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Nifty (16842)

Technical Outlook

• The index began the session with a gap down (17100-17303) and further headed south leading to breach of last week lows and psychological mark of 17000. Selling pressure across heavyweights in second half led Nifty to settle near day’s low (and key support of 16800) resulting in strong bear candle indicating negative bias

• Going forward, a decisive close below key support of 16800 and 200 days EMA (placed at 16700) would lead to further acceleration of decline towards 16400-16300 as it is confluence of:

• a) December 2021 lows of 16410

• b) 52 weeks EMA placed at 16340

• c) Equality of current down leg from February high of 17794, with mid January decline (18350-16836) placed at 16300

• On the higher side 17100 is expected to act as immediate key resistance. The index needs to form a series of higher highlow on sustained basis for any meaningful pull back to materialize else extended corrective decline to continue. Key hurdle is placed at 17100 which is marked by

• a) Monday’s bearish gap area (17099-17303)

• b) 38.2% retracement of past three session decline (17639- 16809)

• The broader market indices have closed below their key supports and past six month lows indicating extended correction in coming sessions. We expect pull backs to be short lived in the short term.

In the coming session, index is likely to open on a positive note tracking flat Asian cues. The formation of lower high-low on daily chart signifies corrective bias amid elevated global volatility. Thus, after a positive opening use pullback towards 16972-17002 for creating short position for target of 17038

Nifty Bank: 36908

Technical Outlook

• The daily price action formed a sizable bear candle which closed below last week low (37319 ) signaling a corrective bias . The index need to start forming higher peak and higher trough on a sustained basis for any major technical pullback to materialize or else extended corrective decline .

• The escalated geopolitical tensions led to spike in crude oil prices and rise in Dollar index that resulted in global sell off in equity market . Going ahead a follow through weakness will lead to extension of decline towards January low and the psychological levels of 36000 in the coming weeks .

• On the higher side index has immediate hurdle is placed at 37800 levels being the confluence of the Monday’s high and the 38 . 2 % retracement of the last two sessions decline (39197 -36828 )

• Structurally, the index has already taken eight sessions to retrace just 80 % of its preceding six sessions up move (36375 -39424 ) . A shallow retracement highlights consolidation

• The index has support around 36000 levels being the confluence of the 200 days EMA currently placed at 36080 and the January low is also placed at 36375 levels

• In the coming session, index is likely to open on a positive note tracking flat Asian cues . The formation of lower high -low amid elevated global volatility signifies corrective bias . We suggest to use intraday pullback towards 37180 -37262 for creating short position for target of 36922 , maintain a stop loss at 37383

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