The worst is over- Expert views on February CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, MOFSL Group.
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Below is on The worst is over- Expert views on February CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group.
Food inflation was 5.9% YoY, largely unchanged from 6% in Jan'23
Core inflation was unchanged at 6.2% YoY
Energy inflation was down to 4-month low of 7.8%
CPI ex veggies was 7.6%, slightly lower than 104-month high of 7.8% in Jan'23
Domestically generated inflation was at four-month high of 6.3% YoY last month
Details suggest that 58.4% of CPI basket posted 5%+ inflation, the lowest in seven months (64% in Sep'22)
Overall, the worst of inflation is likely behind us. Headline inflation could fall below 6% in Mar'23 and further down towards 5% in coming months. We also believe that 25bps hike in April by the RBI is almost certain.
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