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Subscriber run-rate witnessing a recovery with the easing of COVID-related restrictions

RJio and Bharti continue to gain market share The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) released data for Jun’21.

Here are the key highlights:

* The industry subscriber base recovered from the impact of the second COVID wave, with the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Gross subscribers expanded by 4m, while the active subscriber base declined by 1.3m, reaching 1,181m/985m, respectively, as the industry witnessed consolidation of dual SIM cards. In May’21 the gross/active subscriber base saw a 6.3m/11.3m decline, impacted by the COVID-led lockdown.

* Bharti saw a partial recovery in its monthly gross/active subscribers in Jun’21, after declining in May’21. RJio’s subscriber base continued to grow, while the same for VIL fell.

* RJio saw an increase in monthly gross/active subscribers by 5.5m/2.4m (v/s 3.6m/2.8m additions in May’21) to 437m/340m, adding 30bp market share each. This could be attributed to tailwinds from offers to JioPhone customers. The pace of active subscriber additions slowed, compared to the 7.4m/3.5m active additions in Mar/Apr’21.

* Bharti saw gross/active subscriber additions of 3.8m/2.4m to 352m/344m (after witnessing a decline of 4.6m/5.7m in May’21), reaching steady state monthly additions of 3-4m in the last 9-10 months and maintaining active subscriber market share leadership at 34.9%. Its 4G subscriber base grew by 4.3m to 193.7m, after witnessing a 1.8m decline in May’21.

* The decline in VIL’s gross/active subscribers continued at 4.3m/4.9m to 273m/242m. The company saw no respite from the lockdown in Apr-May’21. Barring a couple of months, the same has consistently declined over the last 2-3 years. Its 4G subscriber base surprisingly grew by 1.8m and stood at 121.4m.

* Industry 4G subscriber base grew by 11.7m to reach 769m, with 4G subscribers accounting for 78% of active subscribers.

* RJio/Bharti saw steady gains at 5.5m/4.3m in Jun’21 v/s the lockdown impacted May’21 at -1.5m/3.6m additions. Additions of 1.8m for VIL look good after the fall in the preceding two months, but we will remain watchful to see if it is sustainable.

* Growth in industry wired broadband subscribers remained positive, with 0.8m additions to 23.5m v/s an average 0.3-0.4m in the last few months, but yet remains slow. RJio is continuing its steady 200k additions run-rate, while smaller players added 400k. Bharti added over 100k subscribers.

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