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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• The US dollar depreciated on Thursday amid negative performance of US treasury yields and weak economic growth. Further, the dollar was pressurised by weak initial jobless claims data and existing home sales data. US initial jobless claims increased 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended May 14 and US existing home sales data dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years in April as house prices jumped to a record high

• US$INR futures maturing on May 27 ended higher yesterday amid negative trend in domestic equities and persistent foreign fund outflows

• The rupee is expected to appreciate today amid retreat in US dollar. However, sharp gains may be prevented by unabated foreign fund outflows. US$INR (May) broke a strong support level at ₹ 77.74 and is expected to trade below its 100 day moving average level. We expect US$INR to trade in the range of ₹ 77.76 to ₹ 77.60

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