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RJio and Bharti’s active subscribers climb

Bharti continues to forge ahead in 4G space

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) released data for Nov’20. Here are the key highlights:

* Active subscribers saw strong growth as both RJio and Bharti added strong nos, even as VIL continued to lose subscribers.

* Industry gross subscribers increased by 3.4m MoM to 1.15b in Nov’20. Active subscribers increased by a strong 7.4m to 968m in Nov’20 (the strongest subscriber adds in the past 13 months) – as economic activity potentially picks up.

* Bharti added strong 4.4m/3.9m gross and active subscribers to 335m/323m in Nov’20. The quality of Bharti’s subscribers is reflected in its strong 4G subscriber adds of 4.2m (v/s RJio’s adds of 1.9m) – it accounts for 63% incremental subscriber market share.

* RJio’s monthly gross/4G subscriber adds have slowed to 1.9m over the past four months – 2.2m adds in Oct’20 v/s an average ~7m in the last fiscal. However, its active subscriber adds have rebounded sharply to 5.4m, far ahead of gross adds.

* VIL’s losing streak in gross/active subscribers continued, with 2.9m/1.9m subscriber losses in Nov’20 (v/s loss of 2.2m/1.2m in Oct’20).

* Industry 4G subscriber adds slowed to 6.9m to reach 720m (v/s 8.1m in Oct’20), with MBB subscribers now accounting for 74.3% (+10bp MoM) of active subscribers.

* Bharti continued its healthy streak – of outpacing peers for the past six months – with 4.2m adds (65% incremental share) v/s RJio’s 4G adds that slowed to 1.9m (v/s ~7m in the last fiscal). VIL added merely 0.5m subscribers. Bharti’s 4G market share increased 40bp MoM to 23.9%, while 4G share for VIL/RJio dropped 10bps/30bp MoM to 16.8%/56.7%.

* Industry Wired Broadband subscriber adds stood at 380k, of which RJio added 170k, while Bharti added 60k subscribers.

Active subscriber base sees sharp jump

The Telecom industry added 3.4m gross subscribers in Nov’20 to reach a subscriber base of 1.15b (v/s just 3.2m adds in Oct’20). Continuing the trend, Bharti has added higher gross and 4G subscribers v/s RJio in the past four months. An increase in the gross subscriber base for Bharti/RJio stood at 4.4m/1.9m in Nov’20 (v/s 3.7m/ 2.2m adds in Oct’20). VIL, on the other hand, lost 2.9m subscribers in Nov’20 (loss of 29m gross subscribers since April’20). The industry has cumulatively lost 5.5m gross subscribers since the implementation of the nationwide lockdown in Mar’20

The active subscriber base saw a sharp increase of 7.5m to 968m in Nov’20 – the highest in 13 months – after adding 2.5m subscribers in Oct’20 (still 21m below the peak since March’20). This was largely attributable to the uptick seen in economic activity. However, Bharti continued to report strong active subscriber adds with 3.9m, and RJio added a modest 5.4m subs in Nov’20.

Bharti adds strong active subs, but slips to second spot

Bharti continued the momentum with a strong 3.9m active subscriber adds (v/s 3m adds in Oct’20), reaching 323m subs in Nov’20. With this, Bharti slipped from its top position to having 33.4% share (+10bps MoM) in active SMS. Overall, Bharti has added a total of 8.1m active subscribers since Mar’20.

Bharti has added 4.4m gross subscribers (v/s 3.7m additions in Oct’20 and 6.8m cumulative adds since Mar’20) to reach 335m. The quality of Bharti’s subscribers is reflected in its strong MBB subscriber adds of 4.2m (v/s RJio’s adds of 1.9m) – it accounts for 64% incremental subscriber market share.

RJio regains top spot in active

SMS RJio added 1.9m gross subscribers (v/s 2.2m adds in Oct’20), reaching 408m in Nov’20. Subsequently, gross SMS stood at 35.3% (flat MoM); it continues to retain the top spot with 35.3% market share. RJio’s monthly gross/MBB subscriber adds have slowed to a run-rate of ~2m over the past four months, with 1.9m adds in Nov’20 (v/s an average ~7m in the last fiscal). However, active subscriber adds were much stronger than gross subscribers at 5.4m (after gaining 1.1m in Oct’20) – they reached 325m in Nov’20. With this, RJio gained the top spot with 33.5% share in active SMS (marginally leading Bharti by 10bps).

VIL continues to witness subscriber churn

VIL continued to lose subscribers – decline of 2.9m/1.9m in gross/active subscribers to 290m/258m in Nov’20 (v/s 2.7m/1.2m loss in Oct’20). Its market share fell 30bp/50bp MoM to 25.1%/26.6% in both gross/active subscribers in Nov’20. In our view, VIL’s continued loss of subscribers is attributable to its weak network capabilities and declining quality of network as well as speculation around business continuity. This has led to subscribers switching to other networks

Broadband subs data – MBB subscriber adds remain slow

* No. of industry MBB subscribers grew by 7m: Industry MBB subscriber additions slowed to 7m (v/s 8.1m adds in Oct’20), reaching 720m in Nov’20. MBB subscribers – whose count has been rising continuously from 64% since Oct’19 – now account for 74.3% (+10bp MoM) of the total number of active subscribers in the market. Subscriber adds were led by Bharti/RJio’s gains of 4.2m/1.9m; VIL added a meager 0.5m in Nov’20.

* Bharti – market share inched up 40bp: Bharti continued its trend of healthy additions, outpacing peers with 4.2m adds – v/s RJio’s slowing 4G adds of 1.9m. Bharti’s MBB SMS increased 40bp MoM to 23.9%, with incremental MBB market share of 64% in Nov’20.

* RJio – market share fell marginally: RJio clocked 1.9m MBB subscribers (v/s ~7m in the last fiscal), reaching a subscriber base of 408m. Its market share slipped marginally by 30bp to 56.7% (continuously declining from 59% in April’20).

* VIL’s subscriber base remained steady: VIL added just 0.5m MBB subscribers in Nov’20, taking the total subscriber base to 121m (it has added 3.5m MBB subscribers since Mar’20). Its market share edged down further by 10bp to 16.8%.

* Wired Broadband market remained steady at 21.9m subscribers: Industry Wired Broadband subscriber adds stood at 380k, of which RJio and smaller regional peers added 170k each, and Bharti added 60k subscribers. BSNL’s total wired broadband subscribers stood at 7.7m, and Bharti/RJio’s wired broadband subscribers stood at 2.7m/1.9m in Nov’20. BSNL remained the leader with market share of 35.3%, while Bharti/RJio ranked in the second/third position with market share of 12.5%/8.5% in Nov’20.

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