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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 45021 as the dollar shed some ground after moving higher and yields on long-term bonds stabilized a bit. U.S. bond yields edged off the 14-month highs reached the day before in reaction to the Fed's decision to allow inflation to accelerate more than normal. The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back after economic data proved to be a mixed bag. Physical gold demand was subdued in India as a rebound in domestic prices kept consumers away, while activity in other top hubs also remained lacklustre. Dealers were charging a premium of up to $6 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, unchanged from last week. Switzerland in February sent gold to mainland China for the first time since September and shipments to India and Thailand rose to multi-year highs, suggesting that demand for bullion in Asia is recovering from the coronavirus shock. Switzerland is the world's biggest gold refining centre and transit hub, while India and China are the two biggest gold consumers and Thailand is a regional trade hub. Demand from all three Asian countries plunged last year as the coronavirus spread and has been slowest to recover in China. One reason for the pick-up is a steady decline in gold prices from record highs last August. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.77% to settled at 8165 while prices up 70 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44835 and below same could see a test of 44650 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45171, a move above could see prices testing 45322.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 44650-45322.

* Gold prices moved higher as the dollar shed some ground after moving higher and yields on long-term bonds stabilized a bit.

* U.S. bond yields edged off the 14-month highs reached the day before in reaction to the Fed's decision to allow inflation to accelerate more than normal.

* Asian gold demand rebounding as Swiss exports to India surge

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 67527 after the first high-level U.S.-China meeting of the Biden administration got off to a fiery start, with both sides leveling sharp rebukes of the others' policies. The U.S. Federal Reserve repeated its pledge to keep its target interest rate near zero and said it expects higher economic growth and inflation this year. Data from the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased in the week ended March 13th. The report said initial jobless claims climbed to 770,000, an increase of 45,000 from the previous week's revised level of 725,000. The Bank of Japan decided to widen the range at which it permits the yields of government bonds to fluctuate and scrapped the average exchange traded fund buying target. The board, governed by Haruhiko Kuroda, voted 8-1 to maintain the interest rate at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the central bank. Also, the central bank decided to continue to purchase necessary amount of Japanese government bonds without setting an upper limit so that 10-year JGB yields will remain at around zero percent. However, the bank said it will allow the range of 10-year JGB yields to fluctuate between plus and minus 0.25 percent from the target level. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.91% to settled at 11410 while prices down -220 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67123 and below same could see a test of 66718 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67838, a move above could see prices testing 68148.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 66718-68148.

* Silver prices seen some pressure after the first high-level U.S.-China meeting of the Biden administration got off to a fiery start

*  Fed repeated its pledge to keep its target interest rate near zero and said it expects higher economic growth and inflation this year.

*  Data from the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased

Crude oil      

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.13% at 4459 as a new wave of COVID-19 infections wash across Europe, spurring new lockdowns and dampening hopes for a recovery in demand for fuels anytime soon. U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to decline by about 46,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April to about 7.46 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a monthly forecast. Output at nearly every formation is expected to fall and the biggest declines are expected to come from the Eagle Ford and Niobrara basins, where production is expected to drop by about 15,000 bpd in each basin compared with March, the data showed. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose in January for a seventh straight month to the highest since April 2020, according to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) website. Crude exports from the world's biggest oil exporter rose to 6.582 million barrels per day (bpd) in January from December's 6.495 million bpd. Russia's crude oil exports and transit volumes via the Transneft pipeline system are set to decline to 60.9 million tonnes in the second quarter, from 62.1 million tonnes in the January-March period, according to the quarterly schedule. Russia plans to decrease its oil exports in the second quarter despite an OPEC+ decision to allow the country an additional output hike in April. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 24.85% to settled at 2829 while prices down -6 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4345 and below same could see a test of 4232 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4535, a move above could see prices testing 4612.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4232-4612.

* Crude oil prices dropped as a new wave of COVID-19 infections wash across Europe, spurring new lockdowns and dampening hopes for a recovery in demand

* U.S. shale oil output to drop 46,000 bpd to 7.46 mln bpd in April -EIA

* Saudi's January crude exports hit highest in nine months

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.32% at 183.8 on record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts calling for cooler weather next week than previously expected. Prices have been under pressure in recent weeks as falling demand and rising output reduce weekly storage withdrawals. U.S. natural gas production will edge up in 2021, while demand declines for a second year in a row as economic fallout from coronavirus lockdowns continue to plague the market, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 91.35 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 and 92.83 bcfd in 2022 from 91.34 bcfd in 2020. That compares with an all-time high of 93.06 bcfd in 2019. It also projected gas consumption would fall to 82.52 bcfd in 2021 and 81.60 bcfd in 2022 from 83.25 bcfd in 2020. That compares with a record high of 85.15 bcfd in 2019. If the outlook is correct, 2021 would mark the first time consumption falls for two consecutive years since 2006, and 2022 would be the first time it falls for three years since 1983. EIA’s projections for 2021 in March were higher than its February forecasts of 90.50 bcfd for supply and 81.71 bcfd for demand. tonnes in 2022 as power generators burn more coal. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.73% to settled at 8038 while prices up 2.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 180.1 and below same could see a test of 176.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 185.8, a move above could see prices testing 187.8. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 176.4-187.8.

* Natural gas rose on record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts calling for cooler weather next week than previously expected.

* Prices have been under pressure in recent weeks as falling demand and rising output reduce weekly storage withdrawals

* U.S. natural gas production will edge up in 2021, while demand declines for a second year in a row 

Copper      

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 675.2 as talks between the U.S. and China got off to a rough start, with both sides chiding and reprimanding each other in an unusual public display of tensions. Rising Treasury yields and falling stock markets pushed the dollar higher, as investors continued to digest the U.S. Federal Reserve's pushback against expectations of any early interest-rate hikes. The U.S. Fed dampened a speculation that it would wind back stimulus despite an expected surge of inflation and the U.S. economy heading for its strongest growth in nearly 40 years. The number of initial jobless claims in the US rose unexpectedly to 770,000 last week, reaching the highest level in a month. Investors were worried about the sustained recovery of the job market. In addition, worries about the pandemic resurfaced, and some large European economies re-implemented the blockade, which aggravated the uncertainty of demand prospects. Data showed that the stocks rose 5,900 mt from the prior week to 377,800 mt as of Friday March 19. The recovery of domestic consumption was not as expected and the price difference between refined copper and copper scrap stood at over 2,000 yuan/mt. which made it hard to boost the domestic demand for customs declaration and import. Yangshan copper premium continued to decline, and some cargoes flowed into the bonded warehouse one after another, which led to the increase in inventories in the bonded area this week. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.32% to settled at 2310 while prices up 0.15 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 664.4 and below same could see a test of 653.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 681.4, a move above could see prices testing 687.4.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 653.4-687.4.

* Copper prices settled flat as talks between the U.S. and China got off to a rough start, with both sides chiding and reprimanding each other.

* The number of initial jobless claims in the US rose unexpectedly to 770,000 last week, reaching the highest level in a month.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 9.1 percent from last Friday, the exchange said

Zinc​​​​​​​      

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.41% at 219.5 amid expectations of tighter zinc ingot supply. Pressure also seen affected by factors such as the slowdown of vaccination in Europe and the strengthening of the US dollar, US initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased last week. The uncertainty of China-US relations still existed with the fact that the end-user consumption did not fully recover, and the high prices of zinc ingot and steel inhibited the order increment of downstream galvanised enterprises. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 3,800 mt in the week ended March 19 to 259,500 mt. The stocks fell 5,900 mt from Monday March 15. Stocks in Shanghai increased slightly due to continuous arrivals at smelters and the inflow of import zinc. In south China's Guangdong, with the decrease of zinc prices, the downstream procurement volume gradually enlarged, which led to the decrease in stocks. Stocks in Tianjin fell slightly as the goods were picked up one after another after the downstream purchase. Stocks across the three major trading hubs (Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong) fell 12,300 mt this week, after a 5,800 mt increase last week. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.18% to settled at 1627 while prices up 3.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 216.5 and below same could see a test of 213.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 221.5, a move above could see prices testing 223.3.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 213.3-223.3.

* Zinc prices gained amid expectations of tighter zinc ingot supply.

* Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin decreased 3,800 mt to 259,500 mt.

* The uncertainty of China-US relations still existed with the fact that the end-user consumption did not fully recover

Nickel​​​​​​​      

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.78% at 1168.6 as the global nickel market surplus shrank to 8,400 tonnes in January from a revised surplus of 14,700 tonnes in the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Last year, the roughly 2.4 million tonne a year global market saw a surplus of 122,800 tonnes compared with a deficit of 32,200 tonnes in 2019, according to the Lisbon-based INSG. Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 232,000 wmt from March 12 to 6.33 million wmt as of March 19, showed data. In Ni content, the stocks fell 6,100 mt to 49,900 mt. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports decreased 1,800 wmt during the same period to 5.39 million wmt. Among them, stocks at Lanshan Port fell the most, down 170,000 mt to 730,000 mt. The market quotations of battery-grade nickel sulphate was slightly lowered to 35,000-36,000 yuan/mt. The cost of dissolving nickel beans into nickel sulphate was more effective at 28,000-30,000 yuan/mt. However, the dissolution capacity was limited, and the supply of nickel sulphate was tight, which had slowed down the fall in spot prices. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.81% to settled at 1750 while prices up 9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1151.6 and below same could see a test of 1134.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1179.4, a move above could see prices testing 1190.1.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1134.5-1190.1.

* Nickel prices gained as the global nickel market surplus shrank to 8,400 tonnes in January from a revised surplus of 14,700 tonnes in the previous month.

* Last year, the roughly 2.4 million tonne a year global market saw a surplus of 122,800 tonnes compared with a deficit of 32,200 tonnes in 2019

* Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 232,000 wmt from March 12 to 6.33 million wmt as of March 19, showed data.

Aluminium​​​​​​​      

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.23% at 177.6 as Energy consumption restrictions in Inner Mongolia will reduce local aluminium supply. High aluminium prices encouraged resumption of some smelters and inflow of overseas aluminium ingots, but also curbed downstream demand. Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, expanded 22,000 mt from the prior week to 1.25 million mt as of March 18. Stocks in Nanhai and Wuxi grew slower this week, while stocks in Gongyi declined. Data showed that stocks of aluminium billet across the five major consumption areas – Foshan, Wuxi, Huzhou, Changzhou and Nanchang – in China dropped 3,900 mt from the previous week to 232,900 mt as of March 18. Cancelled warrants for LME aluminium – metals earmarked for delivery – rose to their highest since February 2020 at 382,325 tonnes. China's aluminium imports in the first two months of 2021 rose 150.7% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as overseas metal booked at favourable prices continued to flow into the world's biggest aluminium market. The uncertainty of China-US relations still existed with the strong fear of end-user consumption for high prices, social inventories of aluminium ingots posted slower increase. The number of initial jobless claims in the US rose unexpectedly to 770,000 last week, reaching the highest level in a month. Investors were worried about the sustained recovery of the job market. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.7% to settled at 1259 while prices up 2.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 174.9 and below same could see a test of 172.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 179.2, a move above could see prices testing 180.7.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 172.1-180.7.

* Aluminium prices gained as Energy consumption restrictions in Inner Mongolia will reduce local aluminium supply.

* Cancelled warrants for LME aluminium – metals earmarked for delivery – rose to their highest since February 2020 at 382,325 tonnes.

* China's aluminium imports in the first two months of 2021 rose 150.7% from a year earlier, customs data showed.

Mentha oil​​​​​​​      

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.12% at 951.6 amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1070.3 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.27% to settled at 43 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 949.8 and below same could see a test of 948.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 953.6, a move above could see prices testing 955.7.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 948.1-955.7.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1070.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean      

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.61% at 5400 as support seen after China's soybean imports are forecast to reach a record 100 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 21/22 and an estimated 99 MMT in MY20/21 to meet feed demand from the livestock and poultry sectors. However upside seen limited amid improved crop weather in South America and expectations for large U.S. planting increases this spring weighed on the market. Rains in Argentina's drought-hit regions are weighing on prices. However, the country's main farm area will receive little rain for the rest of this month, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said, after significant rainfall in recent days slowed the loss of crops caused by months of unusually hot, dry weather. MY21/22 soybean production is forecast essentially flat at 18.6 MMT based on stable acreage and minimal yield growth. Demand for oilseeds, meal, and oil is projected to maintain a moderate growth trend on robust consumer demand for animal protein, vegetable oil, and soy-based foods. Chinese imports have been surprisingly high as China's economy continues growing strongly and the nation rebuilds its hog herd from massive African swine fever losses, resulting in a surge of mostly corn and soybean imports. Pressure also seen as slowing export sales as global demand shifts to South American supplies and as U.S. farmers prepare to dramatically increase plantings of the oilseed this spring. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5532 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.68% to settled at 135930 while prices up 33 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5276 and below same could see a test of 5152 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5467, a move above could see prices testing 5534.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5152-5534.

* Soyabean prices gained as support seen after China's soybean imports are forecast to reach a record 100 million metric tons

* However upside seen limited amid improved crop weather in South America and expectations for large U.S. planting increases this spring

* The impact of the increasing African swine fever has helped to reduce the demand for soybean

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5532 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil​​​​​​​      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.58% at 1251.3 on short covering due to tightening global supplies. However upside seen limited due to better crop weather in drought-hit South America. Further, rains in parts of parched Argentina boosted hopes of supplies from the world's biggest exporter of soyoil. The U.S. soybean crush was well below trade expectations in February, sinking to the lowest in 17 months, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 155.158 million bushels of soybeans last month, the lowest for a single month since September 2019. The crush was down from 184.654 million bushels in January and 166.288 million bushels in February 2020. Although it was the second-largest February crush on record, behind only February 2020, the crush came in below trade expectations as severe winter weather likely limited the processing pace at times during the month. NOPA said soyoil supplies among its members at the end of February dipped slightly to 1.757 billion lbs, from 1.799 billion lbs at the end of January and 1.922 billion lbs at the end of February 2020. Iran's state purchasing agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) has issued international tenders for the purchase of 30,000 tonnes of soyoil, 30,000 tonnes of sunflower oil and 30,000 tonnes of palm olein oil. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1245.8 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.38% to settled at 55055 while prices up 19.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1226 and below same could see a test of 1199 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1267, a move above could see prices testing 1281.           

Trading Ideas:            

*  Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1199-1281.

* Soyoil prices ended with gains on short covering due to tightening global supplies.

*  However upside seen limited due to better crop weather in drought-hit South America.

* The U.S. soybean crush was well below trade expectations in February, sinking to the lowest in 17 months

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1245.8 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 2.12% at 1118.7 as tight inventories and strength in rival soyoil underpinned the market. Palm oil supply is tight as end-February inventories fell more than expected while production declined to its lowest in five yearsTraders are anticipating a double-digit growth in production after industry groups forecast a sharp rise in output during March 1-15. Malaysia has kept its April export duty for crude palm oil at 8%, though it raised the reference price, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. Exports of palm oil from the world's top producer Indonesia rose nearly 20% on annual basis in January, the country's biggest palm group said, but output was disrupted by flood and stock fell to a six-month low. Indonesia exported 2.86 million tonnes of palm oil and its products in January, up 19.6% from the same month last year, data from the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed. On a monthly basis, however, shipments dropped 18% amid lower demand from China, Malaysia and India compared to December, GAPKI said in the statement. Meanwhile, in January, Indonesia produced 3.76 million tonnes of crude palm oil and kernel oil, down from 4.04 million tonnes in December and was the lowest monthly output since May. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -15 Rupees to end at 1124.3 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.2% to settled at 3625 while prices up 23.2 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1092.5 and below same could see a test of 1066.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1132.6, a move above could see prices testing 1146.4.    

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1066.2-1146.4.

* Crude palm oil prices gained as tight inventories and strength in rival soyoil underpinned the market.

* Palm oil supply is tight as end-February inventories fell more than expected while production declined to its lowest in five years

* Malaysia has kept its April export duty for crude palm oil at 8%, though it raised the reference price, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -15 Rupees to end at 1124.3 Rupees.

Mustard Seed​​​​​​​      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.02% at 5538 as the arrival of mustard in the entire country has increased from 10.55 lakh bags to 10.75 lakh bags. Pressure also seen due to projections of a record harvest, with the harvest season just about starting. However downside seen limited as support seen as fewer carry-forward stocks this year resulted in higher prices. Currently, market prices are ruling higher by over a tenth above the MSP of ₹ 4,650 per quintal across various markets in Rajasthan. Arrivals have begun in other growing States such as Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat and the trade sources expect some moderation in the price trend when the arrivals peak next month. Mustard production, according to the second advance estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, is seen at 10.43 million tonnes against last year’s 9.12 million tonnes, an increase of 14 per cent. The trade estimates the crop between 8.5 and 9 million tonnes, higher than the last year’s 7.5 million tonnes. Mustard acreage in 2020-21 rabi season was higher by about five lakh hectares at nearly 74 lakh hectares, with almost all major producing states reporting an increase in area. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5471 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.05% to settled at 47200 while prices down -57 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5466 and below same could see a test of 5394 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5595, a move above could see prices testing 5652.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5394-5652.

* Mustard seed dropped as the arrival of mustard in the entire country has increased from 10.55 lakh bags to 10.75 lakh bags.

* Pressure also seen due to projections of a record harvest, with the harvest season just about starting.

* However downside seen limited as support seen as fewer carry-forward stocks this year resulted in higher prices.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5471 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric    

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.98% at 8108 as demand declined at higher levels and arrivals increased in Nizamabad and Erode. In Nizamabad Mandi, there has been no change in the prices of all varieties of turmeric and 25,000 bags of turmeric were arrived compare to 20,000 bags in the previous season. Around 32,000 bags have arrived in Sangli Mandi against the arrival of 30,000 bags in the previous season. Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and arrivals of new goods in the month of February. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7876.3 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.25% to settled at 8315 while prices down -80 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7924 and below same could see a test of 7742 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8254, a move above could see prices testing 8402.    

Trading Ideas:            

*  Turmeric trading range for the day is 7742-8402.

* Turmeric prices declined as demand declined at higher levels and arrivals increased in Nizamabad and Erode.

* Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected.

*  Around 25,000 bags of turmeric were arrived compare to 20,000 bags in the previous season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7876.3 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera       

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.03% at 14795 as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. However upside seen limited as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content. In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot as compared to 7,000 bags in the previous session. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 14142.85 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.64% to settled at 4281 while prices up 5 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14720 and below same could see a test of 14645 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14850, a move above could see prices testing 14905.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14645-14905.

* Jeera settled flat as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. 

* However upside seen limited as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying 

* In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived as compared to 7,000 bags

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 14142.85 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton      

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.37% at 21610 as arrivals have been higher and record carryover stocks from last season. While CAI has pegged the carryover stocks at 115 lakh bales, the CCPC has estimated it at 97.95 lakh bales. Cotton farmers in the country have taken advantage of higher global price for the natural fibre this season (October 2020-September 2021), resulting in at least 80 per cent of the production being sold till now. As a result, most of the ginning mills in north and western parts of the country that process kapas (raw cotton) into ginned cotton are likely to shut operations from April this year. Most of the cotton produced this season have arrived across various markets in the country mainly since prices have ruled higher than the minimum support price (MSP) of ₹5,515 a quintal since the beginning of the October. According to an estimate by the Cotton Association of India, a body of traders, arrivals till February 28 this year since October 1 were 298.89 lakh bales (of 170 kg). The arrivals are against CAI’s projection of the cotton crop production at 358.50 lakh bales against 360 lakh bales last season. The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (CCPC), a body representing all stakeholders in the textile industry including government officials, has estimated this season’s crop at 371 lakh bales (358.50 lakh bales last season). In spot market, Cotton dropped by -40 Rupees to end at 22030 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.74% to settled at 4968 while prices down -300 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21460 and below same could see a test of 21300 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21880, a move above could see prices testing 22140.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21300-22140.

* Cotton prices dropped as arrivals have been higher and record carryover stocks from last season.

* CAI has pegged the carryover stocks at 115 lakh bales, the CCPC has estimated it at 97.95 lakh bales.

* Cotton farmers cash in on global price trend, sell 80% of this season’s output

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -40 Rupees to end at 22030 Rupees.

Chana      

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.98% at 4960 as the good arrival seen in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Gujarat and Maharashtra. The central government has estimated the production of gram to rise from 111 lakh tonnes in 2019-20 to 116 lakh tonnes in the current Rabi season of 2020-21. For the state of Bihar, the government approved the procurement of gram, 14350 tonnes and lentils 14175 tonnes under the support price scheme in Rabi 2020-21. Government procurement of pulses will begin in Bihar after 9 years. NAFED is making arrangements to start procurement operations. Chana area is likely to decrease in Canada due to weak market prices. Price of gram (mainly kabuli) in western Canadian mandis is soft as its global export demand remains weak. It may be noted that in Canada, 90 percent of the kabuli category and 10 percent of the native variety are produced in the cadre of gram. Kabuli chana consumption is very low in the Canadian internal division and growers mainly rely on the global export market. Kabuli chana stock increased there due to decrease in exports in the previous season and the export performance of the current marketing season has also remained weak. As a result, there is likely to be a huge increase in the outstanding surplus stock there. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4867.7 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.6% to settled at 74200 while prices down -49 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4930 and below same could see a test of 4899 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4999, a move above could see prices testing 5037.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4899-5037.

* Chana prices dropped as the good arrival seen in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Gujarat and Maharashtra.

* Currently, the sale of gram is being reduced by Nafed as the arrival of new gram is seen in the mandis.

*  For the state of Bihar, the government approved the procurement of gram, 14350 tonnes and lentils 14175 tonnes under the support price scheme in Rabi 2020-21

*  In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4867.7 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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