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Sensex (48544) / Nifty (14505)

On Tuesday, Nifty started marginally positive and approached the level of 14450 in the first hour of the trade. This level coincided around the previous support which now was the immediate resistance. The index hesitated there and pared the gains before noon itself to sneak below 14300. The index consolidated for a while in a range and when it looked that the market was unable to sustain at higher level, the index once again made an attempt to surpass the morning highs.

With the help of the Banking and Financial space, Nifty rallied sharply in last couple of hours and ended the day tad above 14500, marking gains of almost 200 points. We have already seen a week full of action in a couple of sessions with indices showing sharp swings on both the days. Nifty breached its short term support on Monday, but it reclaimed the 14500 mark next day.

The sharp recovery certainly seems enticing, but still we advise not to get carried away as we may still not be out of the woods. The bearish gap area and the ‘20-day exponential moving average’ at 14650-14700 remains a sturdy wall which could be difficult to surpass On the flipside, the ‘89 DEMA’ has played its role well as of now as Nifty did not breach that and Monday’s low almost coincides with that support. With above mentioned levels on the tab, traders should look to lighten up longs on pullback as the index approaches its resistance zone.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (31772)

After Monday’s massive sell off, markets were a bit oversold and since there was no negative development on the global as well as domestic front, we started the session higher. As the day progressed, the buying momentum kept on accelerating in some of the high beta counters (who were among the major casualties on Monday) to recoup half of its previous day’s losses.

Eventually BANKNIFTY ended the session marginally below the 31800 mark. Tuesday’s move was quite similar to the spring action after taking a solid knock of Five percent during Monday’s session. Many market participants seemed to have started calling this as a bottom and began participating aggressively on the long side.

Their anticipation might be right also but we do not want to immediately get carried away by this move, rather would wait for any kind of sustained follow up buying. In our sense, Tuesday’s sharp rebound in banking space was due to extreme oversold position and importantly, it was merely a technical adjustment to compensate the massive correction in IT counters led by TCS post its earnings. We would consider this as a bounce back move and hence, we are not completely out of the woods yet till the time 33000 – 33500 levels are not surpassed convincingly.

In addition, looking at the rising value of ‘ADX (14)’ indicator on the daily chart along with ‘Negative DI’ sloping upwards, indicates bear grip on the space at least in a shorter run. Hence, it’s better not to jump on to any conclusion immediately, and use rallies to lighten up longs. On the higher side, 31900 – 32300 are to be seen as intraday hurdles; whereas on the flipside, 31360 – 31000 can be treated as immediate supports.

Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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