Rollover Analysis Report - July 2023 By Religare Broking Ltd
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Nifty
Nifty futures has rolled at around 76% vs 71% which is higher with respect to the previous series. The Open Interest for the new contract is higher by around 4 lakh w.r.t to the last month contract implying fresh long positions in the Index. Major Long rolls was seen into the July futures with an average price of around 18800 which becomes a pivot for the month. Till the time Nifty trades above 18800, the resistance might only be near 19300-19500 levels. We expect the nifty to find strong support at 18800 levels for July series. FIIs Long ratio is now at 66% vs 57% in Index futures implying less of hedged short positions into the July series. With the VIX being at lower levels of 10-12% buying in Call options seems to be the favored trade in the market. FIIs have bought around 5000 Cr in cash market for the June month. With higher Market wide positions with respect to last month along with fresh long positions in July series the Index remains ‘BUY on Dips’ till 18800 is protected.
Bank Nifty
Banknifty futures rolled at around 79% vs 78%; higher than the last series. Banknifty futures have seen additional positioning of around 2 lakh w.r.t. the last month. This was evident in the last few days as short covering in June contracts and fresh longs in July at around 43800 levels. Banknifty has out-performed the Nifty in the last two sessions, we believe this out-performance to excel more in the July series as well. For this series, ratio wise (Banknifty/Nifty) has a resistance at 2.38 and support at 2.30 The ratio between Banknifty and Nifty currently at around 2.34. The major support for Banknifty would be around 43400 levels. We expect Banknifty to be in 43400-45500 levels for the first fortnight of July series.
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