipped 0.02 yuan/kwh from the beginning of January to 0.44 yuan/kwh as of February 10. China's annual aluminum production in 2022 increased by 4.5% from a year earlier to a record high of 40.21 million tonnes. China's producer prices dropped 0.8% yoy in January 2023, after a 0.7% fall in the previous month, worse than market forecasts of a 0.5% decline. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.28% to settle at 2920 while prices are down -0.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 213.1 and below same could see a test of 212.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 214.8, a move above could see prices testing 215.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 212.3-215.7.
* Aluminium dropped as there has been no substantial progress in reducing production on the supply side.
* The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s markets totalled 1.22 million mt as of February 13, up 28,000 mt
* China's annual aluminum production in 2022 increased by 4.5% from a year earlier to a record high of 40.21 million tonnes.


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 993.6 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.4 Rupees to end at 1166.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.76% to settle at 704 while prices are up 1.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 988.9 and below same could see a test of 984.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 996.7, a move above could see prices testing 999.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 984.1-999.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.4 Rupees to end at 1166.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.58% at 6890 in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop. Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high. The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop. Yield is high in some areas and low in some areas, though Actually, we are wondering what the actual production could be in Maharashtra since the area under the crop has gone up rapidly this year. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6985.25 Rupees dropped -77.15 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.4% to settle at 13820 while prices are down -40 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6826 and below same could see a test of 6760 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6962, a move above could see prices testing 7032.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6760-7032.
* Turmeric dropped in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop.
* Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6985.25 Rupees dropped -77.15 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -3.33% at 30495 as Jeera production has been projected at 4.14 lt in the current season. Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt. The acreage of jeera, is higher by 4.6 per cent this season. The report said the area under jeera increased 13 per cent in Rajasthan to 6.10 lakh hectares (lh). In Gujarat, the acreage dropped by 10 per cent to 2.75 lh. But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -476.6 Rupees to end at 31249.05 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.64% to settle at 4164 while prices are down -1050 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 30065 and below same could see a test of 29635 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31170, a move above could see prices testing 31845.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 29635-31845.
* Jeera prices dropped as Jeera production has been projected at 4.14 lt in the current season.
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -476.6 Rupees to end at 31249.05 Rupees per 100 kg.

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