IGI Logo

Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.95% at 46871 as yields rose and the dollar strengthened amid optimism that a global economic recovery is gathering pace, thanks to successful vaccine rollouts in much of the developed world. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that U.S. economic outlook has clearly brightened amid faster vaccination rates and fiscal stimulus, but cautioned that the economy is "not out of the woods yet." "While the recovery is gathering strength, it has been slower for those in lower-paid jobs," Powell said at a National Community Reinvestment Coalition event. The central bank is focused on these longstanding disparities as they weigh on the productive capacity of the economy, he added. New York Fed President John Williams noted that current conditions are "not nearly enough" for a shift in the monetary policy stance. Investors await upcoming economic data to assess the strength of the rebound in the economy. U.S. manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in April, restrained by shortages of inputs as rising vaccinations against COVID-19 and massive fiscal stimulus unleashed pent-up demand. The survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed record-long lead times, wide-scale shortages of critical basic materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products across industries. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.02% to settled at 10373 while prices down -448 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46575 and below same could see a test of 46279 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47309, a move above could see prices testing 47747.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 46279-47747.
* Gold prices retreated as yields rose and the dollar strengthened amid optimism that a global economic recovery is gathering pace
* Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that U.S. economic outlook has clearly brightened amid faster vaccination rates and fiscal stimulus
* While the recovery is gathering strength, it has been slower for those in lower-paid jobs, Powell said

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.76% at 69649 as the dollar firmed amid likelihood of an increase in interest rates sometime in the foreseeable future. Prices rallied Monday after a reported revealed U.S. manufacturing cooled in April, boosting demand for safe haven assets. Silver exchange traded funds could continue to outperform their gold counterparts as improving industrial demand helps support the rally. According to the Silver Institute, global industrial silver production is expected to grow 8% this year due to strong demand for consumer electronics and solar. The price for silver is expected to peak at $32 per ounce later this year and its average price to increase 33% over 2020 - Silver Institute. Mine production is also forecast to rise by 8% this year as output recovers after last year's pandemic–related disruptions, which led to a 5.9% decline in global silver supply last year. Demand pick-up is predicated on a recovery in vehicle manufacturing, strong consumer electronics demand, and further gains from the solar sector. In 2020, total silver demand for the PV industry totaled 101.0 million ounces and in 2019 it reached 98.7 million ounces. Improving industrial demand for silver should help prices average around $25 an ounce this year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.1% to settled at 8913 while prices down -1251 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68565 and below same could see a test of 67482 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 71075, a move above could see prices testing 72502.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67482-72502.
* Silver settled lower as the dollar firmed amid likelihood of an increase in interest rates sometime in the foreseeable future.
* Silver exchange traded funds could continue to outperform their gold counterparts as improving industrial demand helps support the rally.
* Global industrial silver production is expected to grow 8% this year due to strong demand for consumer electronics and solar

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.23% at 4842 as expectations of an economic recovery in the developed world offset investor concerns over fuel demand in India. U.S. crude oil exports fell to 2.61 million barrels per day in March compared with 2.65 million bpd the February, foreign trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed.OPEC's share of India's oil imports fell to the lowest in at least two decades in the year to the end of March as overall purchases by Asia's third largest economy fell to a six-year low, data obtained from industry and trade sources showed. Total crude imports by the world's third-biggest oil importer fell to 3.97 million barrels per day (bpd) in the 2021 fiscal year to March 31, down 11.8% from a year earlier, the data showed. EU officials proposed easing restrictions on visiting the 27-nation bloc as vaccination campaigns across the continent gather speed. Media reports suggest that Britain will announce the green list for countries that people can travel to on holiday shortly. Prices are being supported by the prospect of a pick-up in fuel demand in the United States and Europe, as New York state, New Jersey and Connecticut were set to ease pandemic curbs and the European Union planned to open up to more foreign visitors who have been vaccinated. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 17.69% to settled at 7180 while prices up 59 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4778 and below same could see a test of 4715 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4892, a move above could see prices testing 4943.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4715-4943.
* Crude oil prices jumped as expectations of an economic recovery in the developed world offset investor concerns over fuel demand in India.
* U.S. crude oil exports fell to 2.61 million barrels per day in March compared with 2.65 million bpd the February, foreign trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed.
* EU officials proposed easing restrictions on visiting the 27-nation bloc as vaccination campaigns across the continent gather speed.


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 219.1 on forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand this week than previously expected. Support also seen after a government report showed that US stockpiles increased more than expected last week. That price decline came despite forecasts for slightly cooler weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected, continued near record exports and lower output due to routine spring pipeline maintenance. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 15 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 23. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 1.898 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 2.1% below the five-year average of 1.938 tcf for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to an average of 91.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 91.5 bcfd in March due to routine spring pipeline maintenance. That compares with a record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would slide from 89.5 bcfd this week to 87.3 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.96% to settled at 18514 while prices up 0.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 216.6 and below same could see a test of 214.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 222, a move above could see prices testing 224.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 214.1-224.9.
* Natural gas settled flat on forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand this week than previously expected.
* Support also seen after a government report showed that US stockpiles increased more than expected last week.
* EIA said U.S. utilities added 15 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 23.

Copper


Copper yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 762.65 as the global copper market should see a surplus of 79,000 tonnes this year and of 109,000 tonnes in 2022, the International Copper Study Group said. Top copper producer Chile saw output of the red metal fall for the tenth consecutive month in March, official data showed, marking a modest but continual slide in production that began shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic struck the country. Factory activity in top metals consumer China expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in April as supply and transport bottlenecks weighed on production and overseas demand lost momentum. Copper's rally, driven by a combination of optimism about recovery prospects for the pandemic-hit global economy and supply concerns, is likely to stall in the second half of 2021 as China reins in stimulus spending. Goldman Sachs forecast copper would average $9,675 a tonne in 2021, $11,875 a tonne in 2022 and $12,000 a tonne in 2023. However, Yangshan copper premium fell to $43 a tonne, its lowest since April 2017, indicating weakening demand from top consumer China as prices have leaped 24% this year. The global world refined copper market showed a 28,000 tonnes surplus in January, compared with a 1,000 tonnes deficit in December, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.48% to settled at 4226 while prices down -1.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 759.2 and below same could see a test of 755.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 765.6, a move above could see prices testing 768.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 755.7-768.5.
* Copper prices dropped as the global copper market should see a surplus of 79,000 tonnes this year and of 109,000 tonnes in 2022.
* Top copper producer Chile saw output of the red metal fall for the tenth consecutive month in March, marking a modest but continual slide in production.
* Copper's rally, driven by a combination of optimism about recovery prospects for the pandemic-hit global economy and supply concerns

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.3% at 234.85 as investors looked to signs of recovery from the coronavirus pandemic as major economies around the world reopen. Support seen after euro zone factory activity growth surged to a record high in April, boosted by burgeoning demand and driving a rise in hiring, although supply constraints led to an unprecedented rise in unfulfilled orders, a survey showed. IHS Markit's final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 62.9 in April from March's 62.5, albeit below the initial 63.3 "flash" estimate but the highest reading since the survey began in June 1997. Global supply of refined zinc is expected to exceed demand by 353,000 tonnes in 2021, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said, adding it expects global supply of lead to exceed demand by 96,000 tonnes. ILZSG forecasts global demand for refined zinc to rise by 4.3% to 13.78 million tonnes in 2021 and global zinc mine production by 5.7% to 12.92 million tonnes. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 21,900 mt from last Friday April 23 to 180,100 mt as of April 30. The stocks fell 9,700 mt from Monday April 26. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.67% to settled at 2292 while prices up 0.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 232.9 and below same could see a test of 231 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 237.2, a move above could see prices testing 239.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 231-239.6.
* Zinc prices gained as investors looked to signs of recovery from the coronavirus pandemic as major economies around the world reopen.
* Global supply of refined zinc is expected to exceed demand by 353,000 tonnes in 2021, the ILZSG said
* Chinese zinc smelters, produced 426,000 tonnes of zinc in March, up 7% year-on-year but down 9.8% month-on-month on adaily basis

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.01% at 1317.9 as prospects for rebounding growth as the global vaccine rollout gathers pace underpinned a rally in the metals market. Global demand for nickel is expected to increase to 2.67 million tonnes in 2021 from 2.39 million tonnes in 2020, the International Nickel Study Group said. Global output of nickel is expected to rise to 2.72 million tonnes from 2.49 million tonnes, the Lisbon-based group said, adding the implicit market balance is a surplus of 45,000 tonnes in 2021. Indonesian state miner Aneka Tambang (Antam) said its nickel ore output rose more than four-fold in the first three months of 2021 compared to the same period a year ago. Antam's nickel ore output stood at 2.64 million wet metric tonnes (WMT) in the first quarter, up from 629,000 WMT in the same period in 2020, the company said in a statement. The U.S. economy has had a steady run of good news in recent months, with job gains accelerating as businesses reopen and forecasters projecting that 2021 will see the strongest GDP growth in decades. But the Federal Reserve has shown no sign that there has been enough progress yet to ease the support for the economy that it put in place at the onset of the pandemic. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.3% to settled at 1671 while prices up 0.1 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1306.9 and below same could see a test of 1296 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1336.2, a move above could see prices testing 1354.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1296-1354.6.
* Nickel pared gains seen eralier as prospects for rebounding growth as the global vaccine rollout gathers pace underpinned a rally in the metals market.
* Global nickel demand to increase to 2.67 mln tonnes in 2021 – INSG
* Indonesia's Antam Q1 nickel ore output up more than four – fold y/y

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 195.1 as China's commitment to curb carbon emissions sparked worries that supply of the energy-intensive metal will be limited. The Chinese city of Baotou in Inner Mongolia shut down 34 ferroalloy companies and some captive power plants as part of a series of measures to meet its energy consumption targets for the first quarter, which could curb aluminum production by around 100,000 tonnes on an annual basis. Chinese officials have warned that they will cap high commodity prices to dampen inflation. Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, declined 25,000 mt from the prior week to 1.12 million mt as of April 29, and Wuxi mainly contributed to the decline. Shipments of aluminium billet out of warehouses rose slightly by 1,500 mt on the week to 61,200 mt as high aluminium prices weighed on downstream consumption. Data showed that stocks of 6063 aluminium billet across the five major consumption areas – Foshan, Wuxi, Huzhou, Changzhou and Nanchang – in China dropped 28,700 mt from the previous week to 134,000 mt as of Apr 29. German business sentiment rose by less than expected in April, the Ifo Institute’s business climate index, as a third wave of Covid-19 infections and industrial sector supply problems weighed on the recovery of Europe’s largest economy. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.62% to settled at 1585 while prices up 0.85 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 194.5 and below same could see a test of 193.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 195.8, a move above could see prices testing 196.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 193.8-196.4.
* Aluminium prices rose as China's commitment to curb carbon emissions sparked worries that supply of the energy-intensive metal will be limited.
* The Chinese city of Baotou in Inner Mongolia shut down 34 ferroalloy companies and some captive power plants
* Chinese officials have warned that they will cap high commodity prices to dampen inflation.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.06% at 975.1 amid worries of lockdown it is anticipated that there will be slow supply and same with demand in domestic as well as in the international market. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Sowing data is adequate and it is expected that Mentha can hit the market by 15th of June. Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. In India, mentha is grown on 3,27,000-3,34,000 hectares, producing about 33,000-35,000 tonnes, accounting for 80 per cent share globally. With the boom in demand for oil and its derivatives in export markets, mentha production continued to rise until 2010. However, with the entry of synthetic menthol, the demand, price and production of mentha were hit. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -13.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25% to settled at 25 while prices down -0.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 969.4 and below same could see a test of 963.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 981.9, a move above could see prices testing 988.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 963.7-988.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -13.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand
* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.71% at 7250 tracking rise in overseas prices as global supply tightens, and demand persists. CME raises soybean futures (s) maintenance margins by 7.2% to $4,100 per contract from $3,825 for May 2021. USDA said soybean export sales totaled 731,500 tonnes, topping forecasts that ranged from 100,000 tonnes to 700,000 tonnes. Russia plans to reduce its export tax on soybeans to 20%, but it will be no less than $100 per tonne, starting from July 1, the economy ministry said in a statement. The tax will be in place until September 2022, it said. Russia's export tax on soybeans is now set at 30%, with a minimum level of 165 euros ($200) per tonne, until June 30. Prices rallied to all time high in recently tracking rise in overseas prices as global supply tightens, and demand persists. The Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) of India has stressed the need to impose more measures to check the excessive speculative activity in the soyabean futures. In a letter to the members of SEA of India, Atul Chaturvedi, President of the association, said that SEA was flooded with complaints from its members that the soyabean contract on the commodity exchange was witnessing an unnatural price run due to technical reasons and alleged price rigging by speculators. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 79 Rupees to 7482 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.49% to settled at 54430 while prices up 122 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7070 and below same could see a test of 6890 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7360, a move above could see prices testing 7470.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6890-7470.
* Soyabean prices gained tracking rise in overseas prices as global supply tightens, and demand persists.
* USDA said soybean export sales totaled 731,500 tonnes, topping forecasts that ranged from 100,000 tonnes to 700,000 tonnes.
* Russia plans to reduce export tax on soybeans from July 1
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  79 Rupees to 7482 Rupees per 100 kgs.


Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 2.91% at 1425.1 amid worries about global edible oils supply. However upside seen limited after reports that summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date. There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country. Oilseeds 10.45 lakh ha area against 9.03 lakh ha area of last year, thus increase in area coverage by 1.41 lakh ha. Total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period. Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1459.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.83% to settled at 30020 while prices up 40.3 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1394 and below same could see a test of 1363 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1443, a move above could see prices testing 1461.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1363-1461.
* Refsoyoil prices gained amid worries about global edible oils supply.
* However upside seen limited after reports that summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date.
* There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1459.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 2.01% at 1200.2 tracking rise in Malaysian prices buoyed by stronger April exports and a rally in rival soyoil amid worries about global edible oils supply. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for April rose 10.1% to 1,397,916 tonnes from 1,270,058 tonnes shipped during March, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. Dry weather in Brazil is affecting yields of the country's second corn plantings, forecaster Safras & Mercado said as it lowered the country's corn crop estimate and exacerbated concerns of global supply. Indonesia's March crude palm oil production was up 13.5% compared to the year ago, an official at the country's palm oil association GAPKI told. Crude palm oil output in March stood at 3.71 million tonnes compared with the 3.27 million tonnes produced in the same month last year. Compared with February, it rose 20.9%.Indonesia's crude palm oil end stocks however stood at 3.2 million tonnes in March, 5.4% lower than a year ago and 20.6% lower than February. Indonesia estimates that it will export 5.9% more crude and refined palm oil in 2022 than this year, official data showed. Next year's exports are estimated at 27.135 million tonnes versus the 2021 estimate of 25.612 million, the data from BPDP, the government body in charge of subsidising palm oil programmes, showed. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 23 Rupees to end at 1237 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.66% to settled at 5065 while prices up 23.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1179 and below same could see a test of 1157.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1216.9, a move above could see prices testing 1233.6.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1157.8-1233.6.
* Crude palm oil gains tracking rise in Malaysian prices buoyed by stronger April exports and amid worries about global edible oils supply.
* Indonesia's March crude palm oil production was up 13.5% compared to the year ago, an official at the country's palm oil association GAPKI told.
* Crude palm oil output in March stood at 3.71 million tonnes compared with the 3.27 million tonnes produced in the same month last year.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 23 Rupees to end at 1237 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.87% at 7034 as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. The arrival of mustard in February was 4.50 lakh tonne while in March it reached 17.7 million tonne. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. As per USDA, World Mustard seed production is estimated to remain steady at 689 lakh tonnes in 2020-21. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% y-o-y, taking the total supply to decline by 2% to 923 lakh tonnes as compared to 944 lakh tonnes recorded in the last year. Total consumption and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% and 29% respectively. World export is also estimated to increase by 5% to 162 lakh tonnes as compared to 155 lakh tonnes last year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -206 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.41% to settled at 49850 while prices up 129 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6913 and below same could see a test of 6791 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7112, a move above could see prices testing 7189.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6791-7189.
* Mustard seed prices gained as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand.
* A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes.
* The stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -206 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric


Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.7% at 7720 as support seen after preliminary data showed turmeric exports gained by 5% on year on year basis to 13,026 tons against 12,462 tons in March 2020. However this year export growth is seen limited due to over 40% rise in turmeric prices. Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production. Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare's first advance estimate of horticultural crops, turmeric production is projected to be 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) this season (July 2020-June 2021) compared with 11.53 lt the previous season. The crop this year is at least 20 per cent lower as unseasonal rains affected the crop in Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Arrivals have been sluggish proving that the projections of the lower crop are correct. Arrivals so far this year been 10.15 lakh bags (50 kg each) against 11.50 lakh bags last year and 14 lakh bags in 2019. In places such as Nanded in Maharashtra, arrivals are at least 40 per cent lower. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7600 Rupees dropped -46.9 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.31% to settled at 6180 while prices up 54 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7642 and below same could see a test of 7566 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7794, a move above could see prices testing 7870.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7566-7870.
* Turmeric prices gained as support seen after preliminary data showed turmeric exports gained by 5%
* Prices also seen supported on export orders to Bangladesh, besides domestic demand and projections of lower production.
* Prices have increased in view of the closure of physical markets in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra for nearly two weeks.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7600 Rupees dropped -46.9 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.79% at 14025 on short covering tracking gains in other agri commodities after prices remained under pressure in recent sessions as there is pressure on the supply of new crops in the spot markets and demand will be affected due to the lockdown amid resurgence in corona virus cases in many countries. Pressure seen after update in Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year (February-January) 2021-22. The total arrival in both the states from February 1 to March 31, 2021 was 136031.18 tonnes as compared to 82300.31 tonnes at the same time last year. Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons against 19,406 tons in March 2020. In 2020 March exports of Cumin were less because of boarder tensions with China. According to the Union Government's Ministry of Consumer Affairs, the arrival of cumin in the mandis of Gujarat from 1 February to 31 March 2021 was 121063.57 tonnes while it was was 79604.84 tonnes from February to 31 March 2020. In this way, there was a 52.08 percent increase in arrivals. The Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders has estimated the production of cumin from the country to be 478520 tonnes this year. This production was 535500 tonnes in the Rabi season 2020. This production of cumin is 10.6 percent is less than in the year 2020. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.5% to settled at 4146 while prices up 110 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13920 and below same could see a test of 13810 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14095, a move above could see prices testing 14160.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13810-14160.
* Jeera prices gained on short covering tracking gains in other agri commodities after prices remained under pressure as there is pressure on the supply of new crops
* In Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year
* Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 21710 as pressure seen after the Government of India’s top cotton crop assessment body has projected cotton consumption to dip by a little more than 8 per cent owing to the latest Covid-19 wave and the subsequent lockdowns in several States. The Union Ministry of Textiles’ Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) has reduced cotton consumption for season 2020-21 (October to September period) from 330 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) to 303 lakh bales, primarily due to the current lockdowns as the severe second wave of Covid has gripped the entire nation. In the COCPC meeting held on April 30, the estimated cotton closing stock has been increased from the earlier projected 98.79 lakh bales to 118.79 lakh bales at the end of the season on September 30, 2021. The COCPC, which was formed in September 2020 replacing the erstwhile Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), has also curtailed the projected cotton output for the season from the earlier estimated 371 lakh bales to 360 lakh bales. China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said it had issued an additional 700,000 tonnes quota for cotton imports this year, all of which is for non-state traders and will be subject to a sliding scale tariffs system. In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 22010 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.95% to settled at 8642 while prices down -100 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21660 and below same could see a test of 21610 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21760, a move above could see prices testing 21810.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21610-21810.
* Cotton prices dropped as pressure seen after COCPC projects season 2020-21 consumption at 303 lakh bales, down from 330 lakh bales
* The estimated cotton closing stock has been increased from the earlier projected 98.79 lakh bales to 118.79 lakh bales
* China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said it had issued an additional 700,000 tonnes quota for cotton imports this year
# In spot market, Cotton gained  by 10 Rupees to end at 22010 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 1.09% at 5309 on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories. Support also seen as the concern of unseasonal rain in the early part of this year has stoked up crop damage fears in some of the northern states. In addition, the government has spruced up procurement through minimum support price as higher arrivals at major markets have pulled down spot prices below the ₹5,100 per quintal. Chana arrivals last month increased three-fold to 6.4 lakh tonnes. The government agency Nafed is learnt to have procured 1.24 lakh tonnes of chana in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year. The second advance estimates of Ministry of Agriculture pegs chana production at a record high of 116 lakh tonnes in 2020-21 season (111 lakh tonnes). In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 39.6 Rupees to end at 5339.6 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.54% to settled at 61970 while prices up 57 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5251 and below same could see a test of 5192 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5362, a move above could see prices testing 5414.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5192-5414.
* Chana gained on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories.
* Total summer crops have been sown on 73.76 lakh ha area against 60.67 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year
* Sowing reported under Pulses 12.75 lakh ha against 6.45 lakh ha area of last year i.e. increase in area coverage by 6.30 lakh ha.
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 39.6 Rupees to end at 5339.6 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer