Rupee eases as U.S. data boosts dollar ahead of risk events
The Indian rupee declined on Monday as Asian currencies fell at the start of a week packed with high-profile events, including a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, with a stronger dollar weighing on sentiment.
The rupee dropped to 82.63 per dollar by 10:33 a.m. IST, versus its previous close of 82.27.
The currency has underperformed its Asian counterparts over the fortnight on dollar outflows and likely equity repositioning, with traders keeping an eye on the stock market's performance.
Indian shares dipped 0.2%, along with Asian equities and currencies, as the dollar index was steady around the 105.100 mark.
The Chinese yuan has strengthened 2.8% over the fortnight, while the rupee has declined 1.2%.
U.S. producer prices data on Friday came in stronger than expected, making the case for the Fed to keep interest rates elevated. The focus will now be on U.S. November retail inflation numbers due on Tuesday, followed by the Fed policy decision the next day.
Markets could be volatile "if the U.S. CPI print surprises on the upside and disrupts the currently dominant narrative that the Fed will deliver smaller hikes, albeit perhaps for longer," wrote HDFC Bank economists.
For the rupee, deals and equity listings scheduled for the week could bring in some inflows, but any unpleasant surprises by the Fed could lead to a rush to the dollar, they added.
The U.S. central bank is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points, but the focus will be on the central bank's updated economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.
Bank of England and European Central Bank policy meetings follow later this week.
In India, November CPI data is due after market hours on Monday. A Reuters poll showed it likely cooled to a nine-month low of 6.40%.
Barclays saw a risk of higher rates in India and said any upside CPI surprise could become a catalyst for it.