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Nifty: 16345

Technical Outlook

* On expected lines, buying demand emerged from oversold territory amid across sector participation that helped index to pullback towards 52 weeks EMA placed at 16350. The Nifty started the session on a positive note and inched upward as intraday throwback remain short lived. As a result, the daily price action formed a sizable bull candle carrying higher highlow, indicating continuance of positive momentum. In today’s session index is opening gap up after sharp fall in crude oil prices which will trigger further boost to sentiments

* Key point to highlight since October 2021 is that, each major corrective phase subsequently got retraced by at least 50%. Taking cognizance of historical evidence, we expect the ongoing pullback to extend towards 50% retracement (placed around 16800) in a gradual manner. In the process, volatility would remain elevated ahead of Fed meeting amidst ongoing geopolitical concerns. Therefore, any dip from hereon should be used as buying opportunity to ride next leg of up move towards 16800 as it is confluence of:

* a) 50% retracement of February-March decline (17795-15671), at 16733

* b) as per change of polarity concept, earlier support of 16800 would now act as resistance

* c) 200 days EMA is placed at 16700

* On the downside, key support for the Nifty is placed at 15700 which we expect to hold amid ongoing global volatility as it is current week’s panic low of 15671

* The broader market indices extended pullback and approached in the vicinity of 200 days EMA. We expect, the Nifty midcap and small cap indices to prolong ongoing consolidation and form a base around 52 weeks EMA in coming weeks

In the coming session, index is likely to open gap up amid strong global cues. We expect it to continue with its last two sessions pullback, while maintaining a higher high-low. Hence after a positive opening use dips towards 16520-16552 for creating long position for target of 16638

Nifty Bank: 33815

Technical Outlook​​​​​​​

* The daily price action formed a sizable bull candle with a higher high -low highlighting positive follow through to previous session bullish piercing line candle . Index in today’s session is opening gap above Monday’s gap down area signalling continuation of the current pullback in the coming sessions

* Index on expected lines after sharp decline of almost 15 % in just two weeks has witnessed pullback in the last two sessions . Holding above Wednesday low (32948), the current pullback likely to extend towards last Friday’s high of 35100 levels which also confluence with the 38 . 2 % retracement of the recent major decline (39424 - 32155 )

* The index has immediate support around 32000 -32500 levels being the confluence of the following :

* (a) 80 % retracement of the previous major rally of April 2021 -October 2021 (30405 -41829 )

* (b) previous consolidation area of May 2021 is also placed around 32000 levels

* Among the oscillators the daily stochastic has rebounded from the oversold territory and has generated a buy signal moving above its three periods average thus supports the continuation of the current pullback in the index in the coming sessions

In the coming session, index is likely to open gap up amid sharp pullback in the global equity market . We expect index to maintain positive bias and continue with its last two sessions pullback . Hence after a positive opening use intraday dips towards 34220 -34300 for creating long position for target of 34560 , maintain a stop loss at 34110

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