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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.05% at 46363 as worries of an early Fed tapering eased. The U.S. dollar and bond yields took a breather as signs of moderating U.S. inflation helped eased concerns of earlier-than-expected stimulus tapering by the Federal Reserve. Data from the Labor Department showed that the nation's consumer price index eased in July from the previous month. President Joe Biden said that his administration is working to relieve bottlenecks threatening the economic recovery and trusts the Federal Reserve to take any steps that may be needed to rein in prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly said the current burst in inflation is likely temporary. Biden faces a choice in the next few months over whether to appoint Powell to another four-year term when his current term ends in February. The consumer price index rose 0.5 percent last month after climbing 0.9 percent in June. In the 12 months through July 2021, the CPI advanced 5.4 percent. The drop in the month-to-month inflation rate was the largest in 15 months. Producer prices posted their largest annual increase in more than a decade amid inflation pressures while the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell again last week as the economic recovery continues to be bumpy. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.22% to settled at 13232 while prices down -25 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46149 and below same could see a test of 45935 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46579, a move above could see prices testing 46795.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 45935-46795.
* Gold steadied as worries of an early Fed tapering eased.
* Biden says he trusts Fed to take action on inflation if needed
* Data from the Labor Department showed that the nation's consumer price index eased in July from the previous month.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.45% at 61860 pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, but easing fears over early tapering of economic support by the Federal Reserve kept downside limited. Data showed U.S. consumer price increases in July were in line with estimates and down from June. Market participants took stock of data that showed a drop in weekly jobless claims and U.S. producer prices in the 12 months through July jumping by a record 7.8%.Also on investors’ radar was U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget proposals, which were passed in the Senate but faces a vote by the House of Representatives. Producer prices posted their largest annual increase in more than a decade amid inflation pressures while the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell again last week as the economic recovery continues to be bumpy. U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in July, the Labor Department said, suggesting inflation could remain high as strong demand fueled by the recovery continues to hurt supply chains. In the 12 months through July, the PPI jumped 7.8%, a record high since the measure was introduced in 2010. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.0% last month after rising 1.0% in June. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.21% to settled at 12385 while prices down -911 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61370 and below same could see a test of 60879 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62518, a move above could see prices testing 63175.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 60879-63175.
* Silver prices slipped pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields
* But easing fears over early tapering of economic support by the Federal Reserve kept downside limited.
* U.S. producer prices rise by record in 12 months to July

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.16% at 5138 as the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut forecasts for global oil demand "sharply" for the rest of this year, citing new COVID-19 restrictions imposed in several major oil consuming countries, particularly in Asia. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, to boost oil output to tackle rising gasoline prices that they see as a threat to the global economic recovery. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that fuel demand in the top global crude user is averaging 20.6 million barrels per day (bpd) over the past four weeks, roughly in line with 2019 levels, and U.S. refiners slightly increased the amount of crude they processed last week. OPEC agreed in July to boost output each month by 400,000 bpd over the previous month, starting in August, until the rest of their record cuts of 10 million bpd, about 10% of world demand, made in 2020 are phased out. However, there are still concerns that the increase will not be enough to meet demand as the U.S. and Europe ease their coronavirus-induced movement restrictions. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.63% to settled at 5229 while prices down -8 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5095 and below same could see a test of 5053 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5176, a move above could see prices testing 5215.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5053-5215.
* Crude oil prices dropped as the IEA cut forecasts for global oil demand "sharply" for the rest of this year
* White House: OPEC+ output not enough, may harm global recovery
* White House not asking U.S. oil producers to increase output

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.18% at 292.5 on forecasts for slightly less hot weather and lower air conditioning demand this week than previously expected. That decline also came after federal data showed last week's storage build was bigger than usual due to mild weather and a decline in exports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 49 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 6. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 2.776 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 6.0% below the five-year average of 2.954 tcf for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August from 91.6 bcfd in July. That compares with an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. But with European and Asian gas both trading over $15 per mmBtu, compared with just $4 for the U.S. fuel, analysts said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico have slipped to an average of 6.3 bcfd so far in August from 6.6 bcfd in July and a record 6.7 bcfd in June. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 31.48% to settled at 11942 while prices down -9.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 288.6 and below same could see a test of 284.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 299.5, a move above could see prices testing 306.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 284.6-306.4.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for slightly less hot weather and lower air conditioning demand this week than previously expected.
* That decline also came after federal data showed last week's storage build was bigger than usual due to mild weather and a decline in exports.
* EIA said utilities added 49 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 6.

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 730.25 as In China, the growth rate of social financing and credit supply in July was both below expectation, the lowest since last February and October respectively, indicating more challenges over economy recovery. The US Senate approved a $1 trillion infrastructure bill to rebuild the nation’s deteriorating roads and bridges and fund new climate resilience and broadband initiatives. Two unions at Codelco’s Andina copper mine in Chile said they would walk off the job in less than 24 hours after rejecting the latest contract offer from the state-owned miner following a five-day period of government-mediated talks. The unions at Andina, which produced 184,000 tonnes of copper in 2020, voted down a previous contract offer in late July. Copper prices have soared to record highs this year, handing unions in Chile additional leverage, ratcheting up tensions in labor negotiations and putting pressure on global supply of the red metal. On the macro front, US CPI in July was basically in line with market expectations of a slowing increase though remained at high levels, easing concerns that the Fed might be forced to take actions to contain inflation. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.39% to settled at 4446 while prices down -5.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 725.3 and below same could see a test of 720.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 738, a move above could see prices testing 745.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 720.3-745.7.
* Copper dropped as China’s growth rate of social financing and credit supply in July was both below expectation, indicating challenges over economy recovery.
* The US Senate approved a $1 trillion infrastructure bill
* Unions at Codelco's Andina mine set to walk off job on Thursday

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.19% at 248.55 as China's output of zinc in July rose more slowly than expected from the prior month due to restrictions on power use in key production hubs. Refined zinc and zinc alloy production from 51 smelters surveyed was 461,000 tonnes last month; that was up 9,700 tonnes from June and up 7.1% year-on-year, although average daily output fell 1.1% on the month. On the macro front, US CPI in July slowed down, indicating that the inflation might stop increasing. While some hawkish officers suggested that Fed should taper bond purchase as early as this October. Premiums rose slightly in Shanghai, and climbed more significantly in Guangdong due to disruptions to the supply side. The cancelled LME zinc warehouse receipts increased by 21,500 mt, a new high since 2018, triggering a lot of speculation in the market. The output of zinc ingot declined on the month due to the continuous power curtailment, and the domestic zinc ingot inventories stood low. Zinc was favoured by funds amid the short-term contradiction between the supply and demand. zinc prices performed strongly with higher open interest. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -30.2% to settled at 1558 while prices down -3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 246.7 and below same could see a test of 244.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 251.3, a move above could see prices testing 254.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 244.8-254.
* Zinc prices dropped as China's output of zinc in July rose more slowly than expected from the prior month due to restrictions on power use in key production hubs.
* The cancelled LME zinc warehouse receipts increased by 21,500 mt, a new high since 2018, triggering a lot of speculation in the market.
* Premiums rose slightly in Shanghai, and climbed more significantly in Guangdong due to disruptions to the supply side.
 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.19% at 1491.3 as falling Chinese output stoked supply worries, while easing fears over U.S. policy tightening also lent support. ShFE nickel inventories were last at 6,707 tonnes, down 80% from the same time last year. Meanwhile, the dollar eased slightly as a cooling in consumer inflation tempered bets for an earlier tightening of U.S. monetary policy. China's refined nickel output in July fell 13.4% month on month as top smelter Jinchuan Group carried out an overhaul on a furnace. Nickel cathode output was 12,353 tonnes, down 16.4% year on year, with Jinchuan accounting for 11,000 tonnes of the total. January-July output fell 15.7% to 91,723 tonnes. As Gansu-based Jinchuan's production returns to normal this month, China's August refined nickel output is seen recovering to 14,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, July production of stainless steel raw material nickel pig iron (NPI) was 40,500 tonnes on a metal content basis, up 5.6% month on month but down 7.7% from a year earlier. Nickel premiums rose in the United States on continued higher sales, despite the end of a much-watched strike at Vale’s Sudbury mine in Canada, which greatly contributed to the increases in the US nickel premium in recent weeks. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.91% to settled at 1771 while prices up 17.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1481.3 and below same could see a test of 1471.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1499.3, a move above could see prices testing 1507.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1471.3-1507.3.
* Nickel prices climbed as falling Chinese output stoked supply worries, while easing fears over U.S. policy tightening also lent support.
* ShFE nickel inventories were last at 6,707 tonnes, down 80% from the same time last year.
* China's refined nickel output in January-July fell 15.7% year-on-year to 91,723 tonnes.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 206.95 as data showed that China's social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas increased 7,000 mt on the week and rose 15,000 mt from Monday to 739,000 mt as of August 12. The inventories in Wuxi and Hainan rose slightly. The shortage of arrivals eased in Wuxi, and the outbound volume declined on the week, as downstream purchase was maintained on rigid demand amid high aluminium prices. At the same time, Hainan received a large amount of aluminium ingot from north-west regions. The stocks of aluminium billet in five major consumption areas increased by 14,400 mt to 117,600 mt on Thursday August 12 from the previous week, an increase of 14%. Among them, inventories in Foshan saw the greatest increase of 7500 mt or 16% on the week. In China, the growth rate of social financing and credit supply in July was both below expectation, the lowest since last February and October respectively, indicating more challenges over economy recovery. On the macro front, US CPI in July was basically in line with market expectations of a slowing increase though remained at high levels, easing concerns that the Fed might be forced to take actions to contain inflation. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.74% to settled at 1811 while prices down -0.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 206 and below same could see a test of 204.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.6, a move above could see prices testing 210.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204.9-210.1.
* Aluminium dropped as data showed that China's social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas increased 7,000 mt
* The stocks of aluminium billet in five major consumption areas increased by 14,400 mt to 117,600 mt
* The market shall also pay attention to the influences of imports and released government reserves.

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 932.4 on some low level buying after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Last month, support seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 16.6 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.95% to settled at 1041 while prices up 3.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 929.3 and below same could see a test of 926.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 936, a move above could see prices testing 939.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 926.3-939.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 16.6 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on some low level buying after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -5.99% at 7591 as China has lowered its estimates of soybean imports in the year 2020/21 following a decline in crush margins, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report. China's 2020/21 soybean imports were seen at 98.6 million tonnes, down 1.84 million tonnes from last month's estimates, as the crushing volume of soybeans has fallen since July because of declining margins, the report said. The USDA confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of new-crop U.S. soybeans to China and another 130,000 tonnes to unknown destinations. The USDA rated 60% of the U.S. soybean crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week and in line with trade expectations. Brazil's crop supply agency, Conab, slightly raised its estimate of Brazil's 2020/21 soybean harvest to 135.978 tonnes, from 135.912 million seen in July. Soybean registered the highest growth in their acreage as overall Kharif sowing in Gujarat has touched 76.67 lakh hectare (lh) or 82.61 per cent of last three years’ average, latest data of the state government shows. Farmers have completed sowing soybean in 2.19 lakh hectare (lh), a growth of around 71 per cent over and above the last year’s average acreage of 1.28 lh. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 228 Rupees to 8850 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.7% to settled at 17795 while prices down -484 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7391 and below same could see a test of 7192 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7989, a move above could see prices testing 8388.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7192-8388.
* Soyabean prices dropped as China lowers estimates of 2020/21 soybean imports on falling crush margins.
* China's 2020/21 soybean imports were seen at 98.6 million tonnes, down 1.84 million tonnes from last month's estimates.
* The USDA confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of new-crop U.S. soybeans to China and another 130,000 tonnes to unknown destinations.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  228 Rupees to 8850 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.06% at 1374.3 as total oilseeds production in the country during 2020-21 is estimated at record 36.10 million tonnes which is higher by 2.88 million tonnes than the production during 2019-20. Further, the production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is higher by 5.56 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production of 30.55 million tonnes. However downside seen limited supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. India's imports of sunflower oil could rise to a record in 2021/22 as potential bumper crops in Russia and Ukraine pull prices below rival soyoil, making it lucrative for price-sensitive buyers from the subcontinent, industry officials said. India is the world's biggest importer of edible oils and higher purchases of sunflower oil could help exporters such as Argentina, Russia and Ukraine to dispose of surplus output. All India, oilseed sowing area has been reported about 173.50 lakh ha compared to normal of corresponding week (164.88 lakh ha). Thus 8.62 lakh ha more area has been covered compared to normal of corresponding week. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1393.4 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.87% to settled at 28110 while prices down -0.8 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1365 and below same could see a test of 1357 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1383, a move above could see prices testing 1393.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1357-1393.
* Ref soy oil pared gains as total oilseeds production during 2020-21 is estimated at record 36.10 million tonnes higher by 2.88 million tonnes.
* Further, the production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is higher by 5.56 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production of 30.55 million tonnes.
* However downside seen limited supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1393.4 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 1164.5 on profit booking after prices seen supported amid lower stockpiles and tightening production. Importing nations stockpile the edible oil, with bullish Malaysian Palm Oil Board data expected to provide further support. The prices was supported by stockpiling activities in importing countries, such as key buyer China, as arriving shipments face quarantine measures due to COVID-19. Malaysia's end-July palm oil end-stocks fell 7.3% from June to 1.5 million tonnes, data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed. Crude palm oil production declined 5.17% from June to 1.52 million tonnes, while palm oil exports fell 0.75% to 1.41 million tonnes, the MPOB said. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Aug. 1-10 fell between 10% and 12.8% from the same period in July, cargo surveyors said. India will launch a 110 billion rupee ($1.48 billion) plan to boost domestic oilseed production to make the country self-sufficient in edible oil, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, a move that will cut costly vegetable oil imports. India is the world's biggest vegetable oil importer and spends an average of $8.5-$10 billion annually on edible oil imports. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 16.9 Rupees to end at 1189 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.51% to settled at 5943 while prices down -3.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1151.6 and below same could see a test of 1138.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1179.6, a move above could see prices testing 1194.8.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1138.8-1194.8.
* Crude palm oil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported amid lower stockpiles and tightening production.
* Malaysia's end-July palm oil end-stocks fell 7.3% from June to 1.5 million tonnes
* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Aug. 1-10 fell between 10% and 12.8% from the same period in July
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 16.9 Rupees to end at 1189 Rupees.
 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.74% at 7638 as mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved. Production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons. As per sources, estimated mustard crushing during June 2021 stood at 6 lakh tonnes, lower by 33% compared to 9 lakh tonnes last month it is also lower by 25% against 8 lakh tonnes in June 2020. Further negative crush margin for mustard seed also discouraged crushing activity and further reduced buying interest for mustard seed. India’s Rapeseed meal exports fell by 46% to 0.97 lakh tonnes on M-o-M basis during May-2021. However mustard meal exports were higher by 66% as compared to same period last year. In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year. As per USDA in its June-21 update, World Mustard seed production for 2021-22 is estimated to increase by 4% at 741 lakh tonnes. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% to 57 lakh tonnes. Total consumption estimated to remain same around last year and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% at 57 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 103 Rupees to end at 7737 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.9% to settled at 37050 while prices down -135 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7559 and below same could see a test of 7479 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7762, a move above could see prices testing 7885.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7479-7885.
* Mustard seed dropped as arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved.  
* However downside seen limited as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons.
* In 2022-22 marketing year, total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 103 Rupees to end at 7737 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.31% at 7684 as support seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas were the key factors that dented market sentiments in the month of June. As the lockdown restrictions were eased in the month of June, the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. The export of turmeric is highest in the months of May, June and July. After the relaxation of the lockdown in some states, spot prices have started increasing in Erode and Nanded mandis last week. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7290 Rupees dropped -20 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.48% to settled at 11450 while prices up 246 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7502 and below same could see a test of 7322 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7798, a move above could see prices testing 7914.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7322-7914.
* Turmeric prices seen supported on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* Turmeric crops were severely damaged due to heavy rains.
* Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7290 Rupees dropped -20 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.27% at 13565 as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market. There is also uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month following increased arrivals in Gujarat as well as Rajasthan. As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags (of 55 Kg each), i.e., 1.10 to 1.30 lakh tonnes which are higher than usual range of 7-12 Lakh bags. However, after accounting for wastage, and increased exports, market participants are expecting carryover stocks to be around 0.65-0.70 lakh tonnes. It may be noted that during the FY 2020-21 Jeera exports stood at 2.98 lakh tonnes, 39% higher over the previous year. As per sources, export demand for Jeera is expected to recover as close competitors of India in terms of exporting Jeera, viz., Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. It has been reported that production in Syria is likely to be lower because of political instability and in Turkey is also likely to be lower compared to previous year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 41.65 Rupees to end at 13550 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.38% to settled at 5511 while prices up 170 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13420 and below same could see a test of 13270 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13660, a move above could see prices testing 13750.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13270-13750.
* Jeera prices gained as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market.
* However upside seen limited due to the uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry.
* As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 41.65 Rupees to end at 13550 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.38% at 26010 as production of Cotton is estimated at 35.38 million bales (of 170 kg each) is higher by 3.49 million bales than the average cotton production. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net sales of 149,300 running bales (RB) for the 2021/2022 marketing year and exports of 229,500 RB, down 4% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. Cotton sowing across the country has picked up with the revival of monsoon in several states, after seeing a lull in the month of July due to a dry spell. Sowing in the north is almost complete with Punjab reporting a slight dip. The sowing has been normal in Haryana while Rajasthan and Gujarat had reported dry spells. There has been a dip in Maharashtra since farmers shifted to other crops like soybean and groundnut, but some pick up is likely in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The lower acreage is largely attributed to delayed rains. But with kapas prices ruling at Rs 8000 per quintal, sowing is expected to continue till August-end across various states including Andhra, Telangana, Gujarat, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. In spot market, Cotton gained by 210 Rupees to end at 27090 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.33% to settled at 3624 while prices down -100 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25940 and below same could see a test of 25860 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 26150, a move above could see prices testing 26280.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 25860-26280.
* Cotton dropped as production of Cotton is estimated at 35.38 million bales, higher by 3.49 million bales.  
* USDA’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 149,300 running bales (RB) for the 2021/2022 marketing year.
* Cotton sowing across the country has picked up with the revival of monsoon in several states
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 210 Rupees to end at 27090 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.83% at 5006 as total Pulses production during 2020-21 is estimated at 25.72 million tonnes which is higher by 3.73 million tonnes than the last five years’ average production of 21.99 million tonnes. All India, pulses sowing area coverage has been reported to about 119.54 lakh ha area compared to normal of corresponding week (121.69 lakh ha). Thus 2.15 lakh ha less area has been covered compared to normal of corresponding week. The production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years (2018-19 to 2020-21) and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT (lakh million tonnes) from the 19.5 LMT for 2020-2021, the Parliament was informed. Data from the government showed that all India production of pulses during 2016-17 to 2020-21 -- all numbers in '000 tonnes -- was 23,130.94 for 2016-17, 25,415.92 for 2017-18, 22,075.96 for 2018-19, 23,025.25 for 2019-20, and for 2020-21, it is projected at 25,575.69, as per the 3rd advance estimates. India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said, raising expectations of higher crop yields in Asia's third-biggest economy, which relies heavily on the vast farm sector. " In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 24.25 Rupees to end at 4930.9 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.92% to settled at 109090 while prices down -42 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4966 and below same could see a test of 4925 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5064, a move above could see prices testing 5121.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4925-5121.
* Chana dropped as total Pulses production during 2020-21 is estimated at 25.72 million tonnes higher by 3.73 million tonnes
* All India, pulses sowing area coverage has been reported to about 119.54 lakh ha, down by 2.15 lakh ha less area
* The production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 24.25 Rupees to end at 4930.9 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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