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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee is expected to gain amid softness in the dollar. The probability of a pause in September Fed policy has increased after Fed Chair Powel indicated that the Fed would remain datadependent on future rate moves. The CME FedWatch toll suggests more than 77% probability of pause in the September meeting. Meanwhile focus shifts towards today’s key ECB meeting and US advance GDP numbers.

• US$INR is likely to face the hurdle near the 20 day SMA at 82.10 and weaken towards 81.80. Only a move below 81.80 it would weaken further towards the pair towards 81.60.

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro is likely to trade on bullish bias amid softness in dollar. Further expectation of 25 bps hike in today’s policy meeting could support the Euro to rise back towards 1.1120. Meanwhile, traders will be waiting for more clues on the futures rate path. EURINR is expected to rise towards 91.20, as long as it trades above 90.50. Above 91.20 it would test 91.50 level.

• Pound is expected to rise towards 1.30 mark amid softness in the dollar. The bullish cross over of 20 and 50 day EMA could support the pair to hold its gains as long as it trades above the 1.29 mark. GBPINR is likely to move higher towards 106.50, as long as it trades above the 20 day SMA at 105.70

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