IGI Logo

Nifty : 17081

Technical Outlook

• The index started the session on a positive note and managed to close above 17100 mark despite intraday volatility. The daily price action formed a bull candle carrying higher high-low. The follow through strength above previous session’s high (17061) signifies rejuvenation of upward momentum.

• Going ahead, we expect index to resolve above upper band of past 12 sessions range 17200-16800, gradually paving the way for heading towards 200 days EMA placed at 17500. Structurally, index is undergoing time-wise correction while absorbing host of negative news globally, after approaching lower band of four months falling channel. In the process, weekly stochastic approached oversold territory (placed at 18), indicating impending pullback. Thus, dips should be looked for accumulating quality large caps in a staggered manner as it is a good time to construct portfolio from medium term perspective. Following evidences corroborates with our positive bias:

• A) The India VIX (which gauge the market sentiment) has closed below 14 which would open the door for pullback in the market as it has negative correlation with index

• B) Brent crude prices and US dollar index continue in welldefined down trend, which remain supportive to equities

• C) Empirically, episodes of such high volatility globally and domestically has been painful to deal with in short term but always resulted in a durable bottom formation over medium term once anxiety surrounding events settles down. markets has tendency to bottom out amid bad news and Investing in such times of high volatility has always been rewarding

• Index has managed to hold the key support of 16800 despite elevated global volatility which would continue to act as key support as it is confluence of:

• a) September 2022 low is placed at 16747

• b) 61.8% retracement of CY22 rally 15183-18887, placed at 16600 In the coming session, index is likely to open on a positive note tracking firm global cues. We expect, index to continue with its pullback while maintaining higher high-low formation. Hence, use intraday dip towards 17172-17205 to create intraday long positions for target of 17290 with a stoploss of 17133

Nifty Bank: 39910

Technical Outlook

• The daily price action formed a bull candle with a higher high -low signalling pullback after four sessions of breather . The index started the session on a flat note and gained momentum as the session progressed and closed near the high of the session up by 0 . 9 %

• Bank Nifty is currently placed near the upper band of the last two weeks range 40200 -38600 . A follow through strength above the upper band of the range will open upside towards 41000 levels being the confluence of the 80 % retracement of the previous decline (41671 -38613 ) and the upper band of the gap down area of 9 th March 2023

• Structurally, ongoing corrective phase has already consumed 16 weeks to retrace 80 % gains of preceding 10 weeks rally of October –December (37387 -44151 ) . A slower pace of retracement signifies corrective nature of current decline

• The index has key support at 38200 -38600 levels being the confluence of (a) rising 52 -week ema and (b) 80 % retracement of June -December 2022 up move (37387 - 44151 )

• The weekly stochastic is placed around the neutral reading of 30 signaling continuation of the overall consolidation in the coming sessions In the coming session, the index is likely to open on a flat to positive note amid firm global cues . Index is expected to trade with positive bias while maintaining higher high -low . Hence use intraday dips towards 40060 -40140 for creating long position for the target 40390 , maintain a stoploss of 39940

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number INZ000183631

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer