Short Term Portfolio December 2021 By GEPL Capital
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PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION
Voltas Limited
VOLTAS: CMP :- 1246.60 Weekly ROC (7.07%)
Observation
* Voltas entered into a corrective phase after testing the high of 1356 in the month of October 2021 and corrected by almost 16% off the highs.
* On the weekly chart we can see that the prices moved higher after finding support near the 20 week SMA (1161) and the 50% retracement level of the rise from 955-1356.
* On the Daily chart we can see a double bottom formation, currently the prices are placed above the 20 Day SMA and are moving higher.
* On the indicator front the RSI plotted on the weekly chart can be seen moving higher after forming a bullish hinge near the 50 mark, indicating increasing bullish momentum in the prices.
* Looking at the price action we believe that this stock is a prefect BUY candidate, going ahead 1357 (Life Time High) will act as a hurdle, if the prices manage to move above this level, we can expect the bullish momentum to accelerate even further and take the prices higher towards the 1471 (78.6% extension level of the rise from 427.45-1132 projected from 918)
* The Key support level for the stock is placed at 1131 (Week low) if the stock breaches below the 1131 mark our bullish view will be negated.
Tata Consultancy Services
TCS: CMP :- 3640.45 Weekly ROC (5.62%)
Observation
* TCS after testing the high of 3989 in the month of October 2021 entered a corrective phase and fell about 15% off its life time highs.
* On the weekly time frame, we can see that the stock halted its correction near the previous swing high of 3390 in the last week and the prices gained bullish momentum and gave consolidation breakout and sustained above its 5 week high and the 20 Week SMA.
* On the daily chart we can see that the prices have formed a Double Bottom formation near 3390 levels and moved up and gave breakout with volume confirmation.
* On the indicator front the RSI plotted on the weekly time frame has been above the 50 mark since May 2020, currently it can be seen moving higher after forming a bullish hinge near the same, indicating increasing bullish momentum in the prices.
* Looking at the price action and the technical parameters mentioned above, we can conclude that the stock is moving higher after a correction, we expect this momentum to take prices higher towards 3998 (Life Time high) if the prices sustain above this level, we might see it move higher towards 4297 (61.8% extension level of the rise from 1506– 3399 projected from 3132).
* Our bullish view will be negated if the prices breach below the 3385 mark (Recent swing low).
Infosys
INFY: CMP :- 1735 Weekly ROC (2.60%)
Observation
* On the monthly chart we can see that the INFY was basically in a sideways trend when there was a broad based selling across the indices and stocks. This tell us about the underlying strength of the stock for the medium to long term.
* Coming down to the weekly time frame we can see that the prices have been moving in range between the 1848– 1646 since August 2021.
* On the weekly chart we shown the Bollinger bands wherein we can see that the prices broke above the 20 Week SMA in the month of June 2020 and have sustained above it ever since with mild whipsaws.
* On the indicator front the RSI plotted on the weekly chart moved above the 50 mark around the same time the Prices move above the 20 week SMA. Currently it can be seen moving higher level, after forming a bullish hinge near the 60 mark, indicating increase in bullish momentum in the prices.
* Going ahead the 1848 (Life Time high) will act as a resistance zone, if the prices sustains above the 1848, we can see the prices move higher and test the 1992 (61.8% extension level of the rise from 1311-1848 projected from 1661), if the price sustain above the 1992 mark we might see the prices move higher towards the 2082 (78.6% extension level of the rise from 1311-1848 projected from 1661).
* The Risk reward factor for this setup is really good and we would like to maintain the 1660 mark as a strict stop loss level.
Central Depository Services Ltd
CDSL: CMP: 1522 Weekly ROC (7.63%)
Observation
* On the weekly time frame we can see that the prices have been moving higher since Jun 2021 and all this time the prices were finding support at the 20 Week SMA.
* In the week that passed by the prices formed a strong bullish candle and completely engulfed the previous week candle, after bouncing off the 20 Week SMA.
* On the indicator front the RSI plotted on the weekly time frame can be seen placed above the 50 mark, ever since the prices broke above the 20 Week SMA. Currently it can be seen holding the 60 level, as the prices bounce off the 20 Week SMA.
* Looking at the price action, we believe that this stock is a prefect BUY candidate, going ahead the stock is moving towards the 1783 levels (61.8% extension of the rise from 476-1579 projected from 1102), if the prices manage to move above this level, we can expect the prices to move higher and test the 1968 (78.6% extension of the rise from 476-1579 projected from 1102)
* The Key support level for the stock is placed at 1346 (20 Week SMA), if the prices managed to breach below this level, our bullish view will be negated.
Hindustan Unilever Ltd
HINDUNILVR: CMP :- 2343.65 Weekly ROC (0.37%)
Observation
* HINDUNILVR made a high of 2859.3 in the September 2021 after that the stocks saw a correction of almost 20% to reach a level of 2284.
* Around 2300 the stock has a confluence of supports from the 100 Week SMA and a rising trend line from 2019 lows. The Doji candlestick formation at the supports confirms the significance of the support. The price action suggests that the stock has placed near major support zone and it has limited down side risk.
* Every time the weekly RSI of the stock has been taking support near 40 - 45 range since October 2018. Currently the weekly RSI is giving a bullish hinge near 40 levels which shows signs of positive reversal. Looking at the price action the stock has a potential to move upwards from current levels.
* Going ahead we expect the price to move towards 2530 (20 Week SMA) followed by 2730 (Multiple touch points level) and eventually 2859 (Life Time High).
* Stop loss for this trade is 2220 (Multiple touch points level) on closing basis.
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