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Sensex (64997) / Nifty (19306)

The Asian markets displayed excitement in the morning, influencing a positive start in our markets, although not to the same extent. Throughout the day, prices gradually moved upwards, but as Nifty approached key intraday levels in the latter half, some hesitation was clearly visible. Consequently, some of the gains were compromised in the process to conclude the day marginally in the green above 19300.

The benchmark index had a lackluster session, causing traders to seek trading opportunities outside the basket. The high beta Bank Index also demonstrated some strength, but Nifty being the underperforming index concluded with a 'Doji' pattern which indicates uncertainty. Going ahead, considering Friday's weakness, it's an encouraging sign that prices are still holding onto the crucial support at 19200. However, to establish a positive momentum, prices need to overcome the strong obstacle in the 19380 – 19400 range, where there was some hesitancy observed yesterday. A successful sustained close above this range would revive optimism, particularly leading up to the monthly expiry. Improved global cues and the banking sector's resilience could serve as catalysts for this positive outlook. Conversely, if the 19200 level is breached (which appears unlikely), there might be extended profit booking pushing prices towards 19000.

Nifty Bank Outlook (44495)

Post starting the day's proceedings on a mild note, the heavyweight index showed resilience as it crawled higher all through the day attempting to close its gap created on Friday. However, as it tried to push higher above the gap resistance zone, the index could not overcome it and eventually ended around 44500 with decent gains of six-tenths of a percent.

Bank Nifty has maintained its buoyancy and strength from past week, wherein it inched higher gradually even after witnessing some weakness on its weekly expiry day. The index appears to have retested its breakout above a small trading range of 44100-43600 on Friday, and yesterday’s move higher towards the 44500 zone springs good news for the rate sensitive index. While we continue to profess a bullish outlook on Bank Nifty with buying interest seen around lower levels, the index needs to quickly close its gap from Friday and break the crucial 45000 level which has continued to restrict any advance higher. A sustainable breakout from this barrier can trigger upward momentum and higher levels for Bank Nifty.

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