IGI Logo

Rupee Outlook and Strateg

* The US dollar index fell 0.42% on Friday on lower bond yields, after the Fed policy makers pointed a slow and steady approach is the need of the hour despite strong job market. Further, stronger than expected Chinese economic numbers boosted the risk appetite and weighed on the dollar. Meanwhile, higher than expected Feb ISM services index has limited the downside in the dollar

* The rupee future maturing on March 28 appreciated by 0.77% to 82.07 amid weaker dollar index and rise in foreign fund flows

* The rupee is expected to appreciate further amid a rise in global risk appetite, weakness in dollar. Also, expectation of decline in US factory order numbers could be negative for dollar. US$INR has breached the key support of 50 day EMA support at 82.30 and slid below two week’s consolidation range of 82.30-83.00. Hence, as long as it trades below 82.30, the pair is likely to slip further towards 81.60-81.45

Euro and Pound Outlook

* The Euro gained by 0.35% on Friday on the back of a weaker dollar and rise in German export numbers. The German exports rose by 2.1% MoM, the biggest gain in the last five months. Additionally, hawkish comments from the ECB Governing council members to raise the rate after this months expected 50 bps rate hike has supported the Euro to trade higher. Meanwhile, weaker PPI numbers has restricted the upside in the Euro

* The Euro is expected to trade in a positive bias amid expectation of strong retail sales numbers. EURUSD is likely to rise towards the 20 day EMA at 1.065. On the downside 1.0565 would act as key support to the trend. Further, the recovery in the oscillator RSI towards the neutral zone suggesting an up move. Hence, a move above 1.065 would open the upside in the pair towards 1.0695. EURINR (March) is expected to dip hold the support near towards 86.80 and rebound towards 87.70

* The pound gained the most on Friday after UK service PMI numbers inched higher. Further, rise in risk appetite after better than expected Chinese PMI numbers has lifted the pound from its key support zone

* The pound is expected to trade with a positive bias amid forecast of higher construction PMI numbers. Further weakness in dollar and rising global risk appetite could also support the pair to rise towards 1.2090 for the day. The 20 day EMA at 1.2090 acts as key resistance. On the lower front, 1.1950 holds key to the trend. GBPUSD have to move above the 1.2090 to resume its rally towards 1.2150. GBPINR (March) is expected to hold the support at 98.00 and rise again towards 99.30

Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number INZ000183631

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer