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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.13% at 47011 amid a firm dollar as investors turned their attention to U.S. Fed chief Jerome Powell’s testimony for cues on monetary policy. The Fed signalled interest rates could rise in 2023. They clawed back some losses as the dollar rally paused and traders used the dip to buy. Reflecting those jitters, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.3% on Monday. U.S. home sales fell for a fourth straight month in May as record high prices amid low inventory frustrated potential buyers, a trend that could persist for while, with builders unable to deliver more houses because of expensive lumber. Existing home sales dropped 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.80 million units last month, back to their pre-pandemic level, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday. Sales fell in the Northeast, West and the densely populated South, but rose in the Midwest. Climate change poses a “significant risk” to the global economy and the financial system, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said, adding that large swaths of the United States could be disrupted. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.32% to settled at 10907 while prices down -63 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46837 and below same could see a test of 46664 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47215, a move above could see prices testing 47420.

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 46664-47420.

* Gold prices were little changed amid a firm dollar as investors turned their attention to U.S. Fed chief Jerome Powell’s testimony for cues on monetary policy.

* The Fed signalled interest rates could rise in 2023. They clawed back some losses as the dollar rally paused and traders used the dip to buy.

* U.S. home sales fell for a fourth straight month in May as record high prices amid low inventory frustrated potential buyers

Silver           

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.36% at 67515 as investors await testimony from Fed Chair Powell for further guidance on the recent surprise shift in the central bank's policy outlook. The US central bank has sharply raised its forecasts for inflation this year and flagged two rate increases by the end of 2023. The scale of the change in outlook came to benefit bullish investors who expect that Jay Powell and his rate-setting colleagues will need to think about scaling back quantitative easing to prevent the US economy from overheating. On top of that, comments from James Bullard, president of the St Louis Fed, about the prospects of an even earlier interest rate increase have supercharged existing upward momentum for the greenback. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said he wants to keep the U.S. central bank’s benchmark short-term interest rate near zero at least through the end of 2023 to allow the labor market to return to its pre-pandemic strength. "The vast majority of Americans want to work, and I am not ready to write them off – and I want to give them the chance to work," Kashkari told in his first public comments since the end of the Fed's policy meeting earlier this week. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.13% to settled at 9762 while prices down -247 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67099 and below same could see a test of 66682 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67992, a move above could see prices testing 68468.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 66682-68468.

* Silver edged lower as investors await testimony from Fed Chair Powell for further guidance on the recent surprise shift in the central bank's policy outlook.

* Fed Kashkari said he wants to keep the U.S. central bank’s benchmark short-term interest rate near zero at least through the end of 2023

* The US central bank has sharply raised its forecasts for inflation this year and flagged two rate increases by the end of 2023.

Crude oil                  

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.22% at 5418 weighed down by speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies will likely agree to increase crude production. OPEC+ is discussing a further gradual increase in oil output from August as oil prices rise on demand recovery, but no decision had been taken on the exact volume yet, two OPEC+ sources familiar with the talks said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is returning 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to the market from May through July as part of a plan to gradually unwind last year's record oil output curbs. OPEC+ meets next on July 1. "It is highly possible to increase gradually from August," said one of the sources, adding that no final decision had been made and the exact volumes are yet to be agreed on. The price gap between the world's two most actively traded oil contracts narrowed to its lowest in more than seven months, demonstrating that U.S. oil output is still in the COVID-19 doldrums with the market likely to remain undersupplied. North Sea Brent futures traded at a premium of $1.89 to U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), its narrowest since Nov. 11. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.81% to settled at 8104 while prices down -12 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5384 and below same could see a test of 5349 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5463, a move above could see prices testing 5507.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5349-5507.

* Crude oil dropped weighed down by speculation that the OPEC and its allies will likely agree to increase crude production.

* OPEC+ is discussing the possibility of further boosting oil output from August, no decision on volumes as of yet - OPEC+

* Russia weighs proposing OPEC+ output hike at next week's meeting

Nat.Gas           

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.67% at 242.3 on expectations the increase in global gas prices to their highest in years would boost U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to fresh record highs this summer. U.S. speculators boosted their long futures and options positions on the NYMEX last week by the most since June 2020 to their highest since November 2018 as soaring global gas prices prompt buyers around the world to keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce. Gas prices in Europe and Asia both traded over $10 per mmBtu, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands reaching its highest since January 2014. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 91.0 bcfd in May but still well below the monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With the coming of seasonally hotter summer weather, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 87.3 bcfd this week to 91.9 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 9.8 bcfd so far in June, down from 10.8 bcfd in May and an all-time high of 11.5 bcfd in April. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.67% to settled at 6120 while prices up 6.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 237.7 and below same could see a test of 233.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 245.4, a move above could see prices testing 248.5.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 233.1-248.5.

* Natural gas edged up on expectations the increase in global gas prices to their highest in years would boost LNG exports to fresh record highs this summer.

* U.S. speculators boosted their long futures and options positions on the NYMEX last week by the most since June 2020 to their highest since November 2018

* U.S. natgas output to rise, demand to fall in 2021 – EIA

Copper           

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.85% at 711.4 after update that the global world refined copper market showed a 19,000 tonnes deficit in March, compared with a 108,000 tonnes surplus in February, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 3 months of the year, the market was in a 129,000 tonnes surplus compared with a 154,000 tonnes surplus in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in March was 2.10 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.12 million tonnes. China’s National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced to release the first batch of national metal reserves, with the total amount of copper at 20,000 mt. Domestic copper consumption is 1.15 million mt per month, and the released 20,000 mt of reserves account for about 2%. Only the companies related to copper processing and manufacturing are qualified to be the bidders, and each bidding section is 100 mt of copper. The copper reserves come from the warehouses in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Henan, Shandong, Tianjin, Ningxia, and other regions, which is in accordance with the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilising prices of commodities. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.67% to settled at 2739 while prices up 12.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 701.7 and below same could see a test of 691.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 717.1, a move above could see prices testing 722.6.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 691.8-722.6.

* Copper prices gained after update that the global world refined copper market showed a 19,000 tonnes deficit in March

* China to release 20,000 mt of copper reserves

* China May copper exports hit 14-month peak as traders cash in on LME price jump

Zinc           

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.02% at 232.15 recovered all losses to setle flat as the global zinc market moved into a deficit of 26,900 tonnes in April from a revised surplus of 700 tonnes the previous month, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a surplus of 2,100 tonnes in March. During the first four months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed a surplus of 31,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 256,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc are produced and consumed each year. The market expected that around 20,000 mt of zinc reserves would be released in the first batch or month, which was lower than the actual amount. The current monthly zinc consumption stands at 530,000-550,000 mt, of which the released reserves will account for around 5.5%. Domestic zinc ingot inventory is around 122,900 mt, and the released reserves takes up 24% of it. Zinc consumption will enter the off-peak season in Q3 2021, and the first batch of reserve release may weigh on the market. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that inflation would fall back to the Fed's long-term goal and continued to be optimistic about employment prospects. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -30.05% to settled at 759 while prices down -0.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 231 and below same could see a test of 229.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 233.8, a move above could see prices testing 235.5.          

Trading Ideas:            

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 229.9-235.5.

*  Zinc prices recovered all losses to setle flat as the global zinc market moved into a deficit of 26,900 tonnes in April

*  China to release 30,000 mt of zinc reserves

*  China May zinc output +1.2% y/y at 527,000 tonnes - stats bureau

Nickel         

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.79% at 1321.7 amid strong Chinese demand and near record-low inventories in warehouses tracked by ShFE. The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 15,600 tonnes in April from a shortfall of 17,100 tonnes in March, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. During the first four months of the year, the nickel market saw a deficit of 34,900 tonnes compared with a 48,000 tonnes surplus in the same period last year, Lisbon-based INSG added. Signals from the Fed that it would start raising interest rates sooner than expected sent prices of riskier assets like equities and metals tumbling last week. Climate change poses a “significant risk” to the global economy and the financial system, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said, adding that large swaths of the United States could be disrupted. The economic reckoning with the effects of climate change - everything from how people work to what crops can be grown to property damage and capital investment - may also be unevenly felt across communities, Daly said in remarks prepared for delivery at a virtual event at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -47.23% to settled at 695 while prices up 23.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1309.1 and below same could see a test of 1296.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1333.2, a move above could see prices testing 1344.7.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1296.5-1344.7.

* Nickel rose amid strong Chinese demand and near record-low inventories in warehouses tracked by ShFE.

* The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 15,600 tonnes in April from a shortfall of 17,100 tonnes in March

* During the first four months of the year, the nickel market saw a deficit of 34,900 tonnes compared with a 48,000 tonnes surplus in the same period last year

Aluminium         

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.47% at 190.5 as Global primary aluminium output rose to 5.744 million tonnes in May from revised 5.543 million tonnes in April, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. On fundamentals, the current consumption shows signs of transition to the off-season, but the reduction of aluminium production in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia makes the turning point of destocking move backward, and social aluminium ingot inventories are still in the decreasing cycle. China's alumina output rose 11.2% from a year earlier to 6.6 million tonnes in May, the highest on record, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The release of 50,000 mt of aluminium ingots meets the market expectation at a relatively lower level. U.S. home sales fell for a fourth straight month in May as record high prices amid low inventory frustrated potential buyers, a trend that could persist for while, with builders unable to deliver more houses because of expensive lumber. Existing home sales dropped 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.80 million units last month, back to their pre-pandemic level, the National Association of Realtors said. Sales fell in the Northeast, West and the densely populated South, but rose in the Midwest. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -32.26% to settled at 1449 while prices down -0.9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 189.4 and below same could see a test of 188.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 192.1, a move above could see prices testing 193.6. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 188.2-193.6.

* Aluminium prices dropped as Global primary aluminium output rose to 5.744 million tonnes in May from revised 5.543 million tonnes in April

* China to release 50,000 mt of aluminium reserves

* China May alumina output rose 11.2% year-on-year to 6.6 million tonnes - stats bureau

Mentha oil           

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.65% at 1014.1 as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. However in recent session prices gained due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Overall post-lock-down demand will be likely to improve as demand from the health industry will likely continue also as per CIMAP. Due to favourable weather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Mentha exhibits important biological activities. For that reason, it has been used through the years as a remedy for respiratory diseases like bronchitis, sinusitis, tuberculosis, and the common cold. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -23.4 Rupees to end at 1108.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -28.57% to settled at 10 while prices down -6.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1002.4 and below same could see a test of 990.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1022, a move above could see prices testing 1029.8.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 990.6-1029.8.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -23.4 Rupees to end at 1108.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil dropped as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. 

* Fresh season arrival started as the lock-down started to ease.

* Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days.

Soyabean           

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 2.68% at 7079 tracking rise in overseas prices on renewed buying by top importer China and on concerns that dry conditions in the western Midwest and Plains could dent yields despite good weekend rains across the region. Uncertainty about U.S. crop weather has lent support at times as traders weighed widespread rains over the weekend against longer term forecasts for drier conditions. Weekend showers offered relief in many of the driest areas, but more rain is needed. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed exporters sold 336,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year, on the largest sale to the country in 4-1/2 months. Exporters also sold 120,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year, according to the USDA. European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 14.87 million tonnes by June 20, data published by the European Commission showed. The Soy Food Promotion and Welfare Association (SFPWA), which represents soybean food processing industries in India has urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to allow the processing industry to import 50,000 tonnes of food specialty soybeans from the US duty-free as prices of domestic soybeans have increased 50% during the past six months. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 201 Rupees to 7337 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.4% to settled at 37110 while prices up 185 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6913 and below same could see a test of 6748 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7250, a move above could see prices testing 7422.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6748-7422.

* Soyabean gains tracking rise in overseas prices on renewed buying by top importer China and on concerns that dry conditions could dent yields

* USDA confirmed exporters sold 336,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year

* European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 14.87 million tonnes by June 20.

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  201 Rupees to 7337 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil           

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 2.35% at 1269.4 lifted by strength in rival Chicago soyoil on solid demand from China. India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period. India has put on hold a proposal to reduce import taxes on edible oils as cooking oil prices started to fall in the world market after hitting record highs, two government and one industry officials told. India slashed the base import prices of palm oil and soybean oil for a fortnight, the government said in a statement, as prices of the cooking oils fell sharply in the global market. Imports would remain elevated even in June as many states are easing lockdowns and allowing restaurants to reopen. A coalition of nine Argentine port worker unions went on a nationwide 24-hour strike to press for vaccinations against the coronavirus. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1304.7 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.89% to settled at 36360 while prices up 29.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1251 and below same could see a test of 1234 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1279, a move above could see prices testing 1290.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1234-1290.

* Ref soyoil prices gained lifted by strength in rival Chicago soyoil on solid demand from China.

* India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22

*  A coalition of nine Argentine port worker unions went on a nationwide 24-hour strike to press for vaccinations against the coronavirus.

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1304.7 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil        

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 2.1% at 1050.4 as a decline in prices this month lifted Chinese import margins, but Indonesia's plan to revise its palm oil export levy capped gains. Palm oil prices rose in line with much improved Chinese import margins for Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 following the recent reversal, as well on expectations for much improved demand over the third quarter this year. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June 1-20 rose 11.2% to 962,184 tonnes from the same period last month, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Top producer Indonesia announced that it would change the levy structure for palm oil exports, cutting the ceiling rate for crude palm oil levies to $175 per tonne from $255. The move is expected to improve profit margin for exporters, Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said, although other groups felt the frequent changes in rules were hurting demand. Indonesia's decision to change the levy structure for palm oil exports is expected to improve profit margin for exporters, Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said, though other groups felt the frequent changes in rules are hurting demand. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 14.2 Rupees to end at 1063 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.36% to settled at 2099 while prices up 21.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1028.3 and below same could see a test of 1006.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1071.1, a move above could see prices testing 1091.9.

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1006.3-1091.9.

* Crude palm oil gains on boost to Chinese import margins from recent weak prices

* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June 1-20 rose 11.2% to 962,184 tonnes from the same period last month

* Indonesia's decision to change the levy structure for palm oil exports is expected to improve profit margin for exporters, GAPKI said.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 14.2 Rupees to end at 1063 Rupees.

Mustard Seed           

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.33% at 6877 as corona related problems started reducing, giving stockists, investors, traders and farmers decent returns. The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. However upside seen limited pushed lower by flagging global overseas prices amid forecasts for beneficial rains across the Canadian Prairie. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 206 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.91% to settled at 47990 while prices up 90 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6780 and below same could see a test of 6683 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6983, a move above could see prices testing 7089.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6683-7089.

* Mustard seed prices gains as corona related problems started reducing, giving stockists, investors, traders and farmers decent returns.

* The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.

* However upside seen limited pushed lower by flagging global overseas prices amid forecasts for beneficial rains across the Canadian Prairie.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 206 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.

 Turmeric          

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.42% at 7580 on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7501.25 Rupees gained 15.4 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.3% to settled at 11050 while prices up 106 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7514 and below same could see a test of 7450 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7636, a move above could see prices testing 7694.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7450-7694.

* Turmeric prices gained on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. 

*  However upside seen limited as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.

* Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. 

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7501.25 Rupees gained 15.4 Rupees.

Jeera           

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.01% at 13480 on short covering after prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 75.55 Rupees to end at 13720 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.96% to settled at 6756 while prices up 135 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13380 and below same could see a test of 13280 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13540, a move above could see prices testing 13600.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13280-13600.

* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases.

*  As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.

* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 75.55 Rupees to end at 13720 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton           

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 23890 as some support seen tracking overseas prices amid concerns over the weather in top growing regions. Meanwhile, heavy rains over the weekend from Tropical Storm Claudette threatened the natural fiber crop in the U.S. Delta region. There are concerns that remain about the size of the U.S. crop in 2021, with how many acres have been planted and on the flip side demand is still good overseas. Falling arrival numbers of raw cotton due to the lean supply season and thin stocks lying with ginners and farmers has resulted in supply crunch in the market. For the first time in six years, Punjab’s area under cotton cultivation this kharif season has crossed the 3 lakh hectare mark. This is an increase of 17% over 2020, when cotton was sown on 2.5 lakh hectare. The state, however, is still 41% short of the golden phase in 2011-12 when the area under the traditional cash crop was 5.2 lakh hectare. In 2015, cotton was sown on 3.25 lakh hectares in southern districts. After a devastating period of the worst whitefly attack on cotton that year, farmers turned away from sowing the crop. Before 2014, over 4 lakh hectare was under cotton. In spot market, Cotton gained by 130 Rupees to end at 24240 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -38% to settled at 1907 while prices up 80 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 23800 and below same could see a test of 23710 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 23950, a move above could see prices testing 24010.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 23710-24010.

* Cotton prices traded in range as some support seen tracking overseas prices amid concerns over the weather in top growing regions.

* Meanwhile, heavy rains over the weekend from Tropical Storm Claudette threatened the natural fiber crop in the U.S. Delta region.

*  In Punjab, for first time in six years, area under cotton crosses 3 lakh hectare

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 130 Rupees to end at 24240 Rupees.

Chana           

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.33% at 5171 as chana procurement has resumed in the state after remaining suspended for more than a month due to restrictions imposed by the government in view of the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic and inclement weather this month. Support also seen as pulses acreage could witness a decline during the forthcoming kharif season after the Centre opened up imports of tur, urad and moong. Government amended the pulses import policy by moving tur, urad and moong from ‘restricted’ to ‘free’ category. The Commerce Ministry in a notification said the revision in pulses import policy is with immediate effect and will for the period up to October 31, 2021. Further, import consignments of these items with Bill of Landing issued on or before October 31 shall not be allowed by Customs beyond November 30, the notification said. “The Open General License (OGL) under the free import policy will enable the traders to quickly import the required quantity of tur, moong and urad to fulfil the shortage of the pulses. We are expecting minimum 250,000 tonnes of tur, 150,000 tonnes of urad and around 50,000-75,000 tonnes of moong beans to be imported primarily from Myanmar, African, and the neighbouring countries.” In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 113.9 Rupees to end at 5100 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.69% to settled at 120010 while prices up 17 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5139 and below same could see a test of 5107 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5198, a move above could see prices testing 5225.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 5107-5225.

* Chana prices gained as chana procurement has resumed in the state after remaining suspended for more than a month

* Support also seen as pulses acreage could witness a decline during the forthcoming kharif season after the Centre opened up imports

* The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses.

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 113.9 Rupees to end at 5100 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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