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GST Monitor: Collections at INR1.46t in Nov’22…

…achieve ~76% of full-year target (FY23BE) over 8MFY23

* GST collections grew 11% YoY (but contracted ~4% MoM) to INR1.46t in Nov’22.

* With this, the government collected INR11.9t worth of GST during Apr-Nov’22, which was ~76% of FY23BE v/s INR9.4t collected during the corresponding months last year (reaching ~74% of FY22BE).

* CGST collections amounted to INR256.8b (up 7.1% YoY) and SGST collections stood at INR326.5b (up 4.9% YoY). Both these components recorded a slow-down in growth in Nov’22. Much of the growth in total GST collections was propelled by import collections rather than domestic activities. While GST collections on imports grew 20.1% YoY to INR386.4b, collections on domestic activities rose only 7.9% YoY to slightly more than INR1t in Nov’22.

* Interestingly, e-way bill generations in Oct’22 stood at 2.5m units/day, lesser than 2.8m units/day in Sep’22 (implying a one-off month); however, it was still at a decently high level.

* Overall, ~76% of full-year GST target was achieved in the first eight months of FY23 – the highest since inception. The government needs to receive ~INR0.92t of GST on an average over the next four months of FY23 to achieve its full-year goal. The continued high collection momentum suggests that the government might overshoot its GST collection target by roughly ~INR2.3t in FY23E. This will aid the government tremendously in its fiscal glide path.

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