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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.4% at 59552 as dollar index held above 100, as investors assess the outlook for monetary policy. The latest data showed weekly claims fell to a two-month low, indicating robust demand for workers; while continuing claims rose the most in over three months. The dollar reached an over 1-year low below 99.6 due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 bps for the last time this year during its upcoming meeting next week, thanks to the easing inflation. Gold continues to play an active role in central banks' foreign reserves, according to updated data from the International Monetary Fund, highlighted by the World Gold Council. Latest IMF data shows that Qatar Central Bank increased its official gold reserves by 1.6 tonnes in June, the first increase since October 2022. Its total gold reserves now stand at 93.4 tonnes. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps this month, possibly indicating the conclusion of their tightening measures. The euro moved away from a 17-month low against the USD to $1.122 after dovish comments from some ECB officials. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.11% to settle at 7286 while prices are down -238 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59346 and below same could see a test of 59140 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59871, a move above could see prices testing 60190.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59140-60190.
* Gold dropped as investors assess the outlook for monetary policy.
* The latest data showed weekly claims fell to a two-month low, indicating robust demand for workers
* Gold continues to play an active role in central banks' foreign reserves – WGC

Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -1.26% at 75449 as the dollar strengthened in the backdrop of a surge in treasury yields and fears of renewed inflationary pressures on the commodity front, following Russia's exit from the Black Sea grain deal. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 from the prior week to 228,000 on the week ending July 15th, the lowest in two months, and sharply below market expectations of 242,000. The result further underscored the stubborn tightness in the US labor market, consolidating Federal Reserve officials' calls for another 25bps rate hike in its upcoming meeting. The Fed will decide on monetary policy next week, with a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate fully priced in, although investors remain divided on the need for further increases. The chances for another quarter point rise currently stand at 17% for September and 30% for November, compared to 12% and 23% respectively the day before. Existing home sales in the US, which include completed transactions of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 3.3% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.16 million units in June of 2023, the lowest level in five months, and compared to forecasts of 4.2 million. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.2% to settle at 18742 while prices are down -960 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 74876 and below same could see a test of 74304 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 76347, a move above could see prices testing 77246.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 74304-77246.
* Silver fell as dollar strengthened amid fears of renewed inflationary pressures
* The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose for the first time in four days to 3.82%
* The Fed will decide on monetary policy next week, with a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate fully priced in
 

Crude oil 

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.08% at 6211 amidst official data from U.S. that showed a decline in crude oil inventories and fears of declining supplies from Russia. U.S. crude inventories fell last week, supported by a jump in crude exports as well as higher refinery utilization, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Sales of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) ended in the last week of June, tightening the market for crude oil globally. Crude inventories fell by 708,000 barrels in the last week to 457.4 million barrels, compared with expectations for a drop of 2.4 million barrels, the EIA data showed. China's imports of crude oil from Russia hit an all-time high in June, Chinese government data showed, with refiners continuing to snap up discounted Russian ESPO even as discounts against international benchmarks narrow. Arrivals from Russia totalled 10.50 million metric tons in June, or 2.56 million barrels per day (bpd), according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Shipments from Saudi Arabia, which has in recent months been China's second largest crude supplier, totalled 7.92 million metric tons last month, equivalent to 1.93 million bpd. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.63% to settle at 6665 while prices are up 5 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6140 and below same could see a test of 6069 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6268, a move above could see prices testing 6325.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6069-6325.
* Crude oil gains amidst decline in inventories and declining supplies from Russia.
* U.S. crude inventories fell last week, supported by a jump in crude exports as well as higher refinery utilization.
* Crude inventories fell by 708,000 barrels in the last week to 457.4 million barrels.
 

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 4.88% at 225.8 on a daily drop in output, forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected and hotter-than-normal weather through early August, especially in Texas. That price increase came ahead of a federal report expected to show last week's storage build was bigger-than-usual for this time of year due in part to slow growth in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Additionally, the latest EIA report showed U.S. utilities added 41 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage last week, less than forecasts of a 48 bcf injection. Also, despite gas output still rising in July compared to the previous month, it has been declining in the past two days. Meanwhile, gas flow to US LNG export plants remains below the April record level of 14.0 bcfd due to ongoing maintenance at several facilities in Louisiana. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 101.8 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter-than-normal through at least Aug. 4. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -42.77% to settle at 9878 while prices are up 10.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 216.4 and below same could see a test of 206.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 235, a move above could see prices testing 244.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 206.9-244.1.
* Natural gas climbed on a daily drop in output
* Support also seen amid forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected and hotter-than-normal weather through early August
* The latest EIA report showed U.S. utilities added 41 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage last week

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.07% at 729.95 amid persistent supply concerns, while markets continued to monitor signals from China’s government on any stimulus measures. Copper output in top producer Chile sank 14% annually in May, among the latest signs that declines in global supply foreshadow an incoming shortfall amid the metal’s essential use in the world’s transition to sustainable energy sources. The data raised concerns that production in Chile may fall by more than Codelco’s forecast of 7%, extending the plunge from 2022. In the meantime, a slower-than-expected GDP growth in China extended demand concerns from the world’s top consumer, adding to investors’ bets on incoming stimulus from the country’s government. Global miner Anglo American said its first-half copper production surged 42%, underpinned by the ramp-up of its Quellaveco mine operations in Peru. Copper production rose to 387,200 metric tons in the first half from 273,400 metric tons a year before, it said. An increase in copper demand for applications from solar panels to electric cars is set to steepen sharply in coming years as the world moves toward green energy and electrification. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -39.12% to settle at 2037 while prices are up 7.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 722.7 and below same could see a test of 715.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 738.6, a move above could see prices testing 747.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 715.3-747.1.
* Copper gains amid persistent supply concerns
* Markets continued to monitor signals from China’s government on any stimulus measures.
* The data raised concerns that production in Chile may fall by more than Codelco’s forecast of 7%

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 213.05 on growing hopes that China would introduce additional support for its troubled real estate sector. Further supporting metals prices, the yuan strengthened after Beijing tweaked cross-border financing rules. Chinese authorities are considering easing restrictions on home purchases in the nation's biggest cities. Chinese officials had previously pledged several support policies to help with economic growth, but those failed to underpin metals prices as the stimulus measures were targeted and limited in scale. BofA Global Research cut China's economic growth forecast for this year to 5.1%, from 5.7% previously, after the world's second-biggest economy grew at a frail pace in the second quarter. Daily LME data showed that inventories in the exchange-registered warehouses rose by 15% to 80,375 tonnes, the highest in nearly three weeks. China’s output reached 3.23 million mt in H1, a year-on-year increase of 8.59%. Data showed that the domestic refined zinc output stood at 552,500 mt in June, down 2.13% MoM and 13.1% YoY. In June, the reduction of domestic smelters was mainly concentrated in Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan and other places, and the overall impact was less than expected. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.95% to settle at 2320 while prices are up 0.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 211.6 and below same could see a test of 210.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 214.8, a move above could see prices testing 216.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 210.2-216.6.
* Zinc gains on growing hopes that China would introduce additional support.
* Further supporting metals prices, the yuan strengthened after Beijing tweaked cross-border financing rules.
* Chinese authorities are considering easing restrictions on home purchases in the nation's biggest cities

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 196.1 as smelters started to resume production in the southwestern Yunnan province after curbs on local power usage were eased. China's aluminium imports in the first half of 2023 rose 10.7% from a year earlier, customs data showed, with domestic supplies constrained by power woes and demand expectations. The world's biggest aluminium producer and consumer imported 1.2 million metric tons of unwrought aluminium and products -including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium – from January to June, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. June imports totalled 211,235 metric tons, 12.8% higher than the 187,362 metric tons imported in the same month of 2022, also up from the 191,701 tonnes in May. Domestic production growth was limited this year, largely due to the hydro-power shortage in the southwestern Yunnan province. China's aluminium production rose 2.9% to 3.46 million metric tons in June versus a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. For the first half this year, China produced 20.16 million metric tons, up 3.4% from the same period last year, the data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.66% to settle at 2431 while prices are down -0.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 195.4 and below same could see a test of 194.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197.3, a move above could see prices testing 198.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 194.6-198.4.
* Aluminium dropped as smelters started to resume production in Yunnan
* China's aluminium imports rise 10.7% y/y in H1
* China June aluminium output 3.46 mln metric tons
 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.82% at 872.6 due to reports of improved crop progress. Yield is likely to increase due to favorable weather condition in major producing states. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 1026.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.66% to settle at 517 while prices are down -7.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 868.7 and below same could see a test of 864.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 878.2, a move above could see prices testing 883.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 864.7-883.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 1026.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil dropped due to reports of improved crop progress.
* Yield is likely to increase due to favorable weather condition in major producing states.
* Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices.

Turmeric 
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.65% at 13152 driven by consistent demand from the domestic market and export. Moreover, farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage and also lower ending stocks, resulting in a supply shortage in the cash markets. The kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 17,138.35 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 15.69%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 11882.8 Rupees gained 408.45 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.08% to settle at while prices are up 340 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 12768 and below same could see a test of 12384 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13534, a move above could see prices testing 13916.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12384-13916.
* Turmeric rose driven by consistent demand from the domestic market and export.
* Farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage
* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 11882.8 Rupees gained 408.45 Rupees.

Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.59% at 60910 as arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan have decreased due to heavy rainfall. Farmers need assistance to bring their produce to the market. However, after the rains subside, cumin arrivals are expected to increase, potentially impacting market dynamics. Support also seen due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 294.35 Rupees to end at 60384.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.98% to settle at while prices are up 1540 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 59960 and below same could see a test of 59015 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61495, a move above could see prices testing 62085.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 59015-62085.
* Jeera rose as arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan decreased due to heavy rainfall.
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 294.35 Rupees to end at 60384.4 Rupees per 100 kg.

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