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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.48% at 58336 as a fresh crisis in the banking sector turned investors away from seemingly riskier assets and drove them to the safety of bullion. Europe's bank stocks came under pressure again, with Credit Suisse shares sliding after its largest investor said it could not provide the Swiss bank with more financial assistance. Overall focus was still on the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates as it assesses data showing elevated inflation in February against the backdrop of the collapse of two regional banks. Markets put a 42.9% chance on the Fed raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its March 21-22 policy meeting, and a 57.1% probability of rates being held at current levels. China's central bank announced it had bought more gold nearly 25 metric tons in February, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The February purchase follows about 32 tons of gold added in November, the first officially recorded increase since September 2019, according to data released by the People's Bank of China. By the end of February, China's total gold reserves rose to around 2,050.34 tons, PBOC data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.72% to settle at 9312 while prices are up 853 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 57383 and below same could see a test of 56429 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58976, a move above could see prices testing 59615.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 56429-59615.
* Gold rallies over 1% as Credit Suisse crisis hits risk appetite
* U.S. Treasury yields tumble, dollar soars
* Market largely pricing in Fed pausing rate hikes
 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.51% at 67299 as concerns regarding the health of banks worldwide drove investors to flee to the safety of bullion assets. The Saudi National Bank ruled out more investment for Credit Suisse despite its warning of material weakness, magnifying worries of instability in European banks after the closure of major US lenders and ahead of faster quantitative tightening by the ECB. The ongoing banking rout drove money markets to price equal chances for the Fed to hike its funds rate by a soft 25bps rate hike and leave them unchanged in the central bank's next meeting. Meanwhile, producer prices in the United States slowed more than expected, raising hopes that inflation in the US economy could be waning. Retail sales in the US were down 0.4% month-over-month in February of 2023, compared to market forecasts of a 0.3% fall, and following an upwardly revised 3.2% surge in January which was the biggest gain since March of 2021. Producer prices for final demand in the US went down 0.1% month-over-month in February 2023, against market expectations of a 0.3% increase. Margins for final demand trade services fell 0.8% and prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services decreased 1.1%. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.08% to settle at 12568 while prices are up 343 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66092 and below same could see a test of 64886 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68612, a move above could see prices testing 69926.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 64886-69926.
* Silver jumped as concerns regarding the health of banks worldwide drove investors to flee to the safety of bullion assets.
* SNB ruled out more investment for Credit Suisse despite its warning of material weakness, magnifying worries of instability in European banks
* Producer prices in the United States slowed more than expected, raising hopes that inflation in the US economy could be waning.

 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -7% at 5564 as unease over Credit Suisse spooked world markets and offset hopes of a Chinese oil demand recovery. Early signs of a return to calm and stability faded after Credit Suisse's largest investor said it could not provide the Swiss bank with more financial assistance, sending its shares and other European equities sliding. Monthly report from the International Energy Agency provided support by flagging an expected boost to oil demand from China, a day after OPEC increased its Chinese demand forecast for 2023. US crude oil inventories rose by 1.55 million barrels in the week ended March 10th, more than market expectations of a 1.188 million injection, the latest US Energy Information Administration report showed. On the other hand, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub fell by 1.916 million barrels, the most since May 2022. Also, gasoline stocks declined by 2.061 million, the most since the end of 2022 and above expectations of a 1.82 million draw. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, tumbled by 2.537 million, the most since October 2022 and compared to forecasts for a smaller 1.172 million drop. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -22.56% to settle at 8401 while prices are down -419 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5341 and below same could see a test of 5119 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5889, a move above could see prices testing 6215.
Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5119-6215.
* Crude oil extended its slide, falling 7% and hitting its lowest in more than a year
* Credit Suisse unease sparks global sell-off
* Chinese economy shows signs of gradual recovery


Natural.Gas

Natural.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.1% at 203.4 as investors monitored forecasts for heating demand and balanced record LNG exports against rising gas output. The total amount of gas flowing to the seven biggest US LNG export plants has increased to 13.1 bcfd so far in March 2023 from 12.8 bcfd in February surpassing a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd hit in March 2022 as the Freeport plant returned to service after the fire-related shutdown in June 2022. Meanwhile, average US gas demand, including exports, is expected to rise to 120.4 bcfd next week from 119.8 bcfd this week, above Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. On the other hand, average gas output in the US Lower 48 states grew to 98.8 bcfd this month, up from 98.2 bcfd in the previous period. On top of that, the latest EIA report showed gas stockpiles were about 22% above their five-year average during the week ended March 3. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through March 29 with the coldest days expected on Saturday and Sunday, March 18-19. Even though the weather will be colder than normal over the next two weeks, temperatures were still rising with the coming of spring. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.71% to settle at 30724 while prices are down -8.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 196.6 and below same could see a test of 189.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.6, a move above could see prices testing 221.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 189.8-221.8.
* Natural gas dropped as investors monitored forecasts for heating demand and balanced record LNG exports against rising gas output.
* The total amount of gas flowing to the seven biggest US LNG export plants has increased to 13.1 bcfd so far in March 2023
* Average US gas demand, including exports, is expected to rise to 120.4 bcfd next week from 119.8 bcfd this week




Copper yesterday settled down by -0.57% at 754.1 as a stronger dollar dented buying appetite while equities markets were shaken by fresh banking sector concerns. Renewed unease gripped global markets after Credit Suisse's largest investor said it could not provide the Swiss bank with more financial assistance. Economic activity in China picked up in the first two months of 2023 as consumption and infrastructure investment drove recovery from pandemic disruption despite challenges of weak global demand and a downturn in the property sector. Data showed that U.S. consumer prices rose at an expected monthly pace in February, raising bets of a smaller 25 basis-point hike in key interest rate. Mining exports from Peru, dropped 19.8% in January, compared with a year-ago period, the sector's business chamber said, in the wake of devastating protests that have rocked the country in recent months. China’s copper cathode output stood at 907,800 mt in February, up 6.4% from the previous month and 6.49% from the same period in 2022. The actual output was 8,500 mt higher than the expected 899,300 mt. Although a smelter carried out maintenance ahead of schedule in February, thanks to the ramp-up of new capacity and the resumption of three smelters, the actual output was higher than expected. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.15% to settle at 3508 while prices are down -4.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 747.9 and below same could see a test of 741.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 760.9, a move above could see prices testing 767.7.
Trading Ideas:
# Copper trading range for the day is 741.7-767.7.
# Copper prices fall on stronger dollar and banking woes
# Economic activity in China picked up in the first two months of 2023
# Mining exports from Peru, dropped 19.8% in January, compared with a year-ago period


Zinc yesterday

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.87% at 257.45 as China’s refined zinc output in March is estimated to exceed 560,000 mt as high profits have propelled smelters to ramp up production, which may lead to a supply surplus. The output loss caused by power rationing in Yunnan will be 8,000-9,000 mt though. In April, smelters of Huludao Zinc Industry and Gansu Baohui will be under maintenance, and the affected output will be limited to 5,000 mt per month. In terms of demand, enterprises in north China have resumed normal production with the end of environmental protection-induced production restrictions. China's refined zinc output stood at 501,400 mt in February, down 9,800 mt or 1.91% MoM and up 43,000 mt or 9.39% YoY, which was basically in line with expectations. Fewer working days in February led to an output cut of about 30,700 mt. In February, the domestic zinc concentrate TCs stood at 5,500 yuan/mt in metal content and the average TCs were 7,100 yuan/mt in metal content. The prices of zinc remained above 23,000 yuan/mt, hence the profits of zinc processing was 1,000-2,000 yuan/mt in metal content. Coupled with the soaring prices of domestic minor metals in February, the operating rates of domestic zinc smelters reached full capacity in light of high profits. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.35% to settle at 3145 while prices are down -2.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 254.2 and below same could see a test of 250.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 260.7, a move above could see prices testing 263.9.
 

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 250.9-263.9.
* Zinc prices dropped as active production among zinc smelters leads to pressure on supply
* China's refined zinc output stood at 501,400 mt in February, down 9,800 mt or 1.91% MoM and up 43,000 mt or 9.39% YoY
* Enterprises in north China have resumed normal production with the end of environmental protection-induced production restrictions.



Aluminium yesterday

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.71% at 203.75 as China's aluminium production rose 7.5% to 6.74 million tonnes in January-February from a year earlier, the highest output for the two months since at least 2015, data showed. The primary aluminium output in China, the world's largest aluminium producer, compared with 6.33 million tonnes in the first two months of 2022, data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. New production capacity came on line in January and February in northwest Gansu province, and smelters in the southwestern region including Guizhou, Guangxi and Sichuan ramped up their production. China's industrial production advanced 2.4% yoy in January-February 2023 combined, less than market estimates of a 2.6% rise but accelerating from a 1.3% growth in the prior period. China's retail trade expanded 3.5% from the prior year in January-February 2023 combined, shifting from a 1.8% fall in December and marking the strongest growth since August 2022. China's surveyed urban unemployment rate edged up to 5.6% in February from 5.5% in the previous month, pointing to the highest level since last November. For 2023, the government has targeted the jobless rate to stay around 5.5%, with the creation of around 12 million new urban jobs. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.23% to settle at 3532 while prices are down -3.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 201.6 and below same could see a test of 199.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.6, a move above could see prices testing 211.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 199.4-211.4.
* Aluminum prices dropped as China's aluminium production rose 7.5% to 6.74 million tonnes in January-February from a year earlier
* China's industrial production advanced 2.4% yoy in January-February 2023 combined
* China's retail trade expanded 3.5% from the prior year in January-February 2023 combined


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.82% at 1004.5 on profit booking after prices dropped on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.2 Rupees to end at 1180.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.27% to settle at 689 while prices are down -8.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 996.2 and below same could see a test of 987.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1014.9, a move above could see prices testing 1025.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 987.9-1025.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.2 Rupees to end at 1180.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices dropped on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.

 

Turmeric yesterday

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.15% at 6776 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6858.45 Rupees dropped -10.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.88% to settle at 12495 while prices are down -10 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6710 and below same could see a test of 6646 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6828, a move above could see prices testing 6882.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6646-6882.
* Turmeric prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6858.45 Rupees dropped -10.8 Rupees.


Jeera yesterday

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 32180 as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead. Buyers get active in most of the markets with the commencement of new crop arrivals. Strong supply pressures are reported in the market at 7,000 bags, higher by 1,000 bags as farmers and stockiests are anticipating corrections in prices with the improved crop conditions due to favourable weather conditions in key producing states. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 307.35 Rupees to end at 31394 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.38% to settle at 5502 while prices are up 90 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 31845 and below same could see a test of 31505 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32485, a move above could see prices testing 32785.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 31505-32785.
* Jeera gains as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 307.35 Rupees to end at 31394 Rupees per 100 kg.

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