Rupee poised for sizeable losses on bets of more Fed rate hikes
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MUMBAI - The Indian rupee was headed lower against the dollar on Monday after a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report prompted investors to bet on more Federal Reserve rate increases.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward suggested that the rupee would open at 82.35-82.40 to the dollar compared with 81.8275 in the previous session.
The dollar index and Treasury yields soared on Friday after the U.S. economy added more than two-and-a-half times the number of jobs than what economists had expected. The unemployment rate declined to a more than 50-tyear low.
The data made it almost certain that the Fed would raise interest rates again at its March meeting, according to CME futures, while the probability of a hike at the May meeting almost doubled. The Fed's terminal rate expectations rose slightly above 5%, according to futures.
The jobs report provided evidence of continued economic expansion in January, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
"We continue to expect two more 25 basis points fed funds rate hikes in March and May, and we continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023."
Goldman Sachs's call for no rate cuts this year compares to CME futures indicating shallow rate cuts later this year.
The 2-year Treasury yield rose more in Asia trading, reaching 4.35%. It is now almost 30 bps higher from last week's low.
The Thai baht, the Korean won and the Indonesian rupiah were down 1% to 1.7%.
It was quite likely that rupee could fall below 82.50 on Monday, considering the extent of the losses in Asian currencies, a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.
"Oil prices are a big positive for the rupee, but we doubt that will have a large impact," the trader said.
Brent crude futures declined 2.7% on Friday to near $80 per barrel.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.46; onshore one-month forward premium at 12 paise
** USD/INR NSE Feb futures settled on Friday at 82.0150
** USD/INR Feb forward premium at 8.0 paise
** Dollar index at 103.140
** Brent crude futures at $80 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.56%
** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures down 0.1% at 17,829
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $443.9 mln worth of Indian shares on Feb. 2
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $118.1 mln worth of Indian bonds on Feb. 2
