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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

* The US dollar index ticked higher amid weakness in global equities. Earlier the dollar was under pressure due to weaker than expected economic numbers. The US CB Consumer confidence numbers declined to 102.9 against market expectation of 108.5. In addition, the Feb Richmond manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to 2 year low of -16 against previous reading of -11

* The rupee future maturing on March 28 appreciated marginally to 82.72 despite weakness in domestic equities

* The rupee is expected to depreciate for the day amid recovery in dollar and decline in India’s quarterly GDP numbers, which dipped to 4.4% against forecast of 4.6%. Further, expectation of improvement in US ISM manufacturing PMI numbers could also support the dollar. US$INR is likely to find the support near 82.50 and rebound again towards 82.84-82.90 zones

Euro and Pound Outlook

* The Euro gave its earlier gains on strong dollar and weak global market sentiments. Earlier Euro gained after ECBGoverning Council member Vujcic said Eurozone price growth appears to be "quite persistent” and it will take time to bring it down. Additionally, the higher inflation numbers from France and Spain pushed the German bund yields to 11 year high at 2.71%

* Euro is expected to trade with a negative bias for the day amid rebound in dollar and expectation of weaker set of manufacturing numbers. EURUSD has failed to go beyond the 20 day EMA resistance at 1.066 and slide below the 1.06 mark. Now the immediate low of 1.053 would be key to the trend. A move below would weaken the pair towards 1.048.. EURINR (March) is expected to slide towards 87.30 as long as it remains under 88.10

* The Pound gave up its strength amid rebound in the dollar and risk aversion in global markets.

* The pound is expected to trade with a negative bias for the day majorly on the back of the strength in dollar and expectation of weaker manufacturing numbers. The manufacturing numbers are still expected to remain under 50, which could limit the upside in the pound. GBPUSD is likely to dip towards 1.1970-1.1950 as the 20 day EMA at 1.2080 would act as key resistance for the pair . GBPINR (March) is expected to dip towards the level of 99.30 as long as it holds below 100.20

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