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Sensex (65151) / Nifty (19365)

Once again, the US markets experienced a weak trading session overnight, and taking cues from there, the GIFT Nifty indicated a sluggish start. However, the actual beginning was relatively steady, opening on a neutral note. Nevertheless, prices swiftly declined thereafter, revisiting the low seen on Wednesday. In the latter part of the session, significant momentum was missing. Despite this, prices successfully held onto crucial support levels and concluded the session with a decline of around half a percent, settling at 19365.

From a technical perspective, there hasn't been a substantial shift. Prices persist in oscillating within a notably narrow range of 200 points. On the daily chart, the third consecutive candle has formed within the range of 19300 to 19500. Traders are opting for cautious positions on the index front, awaiting a catalyst for a momentum-driven movement. The aforementioned trading range is defined by two moving averages, with the 50 EMA defending prices at lower levels and the 20 EMA capping prices at higher levels. Given the intraday indicators indicating oversold conditions alongside positive divergence, we remain hopeful that the 19250 to 19300 zone will be upheld in the context of the weekly closure. However, a breach beneath this range could potentially trigger further weakness in the short term, directing prices towards levels around 19000 to 18925. Conversely, the range of 19500 to 19650 poses a significant resistance, requiring a breakthrough to reignite a broad-based rally.

Nifty Bank Outlook (43891)

The BANKNIFTY has been the weakest link of late and in-line with this, we witnessed a soft opening in tandem with benchmark. However, initially both key indices had divergent moves and surprisingly, the banking index was showing tremendous resilience this time, courtesy to some strength in the PSU banks. This helped the index surpass the important psychological level of 44000. However, in line with recent trends, maintaining these higher levels proved to be challenging. Fresh buying emerged around the intraday lows after a bout of profit-taking in the middle of the session, ultimately resulting in the index closing the day just below 43900 with a negligible loss.

Technically speaking, no significant alterations were observed on the weekly expiry session and the index continued to trade within a confined range. Currently, it is important to observe a decisive breakthrough above the range of 44000-44200, coinciding with the 89 EMA on the daily chart. Until this situation, the index is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with 43500-43700 serving as a cushion against any intraday fluctuations.

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