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Gold yesterday settled up by 0.08% at 47393 paring gains earlier seen as falling yields and the prospect of rising Chinese demand boosted the appeal of the precious metal. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) was reported to have allowed domestic and international commercial banks to import a large amount of gold to meet domestic demand. Physical gold consumption may get a boost during the upcoming “Golden Week” holiday as weddings and tourism activity drive a demand boom. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest level seen in five weeks as inflation fear abated. Gold imports, which have a bearing on the country's current account deficit (CAD), rose by 22.58 per cent to $34.6 billion (about Rs 2.54 lakh crore) during 2020-21 due to increased domestic demand, according to the Commerce Ministry data. Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) Chairman Colin Shah said that increasing domestic demand is pushing up imports of gold. Gems and jewellery exports declined by 27.5 per cent to $ 26 billion in April-March 2020-21. Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish positions in COMEX gold and raised them in silver contracts in the week to April 13, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.84% to settled at 11268 while prices up 40 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47166 and below same could see a test of 46938 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47736, a move above could see prices testing 48078.

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 47705-48691.

* Gold prices edged higher as a weaker dollar and a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields lifted demand for the safe-haven metal.

* The Bank of Japan is set to predict for the first time that inflation will remain well short of its 2% target beyond Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's term through early 2023.

* Russia produced 38.09 tonnes of gold in January and February this year, down from the 39.71 tonnes it produced in the same period in 2020

Silver 

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 68324 as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged higher to 1.61% recovering from a 1-month low of 1.53% hit last week, as investors digest prospects for a strong economic recovery and await a fresh round of corporate earnings. Also, the yields are pushed up by rising coronavirus infections and restrictions and slow vaccination in some parts of the globe, and geopolitical tensions after US imposed a new array of sanctions on Russia. At the same time, concerns over coronavirus vaccination and rising infections continue to be in the spotlight, despite prospects for a strong global recovery. Last week, the white metal gained almost 3% after the US Food and Drug Administration recommended states pausing the use of Johnson & Johnson's coronavirus vaccine. Silver imports during the last fiscal, however, dipped by 71 per cent to about $791 million. The dollar weakened and benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged lower towards multi-week lows touched last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve reiterated its view that any spike in inflation was likely to be temporary. Christopher Waller, the newest governor on the Federal Reserve's Washington-based board, said on Friday that any accompanying spike in inflation will prove short-lived- echoing the view of most U.S. central bankers. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.69% to settled at 8686 while prices down -360 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67725 and below same could see a test of 67127 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69151, a move above could see prices testing 69979.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 68636-71276.

* Silver gained as a rise in U.S. Treasury yields stalled and the dollar steadied near multi-week lows.

* Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recently that a coming upswing in inflation readings is likely to be transitory

* Interest rates in the United States moved in a tight range and the outlook for vaccinations in Europe improved.

Crude oil     

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.59% at 4766 rebounding from early weakness, as prices moved higher amid expectations of a drop in global crude supply. China's record imports of Iranian crude in recent months has squeezed out supply from rival producers, forcing sellers of oil from countries such as Brazil, Angola and Russia to slash prices and divert shipments to India and Europe. Hong Kong will suspend flights from India, Pakistan and the Philippines from April 20 due to imported coronavirus infections, authorities said in a statement. Japanese companies believe the world's third-largest economy will experience a fourth round of coronavirus infections, with many bracing for a further blow to business. Japan's customs-cleared crude oil imports fell 17.0 percent in March from the same month a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said. Japan, the world's fourth-biggest crude buyer, imported 2.49 million barrels per day (12.27 million kilolitres) of crude oil last month, the preliminary data showed. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to April 13, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 1,511 contracts to 376,948 during the period. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 64.38% to settled at 6401 while prices up 28 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4723 and below same could see a test of 4679 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4797, a move above could see prices testing 4827.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4549-4761.

* Crude oil dropped on concerns that soaring COVID-19 cases in India will drive down fuel demand in the world's third biggest oil importer.

* Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ meeting of oil producers next week may confirm or tweak current output plans.

* Crude oil and distillate stocks rose in the most recent week, while gasoline inventories fell

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.35% at 204.9 on forecasts for more heating demand this week than previously expected and near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports. That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather through the start of May than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 61 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 9. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from 91.6 bcfd in March but still well below the record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 91.9 bcfd this week to 94.9 bcfd next week as the weather cools. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 11.0 bcfd so far in April, which would top March's monthly record of 10.8 bcfd. Germany imported 5.7% less natural gas in the first two months of 2021 but increased its bill by 2.6% over a year earlier, data from trade statistics office BAFA showed. BAFA's monthly figures showed January/February imports were 934,538 Terajoules (TJ), or 26.6 billion cubic metres (bcm), compared with 991,302 TJ recorded a year earlier. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.83% to settled at 11317 while prices up 4.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 202.7 and below same could see a test of 200.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206.5, a move above could see prices testing 208.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 198.9-207.7.

* Natural gas slipped on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* The price decline came despite a dip in output in recent days and ongoing near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports.

* With stockpiles at normal levels and the weather expected to turn seasonally milder, traders said price spikes were unlikely in coming weeks.

Copper      

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.85% at 722.45 as the continued economic recovery has warmed up market sentiment, and investors are increasingly agreeing that the Fed will maintain its easing policy stance for a longer period of time. The annualized total number of housing starts in the United States exceeded expectations. China's state planner expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to grow mildly this year and remain within the official target, its spokesperson Meng Wei said. Price trends in China will be influenced by external factors as global commodity prices rise, but the impact would be limited and controllable, Meng told reporters at a regular briefing. China has set a target for CPI at around 3% this year. China's state planner said that it approved 16 fixed-asset investment projects worth a total of 45.4 billion yuan ($6.96 billion) in the first quarter of this year. The projects are mainly in the transportation, high technology and energy sectors, Meng Wei, a spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), told reporters at a regular briefing. The NDRC also said that China's power consumption surged 21.2% in the first quarter from a year earlier. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.81% to settled at 2492 while prices up 13.15 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 714 and below same could see a test of 705.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 731.1, a move above could see prices testing 739.7. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 722.6-733.

* Copper prices rose boosted by prospects of higher demand alongside a global economic recovery from the Covid-19 blow.

* China kept its benchmark lending rate for corporate and household loans steady for the 12th straight month at its April fixing, matching market expectations.

*  A slew of better-than-expected US and China data last week reinforced the view of a healthy economic recovery

Zinc       

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.55% at 229.35 as weaker US dollar and US Treasury yields and US new housing starts in March that registered a new high in 15 years supported prices. Resumption across domestic zinc mines and the arrival of imported zinc concentrate will ease domestic tight supply of zinc concentrate. Zinc social inventories extended declines last Friday. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 8,100 mt in the week ended April 16 to 220,700 mt. The stocks fell 11,900 mt from Monday April 12. Stocks in Shanghai decreased due to increasing purchase volume of the downstream at low prices. In south China's Guangdong, outbound cargoes rose sharply and arrivals also increased, which led to the slight decrease in stocks. Stocks in Tianjin fell sharply as downstream restocking demand increased when zinc prices fell and the maintenance of smelters in Inner Mongolia affected arrivals. Inventories of finished products at zinc smelters fell 13,350 mt from a month ago to 30,200 mt in March, including 19,400 mt of zinc ingots and 10,800 mt of zinc alloy, according to survey. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.61% to settled at 1562 while prices up 1.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 228 and below same could see a test of 226.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 231.2, a move above could see prices testing 232.9.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 223.7-230.9.

* Zinc prices gained as the dollar wallowed near a six-week low as U.S. bond yields have hovered below a 14-month peak touched last month.

* China kept the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.85% and five-year LPR at 4.65%.

* The U.S. Federal Reserve reiterated its view that any spike in inflation was likely to be temporary.

Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.05% at 1215 as the dollar fell to a four-week low, still smarting from a sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields, and as investors increasingly bought into the Federal Reserve’s insistence it would keep an accommodative policy stance for a while longer. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to a one-month low of 1.528%, moving further away from March’s 1.776%, its highest in more than a year, even in the face of Thursday’s stronger-than-expected retail sales and employment data. Euro zone inflation ramped up in March, Eurostat confirmed, with consumer prices across the bloc rising 0.9% month-on-month, driven primarily by services and energy. China's state planner said that it approved 16 fixed-asset investment projects worth a total of 45.4 billion yuan ($6.96 billion) in the first quarter of this year. The projects are mainly in the transportation, high technology and energy sectors, Meng Wei, a spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), told reporters at a regular briefing. The NDRC also said that China's power consumption surged 21.2% in the first quarter from a year earlier. China's state planner expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to grow mildly this year and remain within the official target, its spokesperson Meng Wei said. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.39% to settled at 1477 while prices up 0.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1207.4 and below same could see a test of 1199.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1226.4, a move above could see prices testing 1237.7.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1203.8-1240.

* Nickel recovered to gain as Russian metals producer Nornickel has improved its 2021 production forecast slightly.

* The global nickel market surplus expanded to 6,200 tonnes in February from a downwardly revised surplus of 3,500 tonnes in the previous month.

* During the first two months of the year, the global market saw a surplus of 9,700 tonnes, down from a surplus of 29,300 tonnes in the same period of 2020.

Aluminium     

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.69% at 188.45 as social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, declined 45,000 mt from the prior week to 1.18 million mt as of April 15. Stocks fell 27,000 mt in Gongyi, 14,000 mt in Nanhai and 6,000 mt in Wuxi, but rose slightly in Hangzhou and Tianjin. China's aluminium imports in March rose 40.8% from the previous month, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed. March imports of unwrought aluminium and products were 206,556 tonnes, up from February’s nine-month low of 146,671 tonnes and up 70.9% year-on-year. First-quarter imports totaled 661,517 tonnes, up 118.8% from the same period in 2020. China, the world's top aluminium producer, brought in record volumes of the metal last year as strong demand took Shanghai prices higher than London prices, opening an arbitrage window for cheaper overseas metal. The arbitrage has mostly been closed in 2021 but briefly opened in mid-March as the spread between Shanghai and London prices hit its widest since July. China's state planner expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to grow mildly this year and remain within the official target, its spokesperson Meng Wei said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.94% to settled at 1808 while prices up 1.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 187.3 and below same could see a test of 186 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 189.9, a move above could see prices testing 191.2.   

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 187.7-193.1.

*  Aluminium gains as aluminium smelters in Xinjiang would be subject to carbon-neutrality production reductions similar to those in the Inner Mongolia

*  China's aluminium imports in March rose 40.8% from the previous month, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed.

* China's aluminium output rose in March from a year earlier to a monthly record, official data showed

Mentha oil      

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 961.4 amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.6 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.08% to settled at 49 while prices down -2.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 959.3 and below same could see a test of 957.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 964.2, a move above could see prices testing 967.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 947.5-960.9.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.6 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil settled down amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand in domestic as well as in the international market.

* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.

 * The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

Soyabean      

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 4.29% at 7419 on concerns over global supplies after domestic processors and importers led by China made huge purchases of grain and oilseeds. Soyabean production for the current season (October 2020-September 2021) has been projected at 104.55 lakh tonnes (lt), besides an opening stock of 5.16 lt. This is against last year’s production of 93.06 lt and opening stock of 1.70 lakh tonnes. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, in its second advance estimates of agricultural production, had pegged soyabean output at 137.1 lt. The SOPA said that out the total projected soyabean production, nearly 75 lt had arrived by March-end with 58.5 lt being crushed. Farmers could be holding 36.64 lt stocks. The Centre has pegged the soyabean crop higher at over 130 lt and SOPA at over 100 lt. The actual figure could be somewhere between. So, the huge rise in soyabean prices seem unjustified based on speculation over supplies. According to SEA, soyabean prices are about ₹27,500 a tonne higher than the same period year ago, while soyameal prices free-alongside ship are $710 (₹53,375) a tonne compared with $441 (₹33,150) a year ago. Soyameal consumption for feed dropped during the October-March period of the current season to 27 lt from 29.25 lt in the same period a year ago. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 143 Rupees to 7512 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.88% to settled at 97845 while prices up 305 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7122 and below same could see a test of 6824 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7619, a move above could see prices testing 7818.      

Trading Ideas:            

*  Soyabean trading range for the day is 2509-2509.

* Soyabean rose amid concerns over global supplies after domestic processors and importers led by China loaded up on grain and oilseeds this season.

* China’s imports of the oilseed from the United States more than quadrupled.

* China's March soybean imports from Brazil plunged as rain delayed some shipments from the top exporter

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  143 Rupees to 7512 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil       

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.48% at 1374.7 as total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period. Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. The food ministry has sent a proposal to the Empowered Group of Ministers to review edible oil prices, and a meeting may be called soon. The government is likely to review edible oil prices soon. Sources said a decision on import duty reduction may be taken in that meeting. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1422.5 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.81% to settled at 35325 while prices up 6.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1361 and below same could see a test of 1346 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1387, a move above could see prices testing 1398.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1397-1441.

* Ref soyoil ended with gains as total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021.

* Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production.

* Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the USDA's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations.

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1422.5 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil     

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.58% at 1179.4 lifted by tight supplies and stronger exports in April. India's palm oil imports in March jumped 57% year on year as refiners increased purchases of the tropical oil to reduce expensive sunflower oil imports. However upside seen limited as higher-than-expected inventories and production weighed on the market. The weakness is mainly due to higher crop output and rising inventories in Malaysia and bearish news from the biodiesel market. Malaysia's end-March palm oil stocks jumped more than expected to a four-month top, boosted by higher imports and production, but a surge in exports kept domestic supply in check, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed. The Brazilian government temporarily reduced its biodiesel blending requirement for diesel fuel to 10% from 13%, according to a Mines and Energy Ministry statement that cited strong demand for soy as a reason for the decision. In India, the biggest importer of Malaysian palm oil, buying activity has slowed as a surge in COVID-19 cases increased risks of a full lockdown in one state, which could hit vegetable oil demand during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The market was further weighed down by Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data showing end-March palm oil stocks rose 10.7% from the previous month to 1.45 million tonnes. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 2.5 Rupees to end at 1204 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.63% to settled at 4046 while prices up 6.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1165.1 and below same could see a test of 1150.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1187.6, a move above could see prices testing 1195.9.         

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1187.7-1231.3.

* Crude palm oil prices gained tracking rise in Malaysian prices lifted by tight supplies and stronger exports in April.

* India's palm oil imports in March jumped 57% year on year as refiners increased purchases of the tropical oil to reduce expensive sunflower oil imports.

* Malaysia's end-March palm oil stocks jumped more than expected to a four-month top, boosted by higher imports and production.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 2.5 Rupees to end at 1204 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.27% at 7076 as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. The arrival of mustard in February was 4.50 lakh tonne while in March it reached 17.7 million tonne. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. As per USDA, World Mustard seed production is estimated to remain steady at 689 lakh tonnes in 2020-21. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% y-o-y, taking the total supply to decline by 2% to 923 lakh tonnes as compared to 944 lakh tonnes recorded in the last year. Total consumption and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% and 29% respectively. World export is also estimated to increase by 5% to 162 lakh tonnes as compared to 155 lakh tonnes last year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -206 Rupees to end at 7119 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.77% to settled at 74230 while prices up 89 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6842 and below same could see a test of 6609 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7287, a move above could see prices testing 7499.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 2365-2365.

* Mustard seed prices gained as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand.

*  A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February.

* The stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -206 Rupees to end at 7119 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric      

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.19% at 8030 amid fears of rise in arrivals as the markets of Nizamabad, Erode, Salem have started as usual from 15 April. However, preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed turmeric exports gained by 5% on year on year basis to 13,026 tons against 12,462 tons in March 2020. However this year export growth is seen limited due to over 40% rise in turmeric prices. Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production. Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare’s first advance estimate of horticultural crops, turmeric production is projected to be 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) this season (July 2020-June 2021) compared with 11.53 lt the previous season. The crop this year is at least 20 per cent lower as unseasonal rains affected the crop in Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Arrivals have been sluggish proving that the projections of the lower crop are correct. Arrivals so far this year been 10.15 lakh bags (50 kg each) against 11.50 lakh bags last year and 14 lakh bags in 2019. In places such as Nanded in Maharashtra, arrivals are at least 40 per cent lower. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7655.9 Rupees dropped -28.3 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.21% to settled at 10015 while prices down -180 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7902 and below same could see a test of 7772 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8162, a move above could see prices testing 8292.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 2742-2742.

* Turmeric prices gained as support seen after preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed turmeric exports gained by 5%

* Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production.

* Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7655.9 Rupees dropped -28.3 Rupees.

Jeera​​​​​​​      

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.08% at 14210 as the second wave of Corona has weakened its export demand. Farmers are bringing cumin in the mandis of Gujarat and Rajasthan rapidly because they could not bring their produce to the mandis at the same time last year due to Corona wave. This arrival pressure coupled with a weak demand from lockdown conditions put pressure on sentiment. Prices remained under pressure in recent sessions as there is pressure on the supply of new crops in the spot markets and demand will be affected due to the lockdown amid resurgence in corona virus cases in many countries. Pressure seen after update in Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year (February-January) 2021-22. Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons against 19,406 tons in March 2020. In 2020 March exports of Cumin were less because of boarder tensions with China. According to the Union Government's Ministry of Consumer Affairs, the arrival of cumin in the mandis of Gujarat from 1 February to 31 March 2021 was 121063.57 tonnes while it was 79604.84 tonnes from February to 31 March 2020. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.79% to settled at 6414 while prices down -155 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14120 and below same could see a test of 14035 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14310, a move above could see prices testing 14415.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 4695-4695.

* Jeera prices dropped as the second wave of Corona has weakened its export demand.

* Farmers are bringing cumin in the mandis of Gujarat and Rajasthan rapidly

* There is pressure on the supply of new crops in the spot markets and demand will be affected due to the lockdown

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton       

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 21320 as CAI increases the production estimate to 360 lakh bales on higher output in North India. The second wave of Covid-19 is taking its toll on Gujarat’s textile industry which saw at least 25% decline in fabric production in the past 15-20 days. Since the beginning of April, production of fabric has gone down in the state from around 5.50 crore metres to almost 4 crore metres per day. Demand from textile traders has gone down drastically. If the situation doesn’t improve in next fortnight period, production of fabric would further plummet to as low as 50%. CAI estimated cotton exports to increase by 20% to 60 lakh bales in the 2020-21 season that begins in October, mainly due to higher international prices. If the lockdown increases in Bangladesh, Indian cotton exports will be affected. CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2020-21, that is up to September 30, at 496 lakh bales. Around 35 to 37 lakhs out of the export of 60 to 70 lakh bales of cotton is being exported to Bangladesh. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -220 Rupees to end at 21880 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.61% to settled at 5380 while prices down -120 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21160 and below same could see a test of 20990 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21580, a move above could see prices testing 21830.        

Trading Ideas:            

*  Cotton trading range for the day is 20400-21500.

*  Cotton gains as CAI estimated cotton exports to increase by 20% to 60 lakh bales in the 2020-21 season that begins in October.

*  CAI increases the production estimate to 360 lakh bales on higher output in North India.

*  The second wave of Covid-19 is taking its toll on Gujarat’s textile industry which saw at least 25% decline in fabric production in the past 15-20 days.

*  In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -220 Rupees to end at 21880 Rupees.

Chana     

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.59% at 5721 on profit booking as demand gets affected amid rise in Covid cases after prices gained in recent session due to expectation of better demand during the upcoming festival season. In addition, the government has initiated procurement at the minimum support price in major markets. Government agency Nafed has purchased 1.52 lakh tonnes of gram in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. According to the second advance estimate of the Ministry of Agriculture, a record 116 million tonnes of gram production is expected in the 2020-21 season. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year. Chana arrivals last month increased three-fold to 6.4 lakh tonnes. Depending on the new policy of government, the production of peas is expected to increase from 2 lakh tonnes to around 4.5 lakh tonnes. Purchases were made by some big companies at the beginning of the season, but now their purchase has also stopped, the government should completely remove the MRP 200 rupees per kg condition for the next financial year. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -96.25 Rupees to end at 5703.75 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.72% to settled at 133870 while prices down -34 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5631 and below same could see a test of 5542 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5799, a move above could see prices testing 5878.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 1864-1864.

*  Chana prices dropped on profit booking as demand gets affected amid rise in Covid cases after prices gained in recent session due to expectation of better demand

* In addition, the government has initiated procurement at the minimum support price in major markets.

*  Purchases were made by some big companies at the beginning of the season, but now their purchase has also stopped

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -96.25 Rupees to end at 5703.75 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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