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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 50502 as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pulled back on expectations that the Federal Reserve will temper its rate-hike stance from next month. Investors expect the central bank to deliver another jumbo 75bps rate hike but the odds are rising that it may slow the pace of rate hike increases in December. India's gold consumption in the months of October to December could fall by around a quarter from a year ago as inflation depresses rural demand, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. The lower purchases in the world's second-biggest gold consumer could weigh on prices, which are trading near their lowest level in more than two-years. India's demand for gold rose 14% from a year ago to 191.7 tonnes in the quarter through September as festivals drove jewellery sales, the WGC said in a report. Central banks bought a record 399 tonnes of gold worth around $20 billion in the third quarter of 2022, helping to lift global demand for the metal, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Demand for gold was also strong from jewellers and buyers of gold bars and coins, the WGC said in its latest quarterly report, but exchange traded funds (ETFs) storing bullion for investors shrank. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.72% to settle at 9784 while prices are up 180 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50286 and below same could see a test of 50071 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50707, a move above could see prices testing 50913

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Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50071-50913.
* Gold prices climbed as dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pulled back on expectations that Fed will temper its rate-hike stance from next month.
* India's gold demand dips as inflation hits rural buyers
* Record central bank buying lifts global gold demand, WGC says


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 2.03% at 58846 on hopes the US Federal Reserve could slow down the pace of interest rate increases soon to avoid overtightening. Investors are now almost certain that the US central bank will deliver a fourth-straight 75 bps rate hike on November 2nd but beliefs the Fed will pivot by December sparked a bond rally and dragged down the dollar, boosting the appeal of the non-interest bearing assets. The accompanying policy statement and Fed Chief Jerome Powell's news conference may provide additional clues regarding the likelihood of a pivot by the U.S. central bank. Global factory output weakened in October as widespread recession fears, high inflation and China's zero-COVID policy hurt demand, business surveys showed, adding to persistent supply disruptions and darkening recovery prospects. Inflation has soared globally as supply chains still healing from the coronavirus pandemic were hit again by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, forcing consumers to rein in purchases. U.S. manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace since the depths of the first COVID-19 lockdown in May 2020 last month as the Federal Reserve's aggressive push to raise interest rates in order to quash stubbornly high inflation cools demand for goods. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.75% to settle at 14660 while prices are up 1168 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 58007 and below same could see a test of 57169 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59636, a move above could see prices testing 60427.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 57169-60427.
* Silver gains on hopes the US Federal Reserve could slow down the pace of interest rate increases soon to avoid overtightening.
* Investors are now almost certain that the US central bank will deliver a fourth-straight 75 bps rate hike on November.
* The accompanying policy statement and Fed Powell's news conference may provide additional clues regarding the likelihood of a pivot by the U.S. central bank.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3% at 7314 as a weaker U.S. dollar offset widening COVID-19 curbs in China that have stoked fears of slowing fuel demand in the world's second-largest oil consumer. Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) chief Farhat Bengdara said that oil output had risen to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from 600,000 bpd three months ago and that NOC does not expect any disruption in oil production. Oil production has been repeatedly hit in Libya by groups blockading facilities, sometimes to demand material benefits but also as a tactic to achieve wider political ends. U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in August fell by 39,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 194,000 bpd, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. oil output climbed in August to its highest level since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to U.S. government data, as higher crude prices buoyed production. U.S. monthly field production rose to 11.98 million barrels per day in August, the highest since March 2020, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. U.S. oil output climbed to nearly 12 million barrels per day in August, highest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as shale companies have said they do not see production accelerating in coming months. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 29.03% to settle at 5365 while prices are up 213 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7181 and below same could see a test of 7048 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7416, a move above could see prices testing 7518.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7048-7518.
* Crude oil rose as a weaker U.S. dollar offset widening COVID-19 curbs in China that have stoked fears of slowing fuel demand
* Libya NOC chief says oil output is 1.2 million bpd
* U.S. oil production nears 12 mln barrels/day, at pre – pandemic high


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -8.41% at 473.6 on forecasts for the weather to remain mild for the next two weeks, which should allow utilities to keep injecting gas into storage for the winter through at least mid November. That price decline came despite forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a projected increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports once Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas returns to service. Freeport LNG expects its 2.1-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) export plant to return to at least partial service in early- to mid-November following an unexpected shutdown on June 8 caused by a pipeline explosion. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to a record 99.37 bcfd in October, topping the prior record of 99.28 bcfd in September. Daily output was on track to drop about 4.5 bcfd to a preliminary five-month low of 95.7 bcfd on Tuesday. That would be the biggest one-day decline since the 2021 February freeze. Traders, however, noted first of the month preliminary output was almost always unreliable and revised higher later in the month. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 98.6 bcfd this week to 101.4 bcfd next week. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 111.96% to settle at 10051 while prices are down -43.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 455.9 and below same could see a test of 438.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 506, a move above could see prices testing 538.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 438.2-538.4.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for the weather to remain mild for the next two weeks
* That price decline came despite forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks and a projected increase in LNG exports.
* Freeport LNG expects its 2.1-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) export plant to return to at least partial service in early- to mid-November



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.65% at 657.75 as investors bet that central banks would slow the pace of interest rate rises and the dollar weakened. In China, the yuan strengthened after an unverified note circulated on social media saying that the government plans in March to lift strict COVID-19 restrictions that have stifled economic growth. Data showed global factory output weakened in October as recession fears, high inflation and China's zero-COVID policy hurt demand. In China, data beat expectations but still showed that factory activity contracted. Weighing on metals demand in China are COVID prevention measures in numerous cities and a continuing property market slump. Copper output in Chile, fell 2.6% year-on-year to 439,277 tonnes in September, the country's statistics agency INE said. The global copper market is expected to see a deficit of about 325,000 tonnes this year and a surplus of 155,000 tonnes in 2023, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. Continued COVID-19 related restrictions and workforce absenteeism, operational and geotechnical issues, strikes, water restrictions in Chile, lower than expected head grades and community actions in Peru have constrained mine output at a number of operations this year. World apparent refined copper usage is expected to increase by about 2.2% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023, the ICSG said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -22.65% to settle at 4415 while prices are up 10.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 651.5 and below same could see a test of 645.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 662.5, a move above could see prices testing 667.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 645.2-667.2.
* Copper rose as investors bet that central banks would slow the pace of interest rate rises and the dollar weakened.
* In China, the yuan strengthened after the government plans in March to lift strict COVID-19 restrictions that have stifled economic growth.
* Chile copper output falls 2.6% in September


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.01% at 256.15 as Glencore produced 18% less zinc in the first nine months compared with the same period a year before, the company said as it trimmed its full-year output forecast by 6% due to knock-on effects of the Ukraine war. Production cuts in Europe because of the energy crisis and low inventories have sustained zinc prices over the last year, but headwinds emanating from growth and demand slowdown are now a bigger challenge for the market. Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets in China totalled 78,800 mt as of this Monday (October 31), down 18,300 mt from the previous week and 8,200 mt over the weekend. In the Shanghai market, the arrivals were slack while downstream buyers were rather enthusiastic to restock amid falling zinc prices and spot premiums. According to latest data from General Administration of Customs, China imported 390,600 mt of zinc concentrates in September 2022, up 142,000 mt or 3.77% MoM and 53.49% YoY. The imports totalled 2.88 million mt in January-September, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. Imports from Australia were 83,600 mt in September, accounting for 21.41% of the total imports, ranking the first. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -18.79% to settle at 3837 while prices are up 5.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 252.6 and below same could see a test of 248.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 258.5, a move above could see prices testing 260.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 248.9-260.7.
* Zinc prices rose as Glencore produced 18% less zinc in the first nine months compared with the same period a year before.
* Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets in China totalled 78,800 mt, down 18,300 mt
* Zinc concentrate imports in September increased 3.77% MoM



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.91% at 199.4 as China Hongqiao Group will stick to its plan of moving 2 million tonnes of capacity to the country's southwest by the end of next year despite recent electricity supply disruptions there. China's factory activity weakened in October as protracted COVID-19 restrictions disrupted production and subdued demand, a private-sector survey showed, suggesting a weaker economic recovery in the fourth quarter. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 49.2 in October, up from 48.1 in September and slightly above expectations for 49.0. In line with China's official PMI, which unexpectedly fell into contraction last month, waning factory activity weighed on the fragile recovery of the world's second-biggest economy amid a deepening property crisis and weakening demand. Japan's manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in 21 months in October on marked declines in output and overall new orders, as exports were partly hurt by worsening conditions in China and South Korea. The data suggested the outlook for manufacturers at home and trade activity in the broader region was uncertain, posing a headache for Japanese policymakers as they brace for a potential global recession due to monetary tightening around the world. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.47% to settle at 4878 while prices are up 1.8 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 197.9 and below same could see a test of 196.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 200.8, a move above could see prices testing 202.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 196.4-202.2.
* Aluminum rose as China Hongqiao plan to shift aluminium output on track despite Yunnan's power woes
* China's Oct factory activity shrinks as COVID curbs output, demand - Caixin PMI
* Japan Oct factory growth hits 21-month low as China conditions worsen -PMI


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 987.2 as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -16.5 Rupees to end at 1112.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.91% to settle at 1166 while prices are up 0.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 985.6 and below same could see a test of 983.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 990.4, a move above could see prices testing 993.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 983.9-993.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -16.5 Rupees to end at 1112.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices settled flat as exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent
* August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 7216 amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7239.1 Rupees dropped -33 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.72% to settle at 8845 while prices are down -40 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7130 and below same could see a test of 7046 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7300, a move above could see prices testing 7386.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7046-7386.
* Turmeric dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7239.1 Rupees dropped -33 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.53% at 24225 due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. However, reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 2% to 3% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 90.95 Rupees to end at 24174.9 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.37% to settle at 5670 while prices are up 365 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 23870 and below same could see a test of 23515 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24455, a move above could see prices testing 24685.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23515-24685.
* Jeera prices gained due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 90.95 Rupees to end at 24174.9 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 3.99% at 29740 as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks. While cotton output is expected to be low, cotton quality is also likely to be affected by the same factors. Cotton farmers have demanded a minimum support price (MSP) of ?12,000 a quintal during the current season, saying the cost of production has increased significantly, while yields have dropped. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -90 Rupees to end at 30790 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.07% to settle at 1959 while prices are up 1140 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 28920 and below same could see a test of 28090 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 30160, a move above could see prices testing 30570.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 28090-30570.
* Cotton gains as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks
* The pink worm harmed the cotton flock and will have an impact on output.
* USDA projected higher year-end stocks and a decline in exports amid a slowdown in consumption.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -90 Rupees to end at 30790 Rupees.

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