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Soybean

Highlights:

* India's oilmeal exports surged threefold on year to 393,309 tn in February, as per data released by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. For Apr-Feb, overall exports of oilmeal rose 49% on year to 3.36 mln tn.

* For Apr-Jan, soymeal exports up by 115% to 1.42 mln tn compared with 660,065 tn in the year-ago period.

* The US Department of Agriculture has scaled up its estimate for global oilseed production in 2020-21 to 595.8 mln tn from 595.1 mln tn projected in February. The world oilseed crop is projected higher with rise in production of soybean and rapeseed, a kind of mustard. Soybean output in Brazil was raised by 1 mln tn to 134 mln.

* Soybean output is raised 200,000 tn to 10.7 mln in India based on updated government area data while Argentina’s soybean crop is reduced 500,000 tn to 47.5 mln due to dry weather conditions over the past month.

* The agency said that a sharp rise in world oilseed production was limited by lower palm kernel, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed output. World oilseed exports are raised 800,000 tn to 194.7 mln tn primarily on higher rapeseed exports for Ukraine and Australia.

* World soybean crush is forecast up 1.6 mln tn to 323.6 mln as higher crush for Argentina and Brazil is partly offset by lower crush for China.

* Higher crush in Argentina results in higher meal and oil exports. Soybean crush for China is lowered by 1 mln tn to 98 mln tn. World soybean stocks are a tad higher, with increased stocks for China and Brazil that are mostly offset by lower stocks for Argentina, it said.The agency maintained its estimate for soybean output in the US at nearly 112.6 mln tn in 2020-21.

* India's soymeal exports jumped over five-fold on year in February to 360,000 tn, The Soybean Processors Association of India data showed. Soymeal exports in December a year ago were just 71,000 tn.

* Brazilian farmers are poised to reap a record harvest of 132.2 million tonnes of soybeans in 2021 despite a drought that If prices able to hold the support of 5390 expect to see more upside moves targeting further towards 5574/5630 or even higher to 5700 levels. However, unable to move above 5545 could see some profit booking. Moreover, weekly RSI (14) is treading at overbought zone at 78 suggesting some profit booking is expected in the near term.

* The most active Mar futures prices in NCDEX rose sharply in the last week after a major corrective moves due to reports of firm export demand for soymeal in the domestic markets. Moreover, shortage of soybean supply in the spot markets also supported the gains. However, higher rabi mustard seed output during this season is likely to arrest major upside moves.

* The U.S CBOT soybean prices rose more than three percent on back firm export demand for soybean from China. High-level talks between the United States and China in Alaska this week is likely to determine prices in coming days. However, improved weather in Argentina and Brazil is likely speed up harvesting in coming days which may weigh on prices. Further, expected increase in U.S. plantings this spring has limited gains in new-crop contracts.

Mustard Seed

Highlights:

* The farm ministry has asked the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India to ready itself to procure 239,175 tn of mustard harvested in the 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) rabi season from farmers in Uttar Pradesh.

* Government estimated that mustard output during 2020-21 at 10.4 mln tn, against 9.1 mln tn a year ago.

* India's 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) mustard acreage was up by 6.7% on year at 7.3 mln ha as of 18th Jan., according to farm ministry data.

* Crushing of mustard seed rose 83.3% on month to 550,000 tn in the country, in February, data from the Marudhar Trading Agency. In January, mills had crushed 300,000 tn of the oilseed. The sharp surge in crushing was primarily due to a rise in arrivals of the fresh crop in spot markets. As of February, the carryover stock was at 100,000 tn.

* India's vegetable oil imports dropped nearly 25% on year to around 838,607 tn in February, The Solvent Extractors' Association of India said. During Nov-Feb, the country imported 4.39 mln tn of vegetable oil, down 3.7% from the year-ago period.

* India is likely to produce around 10 mln tn of mustard in 2020 -21 (Jul-Jun), up 35% from a year ago due to higher acreage and favourable weather conditions, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. India's mustard output in the current crop year is likely to rise 15% to a record high of 8.4 mln tn, as per the median of estimates of 14 market participants, primarily due to higher yield and favourable weather conditions.

* India's oilmeal exports surged threefold on year to 393,309 tn in February, as per data released by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India today. For Apr-Feb, overall exports of oilmeal rose 49% on year to 3.36 mln tn. Mustard meal exports, during Apr-Feb, were at 1,028,745 tn, up by around 18% from a year ago.

* The government has fixed the minimum support price at 4,650 rupees per 100 kg for 2020-21 (Apr-Mar) marketing season against 4,425 rupees per 100 kg the previous year.Prices has been trading in range for past four weeks. On the higher side, it is to clear the resistance of 5900 to continue major upside rallies. Likewise, on the lower side any fall below 5200 could see a major weakness. Meanwhile, weekly RSI (14) is treading lower indicating a neutral view.

* The Apr Mustard seed futures prices fell down in the last week largely mainly due to expectation of bumper output during this current rabi season owing to higher acreage. Moreover, higher rate of new crop arrivals in the mandis also weighed on sentiments. However, reports of higher mustard meal exports cushioning major fall.

* India's 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) mustard acreage was up by 6.7% on year at 7.3 mln ha as of 18th Jan., according to farm ministry data. The government has targeted an all-time high crop of 12.5 mln tn for this rabi season. India is likely to grow a record 10 mln tn mustard crop in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), according to Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* The Indian Council of Agricultural Research - Directorate of Rapeseed-Mustard Research believes that mustard production this year could be between 9.4 mln tn and 12.5 mln tn.

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