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Nifty: 16794

Technical Outlook

• The Nifty entirely recouped initial losses seen after a gap down opening (16658-16482) and closed near days high. As a result, daily price action formed a sizable bull candle with small lower shadow, highlighting elevated buying demand that emerged from 52 weeks EMA placed around 16400.

• As per change of polarity concept earlier support of 16800 is now acting as an immediate resistance for the Nifty over past three sessions. Going ahead, only a decisive close above 16800 along with cool off in VIX and crude oil prices will add fuel to the ongoing pullback rally towards 17200 as it is the 61.8% retracement of February decline (17795-16203), placed at 17186. Meanwhile, Monday’s low will be the key monitorable in coming sessions as breach below Monday’s low of 16356 on a closing basis would lead to extended correction towards 16200.

• Key point to highlight is that, time wise index has maintained the rhythm of not correcting for more than three consecutive weeks, since April 2020. In the current scenario, as the index has already corrected over past three weeks, we believe Nifty is poised for a technical pullback from the oversold territory. On the downside, 16200 will be the key level to watch, as it is a confluence of:

• A) Price parity of October – December decline (18604 -16410), projected from January high of 18350, at 16200

• B) current week’s panic low is placed at 16203

• The broader market indices performed in tandem with the benchmark indices. The Nifty midcap and small cap indices are hovering in the vicinity of key long term average of 52 weeks EMA. Thus, we expect broader market to relatively underperform the benchmark and undergo base formation amid ongoing global volatility In the coming session, index is likely to witness gap down opening tracking subdued global cues. Over past three sessions Nifty has been facing stiff resistance in the vicinity of 16800, highlighting immediate resistance at 16800. Thus post gap down opening, use pullback towards 16740-16770 should be used to create short position for target of 16653

Nifty Bank: 36205

Technical Outlook​​​​​​​

• The daily price action formed a bull candle with a long lower shadow, indicating consolidation amid higher volatility . Meanwhile, lower shadow signifies supportive efforts in the vicinity of 52 weeks EMA .

• Going ahead, volatility is expected to remain high tracking ongoing geopolitical concerns . Index holding above key support threshold of 35000 -34500 would keep pullback options open . Further, a decisive close above 37000 along with cool off in VIX and crude oil prices will lead to a pullback rally towards 38300 levels in the coming weeks being the confluence of the trendline resistance joining highs of October 2021 and February 2022 and the 80 % retracement of February decline (39424 -34991 )

• The index has support around 35000 -34500 levels being the confluence of the following :

• (a) 80 % retracement of the previous up move (34018 - 39424

• (b) lower band of the rising channel in place since last one year is placed around 35000 -34500 levels

• (c) the rising 52 weeks EMA is placed at 35500 levels

• Among the oscillators the weekly 14 periods RSI is seen forming a base around the neutral reading of 40 , signaling an impending pullback in coming weeks In the coming session, index is likely to open on a negative note amid weak Global cues . Volatility is likely to remain high on account of the volatile global cues . In today’s session we expect the index to witness selling pressure at pullback after a negative opening . Hence after a negative opening use pullback towards 36250 -36310 for creating short position for target of 35980 , maintain a stop loss at 36440

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