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Gold yesterday settled up by 0.5% at 60082 as top central banks switch to a more cautious posture about further moves in their year-long round of global monetary tightening. Data showed annual U.S. inflation rose at its slowest pace in over two years in June, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve was closer to ending its fastest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s. Two European Central Bank policymakers raised the prospect of an end to its longest string of rate rises. The U.S. Department of Commerce said its core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased 0.2% last month, compared to May's increase of 0.3%. Inflation in the last 12 months rose 4.1%, down sharply from June's 4.6% increase. Annual inflation also came in a tick cooler than expected. Looking at the broader trend, inflation remains stubbornly high, roughly double the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Chinese physical gold premiums rose to a four-month high on robust demand, while a price retreat fuelled a slight recovery in purchases in India. Premiums in top consumer China rose to $15-$22 an ounce over global prices from $9-$17 last week. Data showed China's June net gold imports via Hong Kong fell to their lowest in five months. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.57% to settle at 15606 while prices are up 297 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59753 and below same could see a test of 59424 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60259, a move above could see prices testing 60436.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59424-60436.
* Gold gains as top central banks switch to a more cautious posture about further moves in their year-long round of global monetary tightening.
* Data showed annual U.S. inflation rose at its slowest pace in over two years in June
* Two European Central Bank policymakers raised the prospect of an end to its longest string of rate rises.

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.85% at 75427 underpinned by growing expectations that major central banks may be nearing the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle amid easing inflationary pressures. In the US, data showed that annual core PCE prices rose 4.1% in June, the lowest since September 2021 and less than market expectations of 4.2%. Last week, the Fed implemented a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike in what analysts suggested could be the last rate increase in the current monetary tightening cycle. Two officials from the European Central Bank also hinted at a possible end to interest rate rises as the outlook for the region’s economy worsened. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan loosened its grip on interest rates, allowing the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to rise above 0.5%. Data showed that the Fed's favorite inflation gauge slowed to a two-year low in June, easing concerns about the outlook for interest rates. Eurostat reported earlier today that Eurozone returned to growth in the second quarter amid falling inflation. The inflation outlook is "quite positive", and the base case scenario seems to be that we would avoid a recession, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.69% to settle at 17638 while prices are up 1368 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 74304 and below same could see a test of 73182 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 76024, a move above could see prices testing 76622.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 73182-76622.
* Silver gains underpinned by growing expectations that major central banks may be nearing the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle
* Data showed that annual core PCE prices rose 4.1% in June, the lowest since September 2021
* Fed's favorite inflation gauge slowed to a two-year low in June, easing concerns about the outlook for interest rates.



Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.79% at 6697 as signs of tightening global supply and an improving demand outlook bolstered oil prices. Markets fretted about voluntary output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia that are squeezing the market, with the former expected to extend its additional 1 million barrels per day cut through September. On the demand side, analysts upgraded their global oil demand forecasts for this year and next year, citing stronger growth estimates in major economies. Easing inflationary pressures in the US and growing expectations for an end in the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign also boosted market sentiment. "Oil prices are up 18% since mid-June as record high demand and Saudi supply cuts have brought back deficits, and as the market has abandoned its growth pessimism," Goldman Sachs said. The bank estimated that global oil demand rose to a record 102.8 million bpd in July and it revised up 2023 demand by about 550,000 bpd on stronger economic growth estimates in India and the U.S., offsetting a downgrade for China's consumption. The survey predicted front month Brent oil would average $81.95 a barrel in 2023, down from June's $83.03 consensus. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.38% to settle at 11246 while prices are up 118 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6620 and below same could see a test of 6543 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6746, a move above could see prices testing 6795.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6543-6795.
* Crude oil gained amid signs of tightening global supply.
* Markets fretted about voluntary output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia that are squeezing the market.
* Riyadh expected to extend voluntary cuts to Sep



Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 216.7 on forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected with the weather projected to remain hotter than normal through at least mid-August. Meteorologists forecast will be the hottest day of the summer so far in the U.S. Lower 48 states and the second hottest on record, according to Refinitiv data going back to 2018. Refinitiv said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 101.5 bcfd so far in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 101.8 bcfd in May. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 1.9 bcfd to a preliminary one-month low of 99.7 bcfd due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and Colorado. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 12. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 105.4 bcfd this week to 106.5 bcfd next week before easing to 106.2 bcfd as the weather starts to become seasonally less hot. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.92% to settle at 37509 while prices are up 0.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 214.1 and below same could see a test of 211.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 220.8, a move above could see prices testing 224.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 211.4-224.8.
* Natural gas gained on forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks.
* The U.S. EIA, which uses a different data set, has said the 2022 record was set on July 21.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 101.5 bcfd so far in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June.




Copper yesterday settled up by 1.63% at 755.9 spurred by hopes of further stimulus from China but weak manufacturing data from the top consumer, concerns about demand and a higher dollar capped gain. However, China's manufacturing sector has contracted for the fourth month running, suggesting weak metal consumption. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer, dropped 0.9% year-on-year in June to 457,921 metric tons, the country's INE statistics agency said. China released additional policy guidelines but no concrete measures to boost its sputtering economy and domestic consumption. Also weighing on LME copper prices are rising stocks in LME-approved warehouses, which at 68,350 tonnes are up 26% since July 12. Cancelled warrants at less than 1% compared with 68% in late June have also eased concerns about copper availability on the LME market. The global refined copper market showed a 65,000 metric tons deficit in May, compared with a 33,000 metric tons surplus in April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 5 months of the year, the market was in a 287,000 metric tons surplus compared with a 74,000 metric tons deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.55% to settle at 4692 while prices are up 12.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 746.5 and below same could see a test of 737.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 760.8, a move above could see prices testing 765.7.
Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 737.1-765.7.
* Copper climbed spurred by hopes of further stimulus from China
* China's manufacturing sector has contracted for the fourth month running, suggesting weak metal consumption.
* Chile copper output production 0.9% in June



Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.76% at 227.35 as traders cheered the prospects of further stimulus in top consumer China and that the U.S. Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes for the year. Pledges from the Chinese authorities to boost the country's troubled property sector have also been fuelling bullish sentiment in the metals market. Looking ahead, S&P Global predicts a modest 1.4% growth in global refined zinc demand for 2023, as both the US and Europe continue to grapple with inflation and tight monetary policies. Simultaneously, global refined zinc supply is expected to increase by 1.9%, considering a low base year and as energy costs in Europe ease, while power curbs in China limit zinc smelter production. The global zinc market surplus slipped to 53,000 metric tons in May, down from 64,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first five months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 267,000 metric tons, versus a surplus of 189,000 tons in the same period of 2022. London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks of zinc have risen above 90,000 metric tons for the first time since May of 2022 thanks to a surge of deliveries into Singapore. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 19.58% to settle at 4659 while prices are up 6.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 223 and below same could see a test of 218.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 229.6, a move above could see prices testing 231.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 218.7-231.9.
* Zinc rose as traders cheered the prospects of further stimulus in China
* Pledges from the Chinese authorities to boost the country's troubled property sector.
* Global zinc market surplus falls to 53,000 metric tons in May – ILZSG




Aluminium yesterday settled up by 2.23% at 204.35 as expectations of strong demand were boosted by the end of China's zero-COVID policy. However, upside seen limited the easing of power curbs in the Yunnan region has led to the resumption of aluminum production in the area. Market players estimate activity in the region should return to 50% of curtailed capacity by August. In the first half of the year, China's aluminum imports increased by 10.7% compared to the previous year driven by lower domestic supply resulting from power cuts and reduced rainfall. In the meantime, domestic aluminum production only rose by 3.4%. Data shows aluminium ingot stocks across eight major markets in China were 536,000 mt as of July 27, down 18,000 mt from a week ago and 135,000 mt from a year ago. Limited arrivals and improved consumption contributed to inventory drop. Russian aluminium producer Rusal and the Nigerian government are discussing possible restart of the smelter Alscon in Nigeria which was suspended as loss-making 10 years ago, Rusal said. Alscon produced 22,000 tonnes of aluminium in 2012, 11% of its annual production capacity, before Rusal suspended it in early 2013 due to the lack of reliable gas supply and low aluminium prices. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.85% to settle at 3349 while prices are up 4.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 201.1 and below same could see a test of 197.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206, a move above could see prices testing 207.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 197.9-207.7.
* Aluminium gained, strong demand boosted by China's end to zero-COVID policy.
* However, upside seen limited the easing of power curbs in the Yunnan region has led to the resumption of aluminum production in the area.
* China's aluminum imports increased by 10.7% compared to the previous year driven by lower domestic supply.



Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.25% at 879 amid rise in supplies of new crop. Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up. Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 1.6 Rupees to end at 1033.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.12% to settle at 923 while prices are down -2.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 876 and below same could see a test of 873 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 883.5, a move above could see prices testing 888.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 873-888.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 1.6 Rupees to end at 1033.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil prices dropped amid rise in supplies of new crop.
* Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up.
* Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition.



Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.51% at 15290 driven by consistent demand from the domestic market and export. Moreover, farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage and also lower ending stocks, resulting in a supply shortage in the cash markets. The kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 17,138.35 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 15.69%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 13412.4 Rupees gained 508.05 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.06% to settle at while prices are up 518 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 14886 and below same could see a test of 14482 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15622, a move above could see prices testing 15954.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14482-15954.
* Turmeric prices gained supported by fall in area and slower sowing progress.
* Farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage
* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 13412.4 Rupees gained 508.05 Rupees.



Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.28% at 59215 on profit booking after prices rose as arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan have decreased due to heavy rainfall. Farmers need assistance to bring their produce to the market. However, after the rains subside, cumin arrivals are expected to increase, potentially impacting market dynamics. Support also seen due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -611.45 Rupees to end at 60150.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.57% to settle at while prices are down -765 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 58680 and below same could see a test of 58150 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59865, a move above could see prices testing 60520.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 58150-60520.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose as arrivals decreased
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -611.45 Rupees to end at 60150.8 Rupees per 100 kg.

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