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Sensex (65721) / Nifty (19517)

During the last week, our markets started off strongly on Monday and it appeared as if the market is going to make one more attempt towards 20000. However, when things are least expected, the market tends to surprise us and unfortunately mostly in an unpleasant manner. On Tuesday, late in the evening, one of the reputed credit agencies ‘FITCH’ downgraded US credit ratings to AA+ which dented the recent positivity across the globe. We too succumbed to this global sell off and skidded like a bottomless pit in the first half of Wednesday as well as Thursday’s session. However, fortunately the oversold market rebounded from key supports on the last trading session of the week; courtesy to some cool off in the US bourses. Eventually, the week ended with restricted losses of nearly seven tenths of a percent from the previous weekly close.

The action-packed week ended with some respite as Nifty managed to reclaim the 19500 mark. The recovery was initially led by IT counters but later, the most affected space BFSI took it forward to bring some smile back among the market participants. Mind you, we are still not completely out of the woods yet. Technically speaking, the Nifty slipped and closed below the ’20-day EMA’ for the first time since March 31, 2023, and we are placed slightly below this. So, till the time, Nifty does not surpass 19550 – 19600 on a closing basis, one should avoid being complacent and ideally, it’s better to avoid aggressive trades.

Nifty Bank Outlook (44880)

The high beta index BankNifty started the week on a mild note and maintained its positive stance for the first two trading sessions. However, as we moved in mid-week, an intense bout of sell-off got triggered that shook the ongoing bullish momentum and dragged the index below the previous swing low. However, in the last trading session market tried to regain stability and recouped some of the lost ground on a weekly basis. Eventually, the Bank Nifty index concluded the week on a negative note, losing over 1.20 percent to settle around 44880 level.

Technically, the ongoing setup of higher lows has been challenged in the week went by, which might be an early sign for further correction. However, the confirmation is yet to happen, and one must not apprehend the recent development. On the technical charts, the index is hovering near the 50 percent of Fibonacci retracement of the rally seen from the June swing low.

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