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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.16% at 47256 amid rising optimism about U.S. stimulus and on data showing a smaller-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls last month. Data released by the Labor Department showed a modest rebound in employment in the month of January. The report said non-farm payroll employment edged up by 49,000 jobs in January after plunging by a revised 227,000 jobs in December. The Labor Department also said the unemployment rate slid to 6.3% in January from 6.7% in December. The unemployment rate was expected to come in unchanged. Physical gold demand picked up in China ahead of the Lunar New Year festival, while Indian retail buyers cheered a sharp dip in domestic rates. Singapore dealers, meanwhile, flagged a possible supply crunch fuelled by a surge in interest for silver. Chinese dealers charged premiums of $0.50-$5 an ounce over benchmark spot gold prices. Indian premiums pushed to a six-month peak of up to $6 an ounce over official domestic prices. The SPDR Gold Trust , the largest gold-back ETF, saw its highest inflows since Jan. 15, on Feb. 4. But for the week, gold has shed 2.2% so far, which would be its biggest decline since the week ended Jan. 8. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.29% to settled at 13543 while prices up 541 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46937 and below same could see a test of 46617 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47446, a move above could see prices testing 47635. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 46617-47635.

* Gold prices moved higher amid rising optimism about U.S. stimulus and on data showing a smaller-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls last month.

* Data released by the Labor Department showed a modest rebound in employment in the month of January.

* Physical gold demand picked up in China ahead of the Lunar New Year festival, while Indian retail buyers cheered a sharp dip in domestic rates

Silver     

Silver yesterday settled up by 2.87% at 68738 helped by a retreat in the dollar and data showing slower-than-expected growth in U.S. employment underpinning the need for additional financial support. U.S. employment growth rebounded moderately in January and job losses in the prior month were deeper than initially thought. The U.S. House of Representatives will take up final approval of a budget measure that would let Democrats push the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package through Congress. U.S. employment growth rebounded less than expected in January and job losses the prior month were deeper than initially thought, strengthening the argument for additional relief money from the government to aid the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased by 49,000 jobs last month. Data for December was revised to show 227,000 jobs lost instead of 140,000 as previously reported. The United States' trade deficit surged to its highest level in 12 years in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the flow of goods and services. The Commerce Department said that the trade deficit jumped 17.7% to $678.7 billion last year, the highest since 2008. Exports of goods and services tumbled 15.7% to their lowest level since 2010. Imports of goods and services dropped 9.5% to a four-year low. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.53% to settled at 12573 while prices up 1920 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67687 and below same could see a test of 66637 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69305, a move above could see prices testing 69873.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 66637-69873.

* Silver prices rallied helped by data showing slower-than-expected growth in U.S. employment underpinning the need for additional financial support.

* The U.S. House of Representatives will take up final approval of a budget measure that would let Democrats push the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package through Congress.

* U.S. employment growth rebounded moderately in January and job losses in the prior month were deeper than initially thought.

Crude oil      

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.75% at 4141 as prices climbed to their highest levels in a year, boosted by the continued commitment of producers to hold back crude supply and positive signs of economic growth in the United States. Markets were encouraged by stronger-than-expected orders for U.S. goods in December, pointing to strength in manufacturing, and hopes for swift approval by lawmakers of President Joe Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid plan. OPEC+ maintained its oil output policy, a sign producers are happy that their deep supply cuts are draining inventories despite an uncertain outlook for a recovery in demand as the pandemic lingers. A Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is ""optimistic for (a) year of recovery in 2021,"" OPEC said in a statement after the panel met virtually. Ministers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia struck a note of cautious optimism about global oil markets and ""stressed the importance of accelerating market re-balancing without delay."" U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell while gasoline inventories jumped unexpectedly, the Energy Information Administration said. The crude draw, along with a rise in refining output, points to demand recovery. 

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.4% to settled at 3246 while prices up 31 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4118 and below same could see a test of 4095 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4172, a move above could see prices testing 4203."

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4095-4203.

* Crude oil gains on strong U.S. economic data, falling inventories and the OPEC+ decision to stick to its output cuts

* Markets were encouraged by stronger-than-expected orders for U.S. goods in December, pointing to strength in manufacturing

* OPEC+ sticks with oil policy as prices rise towards one-year high

Nat.Gas     

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.7% at 215.9 on forecasts for less cold weather and less heating demand next week than previously expected. That price decline came even though all forecasts continue to call for extreme cold in two weeks, which helped boost futures to their highest levels in 12 weeks earlier in the day. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February. Traders noted that was down from 91.0 bcfd in January, due in part to the freezing of some wells. Output hit an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would jump from 127.4 bcfd this week to 134.2 bcfd next week and 145.2 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week, however, was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Stockpiles have remained above the five-year (2016-2020) average since the start of 2020 and were still 7.9% above that average at the end of last week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants averaged 10.7 bcfd so far in February, up from January's 10.4 bcfd average and on track to tie December's 10.7 bcfd record high. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.51% to settled at 8201 while prices up 7.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 210.8 and below same could see a test of 205.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 222, a move above could see prices testing 228.2.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 205.8-228.2.

* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for less cold weather and less heating demand next week than previously expected.

* That price decline came even though all forecasts continue to call for extreme cold in two weeks

* Stockpiles have remained above the five-year (2016-2020) average since the start of 2020

Copper      

Copper yesterday settled up by 2.18% at 609.55 supported from low level of inventories and hopes of further U.S. stimulus that could boost demand for the red metal. But Chinese markets will remain closed from Feb. 11-17 for Lunar New Year holidays, potentially slowing demand for industrial metals. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.0 percent from last Friday, the exchange said. U.S. data showed private payrolls rebounding more than expected in January, while service activities also improved strongly, pointing to signs of a recovery in the world's biggest economy. Adding to the optimism, the U.S. Congress pushed ahead with a maneuver to pass a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package. The plan is still pending a vote at the Senate. In China, a central bank official said the People's Bank of China will keep liquidity reasonably ample, easing money supply worries in the world's top metals consumer. Soaring sales of consumer goods such as washing machines, fridges, freezers and cars in the world outside China are expected to invigorate copper consumption and create shortages later this year. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.29% to settled at 3177 while prices up 13 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 601.4 and below same could see a test of 593.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 614, a move above could see prices testing 618.4.

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 593.2-618.4.

*Copper prices edged up supported from low level of inventories and hopes of further U.S. stimulus that could boost demand for the red metal.

* In China, a central bank official said the PBOC will keep liquidity reasonably ample, easing money supply worries 

* Chinese markets will remain closed from Feb. 11-17 for Lunar New Year holidays, potentially slowing demand for industrial metals.

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.6% at 212.8 as tight zinc concentrate supply overseas, better-than-expected US jobless data and confidence in the US economic outlook boosted market sentiment. Domestic refined zinc output shrank more than expected in January due to narrowed profits and maintenance, and is expected to drop 64,000 mt on the month in February. In addition, workers at downstream plants are encouraged to stay where they work for the Spring Festival in order to reduce the possibility of being infected with COVID-19, and this may boost demand. Zinc inventories in China rose this week, with stocks in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin increasing relatively sharply. data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei increased 16,000 mt in the week ended February 5 to 154,200 mt. The stocks rose 15,100 mt from Monday February 1. Stocks in Shanghai increased as downstream restocked when zinc prices fell despite decreased demand. In south China's Guangdong, arrivals at smelters increased and downstream took a holiday successively with shrinking demand, prompting stocks to increase sharply. Stocks in Tianjin rose slightly as some cargoes at smelters were shipped directly to the downstream plants. Stocks across the three major trading hubs (Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong) rose 16,200 mt this week, after a 2,600 mt decrease last week. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.4% to settled at 1933 while prices up 3.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 210.9 and below same could see a test of 209 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.8, a move above could see prices testing 214.8. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 209-214.8.

* Zinc gained boosted by tight zinc concentrate supply overseas, better-than-expected US jobless data and confidence in the US economic outlook

* Domestic refined zinc output shrank more than expected in January due to narrowed profits and maintenance

* In addition, workers at downstream plants are encouraged to stay where they work for the Spring Festival

Nickel​​​​​​​      

Nickel yesterday settled up by 2.63% at 1315.9 as the better-than-expected US first-time filings for unemployment benefits in the week ended January 30 lifted market sentiment. The number of first-time unemployment-benefits filers in the US totaled 779,000 in the week ending January 30, the lowest since November 2020. A gradual recovery in the labour market boosted risk appetite. Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 17,000 wmt from January 29 to 8.08 million wmt as of February 5, showed data. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports increased 93,000 wmt during the same period to 6.46 million wmt. Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas remained unchanged from a week ago and stood at 16,600 mt as of February 5, showed data. The import window only opened briefly on Monday this week, and then turned into a continuous loss state. Therefore, few refined nickel from bonded areas flew into domestic market, and cargoes under long-term contracts arriving at port were also limited. The Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged following its first meeting of 2021, with its main lending rate held at 0.1% and target stock of asset purchases kept at £895 billion ($1.2 trillion). Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.44% to settled at 1708 while prices up 33.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1298.8 and below same could see a test of 1281.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1325.5, a move above could see prices testing 1335.1. 

Trading Ideas:            

*  Nickel trading range for the day is 1281.7-1335.1.

*  Nickel prices gained as the better-than-expected US first-time filings for unemployment benefits in the week ended January 30 lifted market sentiment.

* The number of first-time unemployment-benefits filers in the US totaled 779,000 in the week ending January 30, the lowest since November 2020.

* Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 17,000 wmt from January 29 to 8.08 million wmt as of February 5, showed data.

Aluminium      

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.05% at 163.85 boosted by optimism over stimulus talks and progress on vaccine rollouts. A smaller-than-expected rebound in the U.S. labor market last month highlighted the need for more government aid to shore up the economy. The Labor Department reported a 49,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls last month, but job losses in manufacturing and construction. U.S. President Joe Biden and his Democratic allies in Congress moved ahead with their $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package as lawmakers approved a budget plan that will allow them to muscle Biden's plan through in the coming weeks without Republican support. Initial jobless claims in the US reached the lowest level since the end of November, indicating a slowdown in layoffs. Minneapolis Fed President said that the financial relief policy should be linked to the job market indicators. However, the Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged yesterday, and it is expected that the country's economy will rebound rapidly under the impetus of the bold vaccination program. The Federal Reserve President of the US expressed support for the implementation of quantitative easing economic policy in the past two weeks. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.12% to settled at 810 while prices up 1.7 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 162.5 and below same could see a test of 161.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 164.7, a move above could see prices testing 165.5.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 161.1-165.5.

* Aluminium prices gained boosted by optimism over stimulus talks and progress on vaccine rollouts.

* The Federal Reserve President of the US expressed support for the implementation of quantitative easing economic policy in the past two weeks.

* Initial jobless claims in the US reached the lowest level since the end of November, indicating a slowdown in layoffs.

Mentha oil     

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.14% at 953.6 due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1115.4 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 74 while prices down -11 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 947.2 and below same could see a test of 940.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 964, a move above could see prices testing 974.4. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 940.8-974.4.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1115.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean​​​​​​​      

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.12% at 4692 as prices seen supported following improved demand from China, dry weather in Brazil, slower than expected pace of harvest in the US due to crop damage. Rising export demand for Soymeal and healthy domestic demand for Soy oil against lower mandi arrivals supported positive market sentiments. Arrival of new season crop has started. However, the pace of arrival is slower than expected. SOPA slashed down Soybean production estimates for 2020-21 season by 15% to 104.55 lakh tonnes from its first advance estimates of 122.47 lakh tonnes released on 21 August 2020 based on the survey conducted by their teams at various locations between 1-7 October 2020. Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2020-21 marketing year (February 2021 - January 2022) has made the slowest progress in a decade as unrelenting rains hampered field activities. Soybean farmers in the South American nation had been able to harvest only 1.9% of the projected acreage as of Jan. 28, compared with 8.9% last year. As per USDA report global soybean production is estimated to increase by 8% to 3621 lakh tonnes, while world soybean consumption is also expected to increase by 4% to 3697 Lakh tonnes. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4758 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.37% to settled at 187240 while prices up 52 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4655 and below same could see a test of 4617 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4718, a move above could see prices testing 4743.     

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4617-4743.

* Soyabean gained as prices seen supported following improved demand from and US crop damage

* Arrival of new season crop has started, however the pace of arrival is slower than expected.

* Brazilian soybean harvest at slowest pace in a decade on incessant rains

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 4758 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.91% at 1106.9 amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons compared to 1,955,276 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. up by 26%. Export of soybean meal is back on tract, thanks to tightening world supply of soybeans and also linked to the strike induced interruption of Argentina soybean meal. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1105.8 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.77% to settled at 28065 while prices up 10 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1100 and below same could see a test of 1092 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1113, a move above could see prices testing 1118.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1092-1118.

* Ref soyoil prices gained as amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. 

* Government of India, lowered basic import duty on soybean oil to 15% from 35%. 

* Export of Oilmeals Doubled in December 2020

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1105.8 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil     

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.24% at 988.1 tracking rise in Malaysian palm oil as traders anticipated further inventory declines in January. Palm prices have risen in the past year due to a supply crunch in Malaysia brought about by poor weather and infrastructure issues. Indonesia produced 47 million tonnes of crude palm oil (CPO) last year and exported 34 million tonnes of the vegetable oil and its refined products, Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), said. The CPO output from the world's top palm oil producer was down 1% from a year earlier while exports fell 9%, the group said. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for January fell between 32% and 37% from December, cargo surveyors said. January shipments to India slumped about 70%, and imports by the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils could remain tight after it imposed an additional tax on crude palm oil imports in an effort to build domestic agriculture infrastructure. European Union palm oil imports in the 2020/21 season rose to 3.38 million tonnes by Jan. 31, compared with 3.29 million a year ago, data published by the European Commission showed. Shipments to India slumped about 70%, and imports by the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils could remain tight after it imposed an additional tax on crude palm oil imports in an effort to build domestic agriculture infrastructure. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 2.4 Rupees to end at 985.2 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.83% to settled at 6143 while prices up 12.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 982 and below same could see a test of 976 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 992, a move above could see prices testing 996.     

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 976-996.

* Crude palm oil gains tracking rise in Malaysian palm oil as traders anticipated further inventory declines in January.

* Indonesia's 2020 palm oil exports down 9% – palm oil association

* Palm prices have risen in the past year due to a supply crunch in Malaysia brought about by poor weather and infrastructure issues.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 2.4 Rupees to end at 985.2 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.23% at 5106 as production area of the Rabi season has reached a height of 73.94 lakh hectare, which is significantly higher than last year's sowing area of 69.08 lakh hectare and the normal average area of 59.44 lakh hectare. However downside seen limited as mustard crop is delayed due to cold over northern India. New mustard arrivals will start in Uttar Pradesh's mandis. In Rajasthan, due to excess moisture in the new crop, milling is not happening because for adulteration millers nor having old mustard crop. Earlier, the area under mustard was 69.17 lakh hectare in 2018-19 season, 67.04 lakh hectare in 2017-18, 70.67 lakh hectare in 2016-17 and 64.61 lakh hectare in 2015-16. Mustard crop is in good condition in most of the major producing states and its average yield rate and quality are expected to improve. As a result, the total production of mustard can reach a new record level. The chairman of a leading industry organization has estimated the gross production to reach 100 lakh tonnes, while the possibility of production is generally 80–90 lakh tonnes. The government (Ministry of Agriculture) has set a target of producing 125 lakh tonnes of mustard, but there is doubt about its achievement. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6539.25 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.32% to settled at while prices down -12 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5080 and below same could see a test of 5053 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5132, a move above could see prices testing 5157.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5053-5157.

* Mustard seed prices dropped as production area of the Rabi season has reached a height of 73.94 lakh hectare.

* However downside seen limited as mustard crop is delayed due to cold over northern India.

* Mustard production expected to reach new record level

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6539.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric      

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.99% at 6928 as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices. apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6583.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.85% to settled at 9505 while prices up 266 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6708 and below same could see a test of 6490 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7036, a move above could see prices testing 7146.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6490-7146.

* Turmeric prices gained as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices

*The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra.

* But apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6583.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera​​​​​​​      

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 13090 as the season progresses in Gujarat, the increase in Rabi sowing continues. Arrival quantity is less and the moisture content in it is being more. The season progresses in Gujarat, the increase in Rabi sowing continues. The supply of good quality new crop is expected to increase from the third week of February and then its commercial activities will also pick up. The area under cultivation of cumin in Gujarat has come down from 4.88 lakh hectare in last year to 4.69 lakh hectare, but its 15.50 percent more than 4.06 lakh hectare as per Five Year Average Area. The production area of cumin in Rajasthan has increased from 6.41 lakh hectare to 6.85 lakh hectare. The weather condition is good this time in both the provinces of Gujarat and Rajasthan and till now the crop has not faced any natural disaster. The average yield rate of cumin may increase if the weather is favorable in February-March. Prices have remained largely stable due to better domestic and export demand in cumin. The total production of cumin is likely to be around last year. An average daily arrival of 10-20 bags of new cumin seeds and 30-40 bags of new fennel is coming in Unjha Mandi. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 12911.75 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.25% to settled at 1185 while prices up 15 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13020 and below same could see a test of 12945 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13175, a move above could see prices testing 13255.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 12945-13255.

* Jeera dropped as the season progresses in Gujarat, the increase in Rabi sowing continues. 

* The area under cultivation of cumin in Gujarat has come down from 4.88 lakh hectare in last year to 4.69 lakh hectare

* The supply of good quality new crop is expected to increase from the third week of February and then its commercial activities will also pick up.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 12911.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton      

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.71% at 21390 tracking rise in overseas prices as investors banked on a bullish federal supply-demand report next week and a fillip to demand from additional U.S. stimulus measures. Support also seen after CAI said India's imposition of 10% duty on cotton imports is unlikely to dent buying. The 10% import duty imposed by the world's biggest cotton producer was announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her budget speech. Indian textile mills have already imported 600,000 bales of cotton in the 2020/21 marketing year that started on Oct. 1, with a further 800,000 bales likely to be sourced from outside the country during the rest of the season, Ganatra said. The country is expected to produce 36 million bales in the current marketing year, against local demand of 33 million bales, though supply of extra long staple cotton is negligible, the CAI says. A committee on cotton production and consumption of the Central Textile Ministry has revised the data of cotton crop. According to the committee, production of 371 lakh bales is estimated in 2020-21. Earlier it was estimated to produce 358.50 lakh bales. Last year, in 2019-20, production of 365 lakh bales was done. According to the latest estimates, in Gujarat, the highest cotton project of 90.5 lakh bales has been done in 2020-21. Production per hectare is also high in Gujarat. In spot market, Cotton gained by 200 Rupees to end at 21120 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.49% to settled at 6688 while prices up 150 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21330 and below same could see a test of 21270 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21470, a move above could see prices testing 21550.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21270-21550.

* Cotton jumped tracking rise in overseas prices as investors banked on a bullish federal supply-demand report next week

* Support also seen after CAI said India's imposition of 10% duty on cotton imports is unlikely to dent buying. T

* Production of 371 lakh bales is estimated in 2020-21. Earlier it was estimated to produce 358.50 lakh bales.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 200 Rupees to end at 21120 Rupees.

Chana​​​​​​​      

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.24% at 4667 as MP Government procurement may increase if prices remain below MSP. NAFED withholding its sale tenders of Chana is also providing support to Chana prices. Demand of chana has witnessed growth Post Covid due increasing consumer preference for protein food, major demand coming from Saudi Arabia and Thailand. However upside seen limited due to fresh arrivals and expectation of increased supplies than the previous season. Also, the inventory held by stockiest seems reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available. Sowing area has also increased in Australia due to favorable condition of weather that is giving sign of a significant increase in the production of chickpeas. Meanwhile the exports of Chickpeas from Australia gathered momentum in November 2020 as compared to previous year, and net shipments had reached 74000 MT versus 40,000 MT in November 2019. Chana dropped as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states. Old gram selling remains normal, keeping prices under pressure. In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need. During the Rabi season this year, about 112 lakh hectare area has been sown in the gram producing states, which was in 107.30 lakh hectare last year. Weather friendly is likely to increase productivity. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4640 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.36% to settled at while prices up 11 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4633 and below same could see a test of 4598 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4704, a move above could see prices testing 4740.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4598-4740.

* Chana price gained as MP Government procurement may increase if prices remain below MSP.

* NAFED withholding its sale tenders of Chana is also providing support to Chana prices

* However upside seen limited due to fresh arrivals and expectation of increased supplies than the previous season.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4640 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com