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Sensex

Trend – The index has seen signs of profit booking in the month of March after making new all-time highs of 52516. After the stellar rally of around 9% the index is approaching the lower end of the rising price channel.

Pattern – The index has closed above its previous resistance which says that bulls are in clear control. Any pullback (if any) should be used as a buying opportunity. Major support is at 48000 going forward.

Momentum – On the weekly chart, the RSI has eased off the overbought territory which says that the momentum is sideways as of now. Good bullish momentum build-up was seen in all the sectors specially in Metals, Banking, FMCG and Pharma.

Direction – The index is expected to trade in positive territory until it breaks 45500 on the downside.

Volatility – The weekly ATR has reached 1700 points which means that Sensex currently has a range of 1700 points for a given week. Although on the daily timeframe, it has remained flat throughout the month with few ups and downs indicating the trend in still intact. INDIAVIX (20.64) has dropped around 26% which means volatility had decreased.

Market breadth – Sensex has been underperforming the BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap index on the monthly timeframe indicating that the overall market breadth is mixed. 426 stocks of BSE 500 index are above the 200-day SMA indicating the larger trend has been stable. The breadth has improved as compared to last month where 409 stocks were above the 200-day MA.

Our take – Sensex is currently in a consolidation after hitting all time high indicating lack of momentum across all the time frames. Though our bias still remains positive, we observed some early signs of profit booking in this overstretched rally, hence traders are advised to wait and watch for short term corrections to create fresh longs. From current levels, the short to medium term trend still remains intact and the bulls to continue their bullish command into the markets towards 52000- 55000 levels. On the downside an immediate support is placed around 48800 levels however any violation of this support zone on closing basis may cause short term correction towards 48000-47300 levels. Major support zone is around 46400- 46000 levels.

Nifty 50

Trend – The index has seen signs of profit booking in the month of March after making new all-time highs of 15431. After the stellar rally of around 9% the index is approaching the lower end of the rising price channel.

Pattern – The index has closed above its previous resistance which says that bulls are in clear control. Any pullback (if any) should be used as a buying opportunity. Major support is at 13600 going forward.

Momentum – On the weekly chart, the RSI has eased off the overbought territory which says that the momentum is sideways as of now. Good bullish momentum build-up was seen in all the sectors specially in Metals, Banking and FMCG and Pharma.

Direction – The index is expected to trade in positive territory until it breaks 13000 on the downside.

Volatility – The weekly ATR has reached 570 points which means that Nifty currently has a range of 570 points for a given week. Although on the daily timeframe, it has remained flat throughout the month with few ups and downs indicating the trend in still intact. INDIAVIX (20.64) has dropped around 26% which means volatility had decreased.

Market breadth – Nifty has been underperforming the NSE Midcap and NSE Smallcap index on the monthly timeframe indicating that the overall market breadth is mixed. 426 stocks of NSE 500 index are above the 200-day SMA indicating the larger trend has been stable. The breadth has improved as compared to last month where 409 stocks were above the 200-day MA.

Our take – Nifty is currently in a consolidation after hitting all time high indicating lack of momentum across all the time frames. Though our bias still remains positive, we observed some early signs of profit booking in this overstretched rally, hence traders are advised to wait and watch for short term corrections to create fresh longs. From current levels, the short to medium term trend still remains intact and the bulls to continue their bullish command into the markets towards 15500- 16000 levels. On the downside an immediate support is placed around 14200 levels however any violation of this support zone on closing basis may cause short term correction towards 13600-13000 levels. Major support zone is around 13000 levels

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