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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 47635 weighed by rising U.S. bond yields and a stronger dollar, as data showing inflation stayed hot last month put the focus back on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week. Data showed U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in September but was partly flattered by higher prices as inflation remained hot. The Fed is expected to announce when it will start tapering, following its monetary policy meeting on Nov. 2-3. Physical gold was selling at a premium in India as consumers flocked to retailers ahead of big festivals, while premiums in top consumer China dropped. Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $0.5 an ounce over official domestic prices, up from last week’s discount of $1.5. Meanwhile, premiums in China dropped to $2-$3 an ounce, charged over global benchmark spot prices, compared with $7-$11 an ounce last week. Global demand for gold fell in the third quarter to its lowest since the last quarter of 2020 as financial investors sold the metal, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Total demand for gold over July-September was 831 tonnes, down from 894.4 tonnes in the same period of last year and 1,084.9 tonnes in the third quarter of 2019, the WGC said in its latest quarterly report. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.67% to settled at 9340 while prices down -326 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47364 and below same could see a test of 47092 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47926, a move above could see prices testing 48216.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 47092-48216.

* Gold prices fell weighed by rising U.S. bond yields and a stronger dollar

* Data showed U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in September but was partly flattered by higher prices as inflation remained hot.

* Data showed inflation stayed hot last month put the focus back on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 64534 as the dollar ticked higher and tickup in US Treasury yields as investors looked for further guidance from the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meet. U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in September, but was partly flattered by higher prices as inflation remained hot amid shortages of motor vehicles and other goods in the face of global supply constraints. The Commerce Department said that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.6% last month. Data for August was revised higher to show spending rebounding 1.0% instead of 0.8% as previously reported. U.S. labor costs increased by the most since 2001 as companies boosted wages and benefits amid a severe worker shortage, suggesting inflation could remain high for sometime. The Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, surged 1.3% last quarter after rising 0.7% in the April-June period, the Labor Department said. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on November 3rd could mark the beginning of the unwinding of its $120 billion monthly bond purchases. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank pledged to continue with the pandemic-era asset purchases program until at least March 2022 and left its rate hike outlook unchanged, even as the Eurozone economy is faced with multi-year high inflation rates. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.9% to settled at 10049 while prices down -397 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64088 and below same could see a test of 63643 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64925, a move above could see prices testing 65317.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 63643-65317.

* Silver dropped as the dollar ticked higher and tickup in US Treasury yields as investors looked for further guidance from Fed’s upcoming policy meet.

* U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in September, but was partly flattered by higher prices

* U.S. labor costs increased by the most since 2001 as companies boosted wages and benefits amid a severe worker shortage

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.29% at 6264 as hopes that OPEC and allies will decide to keep supply levels tight outweighed recent data showing a surge in U.S. crude inventories and likelihood of Iranian oil entering the market. An OPEC+ committee trimmed its forecasts for global oil demand growth this year to 5.7 million barrels per day from 5.8 million, amid a continuing strong recovery in consumption from 2020's collapse. The Joint Technical Committee, which met on Thursday, left its demand forecast for next year steady at 4.2 million bpd, one source said. That source said the revision for 2021 was "nothing to worry about" as it was an update of actual data and rounding. Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, known as OPEC+, meet on Nov. 4 to decide output policy. Japan's crude oil imports fell 15.3% in September from a year earlier to 2.47 million barrels per day (11.77 million kilolitres), the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said. Russia's offline primary oil refining capacity for November was revised up by 10.4% to 2.420 million tonnes, data showed. Expected idled refining capacity for October was little changed from the previous week's forecast at 4.120 million tonnes, the data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.94% to settled at 5518 while prices up 80 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6163 and below same could see a test of 6061 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6322, a move above could see prices testing 6379.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6061-6379.

* Crude oil gained as hopes that OPEC and allies will decide to keep supply levels

* OPEC+ JTC lowers 2021 oil demand growth prediction slightly to 5.7 million bpd

* OPEC+ trims 2021 oil demand view, keeps 2022 steady


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -6.13% at 409 on rising output in the United States and another big drop in global gas prices after Russia said it would send more fuel to Europe for the winter heating season. The daily decline occurred despite rising liquefied natural gas exports (LNG) and forecasts for colder weather and soaring heating demand in two weeks. Russian President Vladimir Putin told Kremlin-controlled energy giant Gazprom to start pumping gas into European gas storage once Russia finishes filling its own stocks, which may happen by Nov. 8. Since the summer, gas prices around the world have soared to record highs as utilities scramble for LNG cargoes to refill low stockpiles in Europe and meet rising demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 92.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 91.1 bcfd in September. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to reach 93.9 bcfd on Friday, its highest since July, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv. On a daily basis, however, feedgas to LNG export plants was on track to reach 11.9 bcfd, its highest level since May. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.13% to settled at 4311 while prices down -26.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 398.6 and below same could see a test of 388.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 429, a move above could see prices testing 448.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 388.1-448.9.

* Natural gas fell on rising output in the United States and another big drop in global gas prices

* Russia said it would send more fuel to Europe for the winter heating season.

* The daily decline occurred despite rising LNG exports and forecasts for colder weather and soaring heating demand in two weeks.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 745.1 amid fears of weaker demand due to a power crisis in Asia and Europe. Copper prices rose earlier in October to as high as $10,452.50 a tonne in London and 76,490 yuan a tonne in Shanghai, flirting with their record highs as inventories in exchange warehouses dropped to multi-year lows. ShFE copper inventories were last at 39,839 tonnes, a level unseen since June 2009, while on-warrant LME stockpiles hit their lowest since 1998 earlier in the month before picking up slightly in recent sessions. Money managers were net long copper on COMEX to the tune of 54,030 contracts, as of Oct. 19, latest exchange data showed, and the highest since May 11 – when prices of the metal just hit their historic highs. China’s central bank injected 200 billion yuan ($31.29 billion) through seven-day reverse repurchase agreements into the banking system, bringing the weekly net cash injection to the highest in 21 months. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said its website said the move was to “maintain stability in month-end liquidity conditions.” For the week, the PBOC has net injected 680 billion yuan through reverse repos, biggest weekly cash offering since January 2020. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.92% to settled at 4740 while prices down -6.65 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 737.7 and below same could see a test of 730.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 753.3, a move above could see prices testing 761.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 730.2-761.4.

* Copper prices dropped amid fears of weaker demand due to a power crisis in Asia and Europe.

* ShFE copper inventories were last at 39,839 tonnes, a level unseen since June 2009

* Money managers were net long copper on COMEX to the tune of 54,030 contracts, the highest since May 11
 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.29% at 287.05 as the social zinc ingot inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 143,600 mt, down 3,700 mt on the week, which was mainly contributed by Tianjin and Guangdong. There is still no signs as of when the zinc inventory will come to a pivot. On the macro front, the US disclosed its GDP reading with the lowest growth rate since the economy recovered from the COVID, indicating slowing economic development in Q3 amid supply chain disruptions and resurging COVID cases which suppressed expenditures and investments. The global zinc market deficit declined to 14,900 tonnes in August from a revised deficit of 40,400 tonnes in July, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 6,600 tonnes in July. During the first eight months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed a deficit of 57,000 tonnes versus a surplus of 446,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc are produced and consumed each year. U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in September, but was partly flattered by higher prices as inflation remained hot amid shortages of motor vehicles and other goods in the face of global supply constraints. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.01% to settled at 1250 while prices up 3.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 282 and below same could see a test of 276.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 290.6, a move above could see prices testing 294.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 276.8-294.

* Zinc prices rose as the social zinc ingot inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 43,600 mt, down 3,700 mt

* There is still no signs as of when the zinc inventory will come to a pivot.

* On the macro front, the US disclosed its GDP reading with the lowest growth rate since the economy recovered from the COVID

 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled flat at 1520.5 amid the slower decline in domestic nickel plate inventory and large inflows of imported goods. The nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports grew 540,000 wmt from a week earlier to 8.987 million wmt as of October 29. The total inventory at seven major ports stood at around 4.69 million wmt, a growth of 260,000 wmt from a week earlier. China imported 306,500 mt of NPI and ferronickel in September 2021, a decrease of 12.34% month-on-month and 10.09% year-on-year, according to customs data. The cumulative imports from January to September were 2.8 million mt. The total amount of imported NPI and ferronickel in September stood at 47,900 mt of nickel content, a decrease of 8.19% month-on-month and 18.23% year-on-year. In September, the imports of NPI were approximately 260,000 mt, a decrease of 14.6% month-on-month. And the imports of ferronickel stood at approximately 48,000 mt, an increase of 2.5% month-on-month. Some mining areas in the Philippines have entered rainy season in October, thus the exports of nickel ore to China will decline sharply and it is difficult to maintain a good grade. The nickel ore inventory at plants is adequate amid power rationing policy and pre-stage restocking on the rainy season estimate. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.14% to settled at 1479 while prices up 2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1495.4 and below same could see a test of 1470.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1535.6, a move above could see prices testing 1550.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1470.3-1550.7.

* Nickel settled flat amid the slower decline in domestic nickel plate inventory and large inflows of imported goods.

* The nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports grew 540,000 wmt from a week earlier to 8.987 million wmt

* China imported 306,500 mt of NPI and ferronickel in September 2021, a decrease of 12.34% month-on-month and 10.09% year-on-year
 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 221.3 as the SHFE aluminium inventory is growing slowly, but the downstream purchase still cannot be described as optimistic. In China, according to the cost survey disclosed by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the production costs of coal were significantly lower than the spot prices of coal, and the market was heavily smacked by the news, which led to a steep decline in thermal coal prices. In terms of supply and demand, places like Shanxi and Guangxi have issued the production curtailment notice in autumn and winter, while many other places including Hebei and Shandong released warnings against the heavy air pollution. The in-plant inventory of coke in 247 steel mills declined, while the overall inventory has been stable amid weak supply and demand. China’s central bank injected 200 billion yuan ($31.29 billion) through seven-day reverse repurchase agreements into the banking system, bringing the weekly net cash injection to the highest in 21 months. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said its website said the move was to “maintain stability in month-end liquidity conditions.” For the week, the PBOC has net injected 680 billion yuan through reverse repos, biggest weekly cash offering since January 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.46% to settled at 2571 while prices down -0.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 216.8 and below same could see a test of 212.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 224.3, a move above could see prices testing 227.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 212.3-227.3.

* Aluminium dropped as the SHFE aluminium inventory is growing slowly, but the downstream purchase still cannot be described as optimistic.

* Data showed that China's social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas rose 25,000 mt on the week to 982,000 mt

* China c.bank makes biggest weekly short-term cash injection in 21 months


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 946.6 as demand from consumer side is extremely weak and industrial demand is also not picking up. Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil, availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Major physical market player expects demand to sluggish for next few week as cash crunch seen in spot market, while expectations are high about demand improvement ahead of winter season starts. China is one of the biggest buyer for Indian Mentha, no much buying inquiry from China as mainland China and Hong Kong markets were shut. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Firstly damages due to rain in key area and secondly farmers for the last 2 years where sowing mentha but due to not getting much profit at intervals there had been shift to other crops also. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -39.8 Rupees to end at 1054.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.46% to settled at 1045 while prices down -3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 943.5 and below same could see a test of 940.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 951.2, a move above could see prices testing 955.9.
Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 940.5-955.9.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -39.8 Rupees to end at 1054.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand from consumer side is extremely weak

* Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil

* Availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season.


Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.21% at 5374 on short covering after prices dropped as soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year on higher sowing area and likely improvement in productivity, according to industry body SOPA. In its estimate, Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said that the total area under soybean for the year 2021 is 119.984 lakh hectares. The government's area estimate is 123.677 lakh hectares. In last year's Kharif (summer sow) season, total soyabean acreage stood at 118.383 lakh hectare. China's soybean imports from Brazil in September fell 18% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as poor crush margins limited demand. The world's top buyer of soybeans brought in 5.936 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil last month, versus 7.25 million tonnes in the corresponding year-ago period, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Crushers stepped up purchases last year from top supplier Brazil as a fast recovering pig herd pushed up demand. But their buying has slowed in recent months, as falling hog prices hit margins. U.S. soybean export sales for the week ended Oct. 7 were 2.88 million tonnes, primarily due to sales to China, beating trade expectations, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 48 Rupees to 5502 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.12% to settled at 69060 while prices up 64 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5322 and below same could see a test of 5270 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5418, a move above could see prices testing 5462.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5270-5462.

* Soyabean gained on short covering after prices dropped as soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonne

* China's soybean imports from Brazil in September fell 18% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as poor crush margins limited demand.

* Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  48 Rupees to 5502 Rupees per 100 kgs.


Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 1263.4 as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output. India slashed its base import tax on crude palm oil, crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil to zero from 2.5%, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The Govt. has decided to impose stock limits on edible oils and oilseeds up to March 31, 2022. This decision has been taken to soften the prices of edible oils in the country and provide relief to consumers. The Ministry said that the stock limits will be decided by the respective state governments depending on local conditions. It has however decided to give exemption to importers and exporters subject to conditions. Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected by the patchy rains in the key producing States of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1312.3 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.77% to settled at 41930 while prices up 3.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1259 and below same could see a test of 1253 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1270, a move above could see prices testing 1275.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1253-1275.

* Ref soyoil prices gained as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output.

* Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected.

* India’s Sept edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 3.24 percent mom: SEA

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1312.3 Rupees per 10 kgs.

palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.43% at 1128.1 as supply constraints due to the rainy season and strength in rival oils supported the market. Prices are seen rising as the rainy season and coronavirus-linked labour shortage are slowing output in Malaysia. October export data improved amid tight supply worries. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia. The Indian Vegetable Oils Producers Association says it is seeing early signs of demand shifting from palm oil to soft oils after India's duty cut made soft oil more attractive. Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2021 is forecast to decline by 700,000 tonnes to 18.4 million tonnes due to a labour shortage and erratic weather conditions, state agency the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said. Neighbouring Indonesia has not faced such labour issues and has expanded its planted area by about 200,000 hectares this year, MPOC chief executive Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail said. Production in the world's largest palm oil producer is projected to rise by 2.5 million tonnes to 45.5 million tonnes, he said. Indonesian palm oil exports in 2021 will likely be much lower than previously forecast, at 34.423 million tonnes, the vice chairman of the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) told. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 6.7 Rupees to end at 1143.8 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.05% to settled at 4706 while prices up 4.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1122.5 and below same could see a test of 1117 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1132.8, a move above could see prices testing 1137.6.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 1117-1137.6.

* Crude palm oil prices gained in recent sessions as supply constraints due to the rainy season.

* Prices are seen rising as the rainy season and coronavirus-linked labour shortage are slowing output in Malaysia.

* The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 6.7 Rupees to end at 1143.8 Rupees.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.81% at 7274 amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand. However downside seen limited following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. Due to favorable weather, production is likely to be higher in 2021-22 (July-June) season. Besides, heavy carryover stocks and slack in bulk demand are keeping prices under pressure. In the first 4 months of FY 2021-22, turmeric exports declined by 26% to 53,000 tonnes as compared to the same period last year, but almost at the same level as the 5-year average. Support is expected on the news that due to June and July floods almost 10% crop washed away so we can see 10-15 % less sowing also farmers had shown interested in other crops as prices where more. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but could be higher in the coming months. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7129.15 Rupees dropped -23.05 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.72% to settled at 7225 while prices down -134 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7130 and below same could see a test of 6986 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7428, a move above could see prices testing 7582.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6986-7582.

* Turmeric dropped amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.

* However downside seen limited following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.

* The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7129.15 Rupees dropped -23.05 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.53% at 14965 as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels. However downside seen limited as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. With the forecast of normal rains in the western region during September to November, the sowing of cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan may increase. In 2021 (January-June), the country has exported more than 1.50 lakh tonnes of cumin as compared to 1.3 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. Recent estimates state that cumin production has slumped by 60% in Iran’s Razavi Khorasan Province due to severe drought and unusually cold weather coupled with an early spring. Rainfall ranges 63% lower than last year this season so far. Temperatures ranged 3.1-0.4C (37.58-32.72F) lower between October 2020 and April 2021 than in the same period in 2019/2020 according to official statistics. Extensive crop losses seen, the early onset of spring in February also caused serious damage to production. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -13.35 Rupees to end at 14700 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.66% to settled at 5094 while prices down -80 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14855 and below same could see a test of 14750 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15110, a move above could see prices testing 15260.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14750-15260.

* Jeera dropped as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.

* However downside seen limited as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin

* India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -13.35 Rupees to end at 14700 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.94% at 32660 amid low production, rising demand and supply constraints. Currently, raw cotton prices in various markets across the country are ruling above ₹7,000 a quintal against the MSP of ₹5,726 fixed for this year. Prices much above MSP means the CCI will not need to do any market intervention this year. Prices are moving up since the cotton balance sheet is tight and ending stocks are lower. Except China, no other country seems to have ample stocks. Cotton exports could be lower at 50 lakh bales this season (October 2021-September 2022) compared with 75-80 lakh bales last season. SIMA said the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (CCPC) had pegged the carryover stocks at 120 lakh bales and if additional 10-15 lakh bales of cotton would have been consumed or exported, ending stocks could be 105 lakh bales. SIMA said cotton production this year is estimated to be 360 lakh bales (170 kg) and if the carryover stocks are pegged at 100 lakh bales and imports at 10 lakh bales, the industry would have a total supply of 470 lakh bales. According to estimates of CAI, a trade body, the carryover stocks are estimated at 82.50 lakh bales. In spot market, Cotton gained by 360 Rupees to end at 31250 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.65% to settled at 3432 while prices up 620 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32240 and below same could see a test of 31810 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32950, a move above could see prices testing 33230.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 31810-33230.

* Cotton prices remained supported amid low production, rising demand and supply constraints.

* Projections of tight supplies later this season leave industry worried

* Indian cotton exports will be reduced by 35 per cent from 78 lakh bales (last year) to around 45-50 lakh bales this year

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 360 Rupees to end at 31250 Rupees.

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