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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 50506 as bargain hunters took advantage of recent losses, although a robust dollar and prospects of aggressive interest rate hikes dominated sentiment. The Fed is largely expected to deliver a 75 basis point rate increase later this month. The U.S. central bank has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 225 basis points in total since March to fight soaring inflation. The ECB is expected to deliver a second big rate hike to tame record-high inflation just as a halt in supplies from a major Russian gas pipeline fans further inflation and recession fears in Europe. U.S. data showed moderate wage growth in August and a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7% suggested the labor market was starting to loosen. US employers hired slightly more workers than expected in August, although the unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 3.7% and wages gained slightly less than anticipated. India's gold imports in August halved from a year ago as volatility in local prices because of movements in overseas benchmark prices and the weak rupee prompted consumers to postpone purchases. The country had imported 61 tonnes of gold in August, compared with 121 tonnes a year earlier. In value terms, August imports fell to $3.52 billion from $6.7 billion a year ago. Australia's Perth Mint increased gold product sales in July by 21.5% from the previous month. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.42% to settled at 10910 while prices up 225 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50163 and below same could see a test of 49821 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50691, a move above could see prices testing 50877.       

Trading Ideas:   

* Gold trading range for the day is 49821-50877.

* Gold gains as bargain hunters took advantage of recent losses, although a robust dollar and prospects of aggressive interest rate hikes dominated sentime

* Hawkish U.S. Fed will keep gold pressured

* Dollar rally to 20-year highs continues

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.66% at 54027 as investors continued to assess the extent that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy in the current cycle. Still, prices remain close to the two-year low of $17.5 hit in the start of the month as major central banks are expected to continue hiking interest rates aggressively. Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously emphasized the US central bank’s priority of bringing inflation down to the 2% level, stating that borrowing costs will be at a restrictive level for a prolonged period even if it hurts growth, sending the greenback to over 20-year highs. The trade deficit in the US narrowed by $10.2 billion to a 9-month low of $70.7 billion in July 2022, broadly in line with market forecasts of $70.3 billion. Total exports were up 0.2% to $259.3 billion while imports went down by 2.9% to $329.9 billion. German industrial output fell in July, while Eurozone Q2 GDP came in at 0.80 percent, higher than a 0.6 percent rise in the second estimate. All eyes now turn to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting due Thursday given talk of a faster pace of tightening. Euro zone bond yields rose today amid increased bets on a 75-basis point rate hike from the ECB to tame record-high inflation. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.74% to settled at 25960 while prices up 881 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 53077 and below same could see a test of 52126 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 54539, a move above could see prices testing 55050.              

Trading Ideas:   

* Silver trading range for the day is 52126-55050.

* Silver edged higher as investors continued to assess the extent that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy in the current cycle.

* The trade deficit in the US narrowed by $10.2 billion to a 9-month low of $70.7 billion in July 2022

* Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously emphasized the US central bank’s priority of bringing inflation down to the 2% level

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -4.66% at 6610 amid persistent concerns about slowing global growth and consequently sluggish demand. Weak customs data from top importer China and renewed coronavirus-induced restrictions in several cities threatened further economic damages and subdued fuel consumption. Oil pared losses after Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to halt all oil and gas supplies if price caps are imposed on Russia's energy resources. The European Union proposed to cap Russian gas only hours later, raising the risk of rationing in some of the world's richest countries this winter. Adding further support were expectations of tighter oil inventories in the United States. U.S. crude stockpiles are expected to have fallen for a fourth consecutive week, declining by an estimated 733,000 barrels in the week to Sept. 2. Credit rating agency Fitch said that the halting of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has increased the likelihood of a recession in the euro zone. The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates sharply when it meets on Thursday. A U.S. Federal Reserve meeting follows on Sept. 21. Weak economic data from China amid its stringent zero-COVID policy has also added to demand woes. China's crude oil imports in August fell 9.4% from a year earlier, customs data showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 39.55% to settled at 13821 while prices down -323 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6458 and below same could see a test of 6305 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6899, a move above could see prices testing 7187.           

Trading Ideas:   

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6305-7187.

* Crude oil dropped amid persistent concerns about slowing global growth and consequently sluggish demand.

* Weak economic data from China amid its stringent zero-COVID policy has also added to demand woes

* China's August crude oil imports drop on lower refinery runs

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.07% at 629.2 as output soared to a record high over the weekend and on forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected. Pressure also seen dragged down by a downwardly revised demand forecast for next week and as domestic supplies continue to break records. Average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 99.7 bcfd so far in September from a record 98.0 bcfd in August, according to data provider Refinitiv. Average US gas demand, including exports, is expected to fall to 92.3 bcfd next week from 96.8 bcfd this week, below Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. In addition, Freeport LNG announced that it would delay the restart of its Quintana export plant to November, leaving more gas in the US for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. In the US West, however, spot power prices surged in California, and other states to their highest since August 2020 after California's grid operator urged consumers to conserve energy for the seventh day in a row on Tuesday. California's electric grid operator imposed rotating outages in August 2020. The reduction in exports from Freeport is a problem for Europe, where most U.S. LNG has gone this year as countries there wean themselves off Russian energy. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.48% to settled at 5303 while prices down -26.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 612.4 and below same could see a test of 595.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 655.4, a move above could see prices testing 681.7.               

Trading Ideas:   

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 595.7-681.7.

* Natural gas dropped as output soared to a record high over the weekend and on forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected.

* Pressure also seen dragged down by a downwardly revised demand forecast for next week and as domestic supplies continue to break records.

* Average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 99.7 bcfd so far in September from a record 98.0 bcfd in August

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 637.45 as aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks and top metal consumer China’s Covid-19 curbs heightened the risk of a global economic slowdown. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates sharply when it meets on Thursday despite an energy crisis, while the Federal Reserve is set to press ahead with its aggressive plan to stamp out inflation. In China, major cities have introduced fresh Covid lockdowns that threatened further economic damages and reduced metals demand. Meanwhile, supply-side issues such as low inventories and reduced output remain, with copper inventories in China bonded warehouses falling to a record low at 142,200 tonnes. In Peru, the world’s second-largest producer of the metal, copper output fell 6.6% year-on-year in July to 195,234 tonnes after two of the country’s largest mines underperformed, Reuters reported. China imported 26.4% more copper in August than a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products into China, the world's leading copper consumer, include anode, refined, alloy and semi-finished copper products. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.73% to settled at 5926 while prices down -3.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 633 and below same could see a test of 628.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 642.5, a move above could see prices testing 647.5.               

Trading Ideas:   

* Copper trading range for the day is 628.5-647.5.

* Copper slips on slowdown fears

* In China, major cities have introduced fresh Covid lockdowns that threatened further economic damages and reduced metals demand.

* China August unwrought copper imports at 498,188.6 tonnes

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.75% at 280.7 as the U.S. dollar strengthened further amid worries about a recession in major economies. China's central bank saying it would cut the amount of foreign exchange reserves, a move seen to help limit yuan weakness. The dollar marched higher after report on the U.S. services industry in August reinforced the view that the economy was not in recession, while the euro and rate-sensitive Japanese yen continued to tumble. Meanwhile, worries over global economic growth further clouded metals' demand, outweighing supply concerns spurred by production cuts in Europe. China's exports growth weakened in August, as surging inflation crippled overseas demand and fresh COVID curbs and heatwaves disrupted production, reviving downside risks for the economy. Exports rose 7.1% in August from a year earlier, slowing from an 18.0% gain in July, official customs data showed. The reading missed expectations for a 12.8% increase. Outbound shipments outperformed other economic drivers in 2022 but now face growing challenges as external demand wanes. China's slower growth is in part due to unflattering comparisons to strong exports last year, but also worsened by more COVID restrictions as infections spiked and heatwaves disrupted factory output in southwestern areas. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.91% to settled at 1603 while prices down -5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 278.4 and below same could see a test of 276.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 283.3, a move above could see prices testing 286.             

Trading Ideas:   

* Zinc trading range for the day is 276.2-286.

* Zinc prices lost ground as the U.S. dollar strengthened further amid worries about a recession in major economies.

* China's central bank saying it would cut the amount of foreign exchange reserves, a move seen to help limit yuan weakness.

* Meanwhile, worries over global economic growth further clouded metals' demand, outweighing supply concerns spurred by production cuts in Europe.

Aluminium

yesterday settled down by -1% at 197.4 as faltering global economic growth weakened the outlook for demand and boosted the dollar. China exported 540,448.9 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, including primary, alloy and semi-finished aluminium products, in August, up 10.2% from 490,285.80 tonnes the same month last year. Weaker than expected trade data in China, the biggest metals consumer, added to a grim picture for the global economy. Large inflows of aluminium into LME-registered warehouses have eased supply concerns, flipping quickly delivered cash aluminium from a premium to a discount against the three-month contract. LME inventories increased to 309,500 tonnes, from 277,050 on Monday, but are still far below recent levels. The amount of aluminium held in Japanese ports and Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) warehouses has also increased in recent weeks. Reflecting weakening demand, global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers lower premiums for primary metal shipments. China's exports growth weakened in August, as surging inflation crippled overseas demand and fresh COVID curbs and heatwaves disrupted production, reviving downside risks for the economy. Exports rose 7.1% in August from a year earlier, slowing from an 18.0% gain in July, official customs data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.45% to settled at 5110 while prices down -2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 196.7 and below same could see a test of 195.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 198.9, a move above could see prices testing 200.2.         

Trading Ideas:   

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 195.8-200.2.

* Aluminium prices dropped as faltering global economic growth weakened the outlook for demand and boosted the dollar.

* Weaker than expected trade data in China, the biggest metals consumer, added to a grim picture for the global economy.

* China exported 540,448.9 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in August, up 10.2% from last month.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.44% at 1009.2 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 169.93 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decline of over 33%. In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 16.8 Rupees to end at 1143.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.94% to settled at 1461 while prices down -4.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1004.3 and below same could see a test of 999.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1016.9, a move above could see prices testing 1024.7.               

Trading Ideas:   

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 999.5-1024.7.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 16.8 Rupees to end at 1143.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

* However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.

* In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.28% at 7204 amid profit booking on report of better sowing. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-June 2022 has rose by 23.44 percent at 49,435.38 tonnes as compared to 40,049.06 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206.00 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,138.35 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,576.68 tonnes in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.23%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7399 Rupees dropped -7.75 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.07% to settled at 8315 while prices down -20 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7180 and below same could see a test of 7158 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7228, a move above could see prices testing 7254.            

Trading Ideas:   

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7158-7254.

* Turmeric dropped amid profit booking on report of better sowing.

* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.

* In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7399 Rupees dropped -7.75 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.23% at 24830 amid profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 42.98 percent at 47,190.98 tonnes as compared to 82,762.08 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 44.94%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. In the month of May 2022 around 14,894.62 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 20,693.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a decrease of 28.03%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -207.05 Rupees to end at 24405.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.09% to settled at 6027 while prices down -310 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24595 and below same could see a test of 24355 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25180, a move above could see prices testing 25525.       

Trading Ideas:   

* Jeera trading range for the day is 24355-25525.

* Jeera dropped amid profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks

* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month

*  All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -207.05 Rupees to end at 24405.45 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.05% at 36450 as pressure seen amid higher crop size coupled with low demand amidst global economic weakness. India’s cotton output for the season 2022-23 is likely to touch 375 lakh bales (each of 170 kg), given no climatic adversities affect the crop during October, sources said. Cotton area is estimated at 126 lakh hectares till September 2 — up 8-9 per cent from 117 lakh hectares last year. Atul Ganatra, President, Cotton Association of India (CAI), stated that the cotton crop condition in India was "very good and if everything goes well, we are expecting 350 lakh bales +/– 25 lakh bales." The crop size may touch 375 lakh bales if there are no rains during October. If it rains during October, when the cotton bolls are open in the irrigated fields, it may hamper the quality. In its monthly supply-demand report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year. Hot and dry weather conditions in key growing areas in the United States have threatened the condition of the natural fiber crop and raised supply concerns. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -240 Rupees to end at 43090 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.39% to settled at 632 while prices down -20 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 36180 and below same could see a test of 35900 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 36820, a move above could see prices testing 37180.       

Trading Ideas:   

* Cotton trading range for the day is 35900-37180.

* Cotton seen pressured amid higher crop size coupled with low demand amidst global economic weakness.

* India’s cotton output for the season 2022-23 is likely to touch 375 lakh bales

* Cotton area is estimated at 126 lakh hectares till September 2 — up 8-9 per cent from 117 lakh hectares last year.

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -240 Rupees to end at 43090 Rupees.

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