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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.21% at 59506 after prices backed off from 60000 mark in a volatile trade as investors assess the health of the global banking sector even as increasing bets of a rate pause by the Federal Reserve kept bullion near its one-year peak. Investors will keenly watch a Fed policy decision due on Wednesday. Traders are now pricing in a 49% chance of the Fed holding rates in the current range. Risk aversion gripped financial markets despite global central banks announcing measures to provide dollar liquidity in a bid to stem fallout from panic in the banking sector. Similarly, concerns mounted about the health of the global financial system despite UBS Group AG, Switzerland's largest banking group, agreeing to buy the crisis-hit Credit Suisse Group AG in a historic, government-brokered deal. A rally in bullion prices sparked by the global banking rout forced Indian dealers to offer steeper discounts on physical gold to lure retail customers and led to a drop in China premiums, while tempting some to resort to selling. Discounts in India widened to their highest in six weeks, as local gold prices jumped not far from the record high hit last month. Indian dealers were offering a discount of up to $27 an ounce over official domestic prices, up from $2 last week. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.13% to settle at 8557 while prices are up 123 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59007 and below same could see a test of 58508 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60230, a move above could see prices testing 60954.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58508-60954.
* Gold slips from 60000 level as investors assess banking concerns
* Risk aversion gripped financial markets despite global central banks announcing measures to provide dollar liquidity
* All eyes on Fed policy meeting this week

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 68838 as investors continue to monitor the banking turmoil. The Swiss government engineered a forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS in response to client outflows and a dramatic selloff in the target company’s stock and bonds. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve and five other central banks announced coordinated action to improve liquidity in US dollar swap arrangements to maintain stability in the global financial system. These developments came on the heels of a global banking crisis that started with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US which spurred a selloff in risk assets. Investors now look ahead to the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday, where it is expected to deliver a more moderate 25 basis point rate increase in light of easing inflationary pressures and the recent banking turmoil. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US dropped for the first time in four months to 63.4 in March of 2023 from 67 in February, which was the highest reading in nearly a year, and well below forecasts of 67, a preliminary estimate showed. Manufacturing production in the United States increased 0.1 percent in February 2023, compared with expectations of a 0.1 percent decrease. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.27% to settle at 12844 while prices are up 337 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68142 and below same could see a test of 67447 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69541, a move above could see prices testing 70245.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67447-70245.
* Silver gains as investors continue to monitor the banking turmoil.
* The Swiss government engineered a forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS in response to client outflows
* Consumer sentiment for the US dropped for the first time in four months to 63.4 in March of 2023 from 67 in February


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.93% at 5532 on concerns that risks in the global banking sector and a potential increase in U.S. interest rates could spark a recession that would sap fuel demand. After the deal was announced, the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other major central banks pledged to enhance market liquidity and support other banks. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on March 22 despite the recent banking sector turmoil. Further out, a ministerial committee of OPEC and producer allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, is set for April 3. The group agreed in October to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023. U.S. crude oil exports hit a record high in 2022 as releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) nearly matched the increase in domestic output to boost U.S. supply to countries looking to replace Russian crude. Exports of U.S. crude rose by 22% from 2021 to reach a peak of 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, as greater demand from Europe offset lower exports to India and China, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.86% to settle at 13721 while prices are down -52 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5399 and below same could see a test of 5267 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5623, a move above could see prices testing 5715.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5267-5715.
* Crude oil fell as uncertainties in financial sector would reduce fuel demand.
* US crude oil exports hit record high in 2022, EIA data shows
* U.S. crude stockpiles rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week


Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -5.78% at 185.9 on forecasts for less cold weather and lower demand this week than previously expected and with an increase in gas output so far this month. That lack of price movement came despite forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected and record gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants since the return in February of Freeport LNG's plant in Texas from an eight-month outage. Freeport LNG's export plant was on track to pull in 0.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas for a third day in a row on Monday, according to data provider Refinitiv. When operating at full power, Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export. The plant was shut due to a fire in June 2022. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.7 bcfd so far in March from 98.2 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near-normal through April 3. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.66% to settle at 34211 while prices are down -11.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 180.5 and below same could see a test of 175 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.5, a move above could see prices testing 207.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 175-207.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for less cold weather and lower demand
* EIA reported a 58 Bcf withdrawal from U.S. natural gas storage, leaving stockpiles at 1,972 Bcf
* U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023 while demand will fall, the EIA said.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.48% at 758.35 as worries over a global banking crisis eased, with copper further supported by improving consumption in China. Measures by authorities to avert a global banking crisis lifted market confidence as investors welcomed a historic Swiss-backed acquisition of troubled Credit Suisse by UBS Group and emergency dollar liquidity from top central banks. Yangshan copper premium rose to $50 a tonne, its highest since December last year, indicating improving appetite for imported copper into China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal. SHFE copper inventories fell for the third straight week to 182,341 tonnes, their lowest since Jan. 20. China's copper consumption is rebounding firmly and will likely stay strong in the next quarter, buoyed by a seasonal peak in demand and easing COVID-19 restrictions in the world's biggest consumer of the metal. The long-awaited rebound is providing much-needed support for copper prices, battered by a widening banking crisis in the United States and liquidity issues at Swiss lender Credit Suisse. China's housing completion by areas rebounded 8% year-on-year in January and February from a 15% drop in the whole of 2022, National Bureau of Statistics data showed. The recovery in the property sector is boosting copper cable orders, while copper tube makers are also running strong. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.84% to settle at 2526 while prices are up 3.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 749.7 and below same could see a test of 740.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 763.3, a move above could see prices testing 768.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 740.9-768.1.
* Copper rose as worries over a global banking crisis eased.
* Yangshan copper premium rose to $50 a tonne, its highest since December last year
* SHFE copper inventories fell for the third straight week to 182,341 tonnes, their lowest since Jan. 20.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.47% at 256.25 as the global zinc market deficit fell to 18,300 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 80,300 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 100,500 tonnes in December. The deficit of 18,300 tonnes in January compares with a surplus of 15,000 tonnes in the same month last year, ILZSG data showed. China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the seventh straight month in March, as expected, after the central bank surprised markets last week by moving to lower the amount of cash banks must set aside as reserves. Market watchers widely believe the need for more imminent monetary easing was reduced after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on March 17 it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). On Monday the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.30%. Last week the PBOC ramped up medium-term liquidity injections when rolling over maturing policy loans but kept the interest rate unchanged. That rate, called the medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate, serves as a guide to changes in the LPR. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.13% to settle at 2502 while prices are down -1.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 254.8 and below same could see a test of 253.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 257.4, a move above could see prices testing 258.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 253.3-258.5.
* Zinc dropped as zinc market deficit slides to 18,300 T in January
* China keeps lending benchmarks unchanged in March, as expected
*Traders continued to weigh the prospects of recovery by top consumer China against supply worries.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.17% at 203.85 supported by a weaker dollar and signs of improving demand from top consumer China. Global primary aluminium output rose 2.7% year on year in February to 5.273 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.107 million tonnes in February, the IAI said. China's aluminium imports in the first two months of 2023 rose 11.3% from a year earlier, official data showed, as buyers anticipated improving demand for the metal following the country's reopening. Arrivals of unwrought aluminium and products including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium totalled 374,321 tonnes in January and February combined, according to the General Administration of Customs. That compares with 336,007 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. China dropped its strict COVID-19 restrictions late last year, buoying hopes of an economic recovery and better demand for industrial metals. Manufacturing activity in the world's second-largest economy expanded at the fastest pace in more than a decade in February. The first two months also saw domestic primary aluminium output climb 7.5% year-on-year to 6.74 million tonnes, the highest for the period since at least 2015, data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed earlier this week. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.43% to settle at 3128 while prices are up 0.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 202.2 and below same could see a test of 200.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 205.1, a move above could see prices testing 206.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 200.3-206.1.
* Aluminum gains supported by a weaker dollar and signs of improving demand.
* Global aluminium output rises 2.7% y/y to 5.27 mln T in February – IAI
* China Jan – Feb aluminium imports rose 11.3% on year


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.03% at 993.6 on profit booking after seen supported on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.3 Rupees to end at 1174.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.06% to settle at 513 while prices are down -10.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 981.4 and below same could see a test of 969.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1004.4, a move above could see prices testing 1015.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 969.2-1015.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.3 Rupees to end at 1174.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after seen supported on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.16% at 6794 on short covering after prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6786.55 Rupees dropped -71.9 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.05% to settle at 12260 while prices are up 78 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6740 and below same could see a test of 6684 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6842, a move above could see prices testing 6888.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6684-6888.
* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in key growing regions
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6786.55 Rupees dropped -71.9 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.39% at 33310 as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead. Buyers get active in most of the markets with the commencement of new crop arrivals. Strong supply pressures are reported in the market at 7,000 bags, higher by 1,000 bags as farmers and stockiests are anticipating corrections in prices with the improved crop conditions due to favourable weather conditions in key producing states. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 17.85 percent at 1,54,782.65 tonnes as compared to 1,88,428.54 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 8,716.71 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,798.15 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 31.89%. In January 2023 around 8,716.71 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,725.40 tonnes in January 2022 showing a drop of 40.80%. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 682.2 Rupees to end at 33067.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.93% to settle at 6006 while prices are up 130 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 32860 and below same could see a test of 32410 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33980, a move above could see prices testing 34650.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 32410-34650.
* Jeera prices rose as export demand has improved due to the Ramadan season ahead
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 682.2 Rupees to end at 33067.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

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