09-05-2023 08:54 AM | Source: Reuters
Rupee to contend with weaker yuan, higher US yields
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The Indian rupee is likely to open flat-to-lower on Tuesday on the back of a decline in the Chinese yuan following weak data from Asia's largest economy and an uptick in U.S. Treasury yields.

Non-deliverable forwards (NDF) indicate the rupee will open at around 82.75-82.78 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 82.7475 in the previous session.

The offshore yuan dropped to 7.2940 to the dollar after a private sector survey showed China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in eight months in August.

Other Asian currencies declined alongside the yuan.

Taking into account how Asia is doing, the rupee should decline at open, a forex trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.

"(USD/INR) NDF, however, has not reacted much (to the fall in the yuan), which is probably a reflection of how little appetite there is to take it higher."

The rupee's movement in the last few sessions has been in a narrow 82.50 to 82.80 range on expectations of the Reserve Bank of India's intervention and dollar demand from corporates, keeping the currency within this range.

Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. yield inched up to near 4.20% in the Asia session. While recent U.S. data has indicated that inflation is cooling off to an extent, it has not had much of on impact on longer maturity yields.

"The resilience in U.S. Treasury yields to end last week seems to reflect some positioning for a high-for-longer rate outlook," Yeap Jun Rong, a Singapore-based market strategist at IG, said.

The probability of a September rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve remains low at less than 10%

Oil prices dipped slightly in Asia, having reached their highest level this year. Asian equities dropped and U.S. equity futures indicated a slightly lower opening following the Labor Day holiday.

KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.84; onshore one-month forward premium at 8.25 paisa ** USD/INR NSE September futures settled on Monday at 82.77 ** USD/INR September forward premium at 6.5 paisa ** Dollar index up at 104.24 ** Brent crude futures down 0.3% at $88.7 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.21% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $215.1mln worth of Indian shares on Sep. 1

** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $86.7mln worth of Indian bonds on Sep. 1