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Indian markets declined on Friday following hawkish statements by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials who brought back fears of even higher interest rates. Today, markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start amid mixed global cues. Foreign investors have shifted their focus back on the Indian equity markets as they turned net buyers with an investment of over Rs 7,600 crore in the week ended February 17. Traders will be taking encouragement as former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said India is likely to clock 6 percent growth rate next fiscal and the country can persevere with a high growth rate because of several reforms undertaken during the last eight years by the Narendra Modi government. Some support will come as Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said India's exports are expected to grow by 3-5 per cent to $435-445 billion in this fiscal. Besides, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said India is targeting seven per cent growth in economy this year and we expect it to cross it in the next five years. Meanwhile, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, after the 49th GST Council meeting, has said the entire outstanding GST (goods and services tax) compensation cess dues to states for the five-year period will be cleared, with the payment of Rs 16,982 crore remaining for June 2022 and an additional Rs 16,524 crore to six states. However, there may be some cautiousness as the Reserve Bank of India's latest data showed that India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $8.31 billion to $566.94 billion in the week ending on February 10. India's reserves fell 8.3%, logging the biggest decline in more than 11 months. There will be some buzz in the aviation industry stocks as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) stated that Indian domestic air travel has significantly improved as it touched 85.7 per cent of pre-covid 2019 levels in the year 2022. Auto industry stocks will be in focus as in a bid to give a boost to semiconductor manufacturing in the country, Union Minister for Electronics and Information Technology, Ashwini Vaishnaw announced that the government will come up with a program very soon to put the country on a good semiconductor journey for the next 10 years.

The US markets ended mostly in red on Friday weighed down by Microsoft and Nvidia as investors worried that inflation and a strong US economy could put the Federal Reserve on pace for more interest rate hikes. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday as China left its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.65 per cent and 4.3 per cent, respectively, for February.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended the Friday’s trade on a weaker note as traders remain worried on report that Federal Reserve might raise interest rates three more times this year, by a quarter of a percentage point each, after data this week indicated to hot inflation and labor market resilience. Markets made a pessimistic start mirroring weakness in global markets amid fears of higher interest rates. Soon, domestic gauges pared most of their initial losses as traders took support with a private report that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at 6.2 per cent in FY24 as drivers of domestic demand remain intact amid fears of an impending slowdown. However, the recovery proved short lived and markets once again moved southward. In afternoon deals, bourses tested their crucial 60,800 (Sensex) and 17,880(Nifty) levels as traders opted to sell their risky bets amid global uncertainty. Weakness in currency markets too dampened sentiments. The rupee depreciated 14 paise to close at 82.84 (provisional) against the US currency as the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and a muted trend in domestic equities weighed on investor sentiments. Traders shrugged off Economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative’s report where it said that India’s merchandise exports have recorded a healthy growth in both value and volume terms in 2022. The outbound shipments rose by 14.6 per cent year-on-year to $453.3 billion in 2022. Traders took note of report that Former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said the Budget should have focused more on asset monetisation and privatisation, besides allocating more funds to the social sector schemes. Small set of recovery in dying hours of trade helped key gauges to regain their crucial 61,000 (Sensex) and 17,900 (Nifty) levels as traders went for value buying in late trade. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 316.94 points or 0.52% to 61,002.57 and the CNX Nifty was down by 91.65 points or 0.51% to 17,944.20.

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