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Gold yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 48784 hurt by an uptick in the U.S. dollar and bond yields, while investors awaited key economic readings out of the United States. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields held near a more-than two week low touched on Tuesday, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest paying gold. Fed vice chair Richard Clarida said the U.S. central bank can curb an outbreak of inflation should it occur without throwing recovery off track. Fed Board Governor Lael Brainard and other officials in separate remarks all backed the U.S. central bank’s current easy monetary policy view. The recent rise in U.S. inflation is unlikely to lead to the kind of undesirably high inflation that some notable economists have warned about, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said, reiterating his support for the Fed’s super-easy policy. “I have not seen anything yet to persuade me to change my full support of our accommodative stance for monetary policy or our forward guidance about the path for policy,” Evans said in remarks prepared for delivery to a Bank of Japan conference. Gold could receive support from higher Chinese physical demand if China has been importing more gold from Switzerland and Hong Kong due to commercial banks there being granted higher import quotas for April and May. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12% to settled at 4817 while prices down -83 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48560 and below same could see a test of 48336 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49114, a move above could see prices testing 49444.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 48336-49444.

* Gold prices eased hurt by an uptick in the U.S. dollar and bond yields, while investors awaited key economic readings out of the United States. 

* Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields held near a more-than two week low touched on Tuesday

* Fed vice chair Richard Clarida said the U.S. central bank can curb an outbreak of inflation should it occur without throwing recovery off track.

Silver           

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.01% at 71411 on profit booking after prices earlier gained as dollar index and US treasury yields remained subdued as diminished inflationary fears appeared to re-ignite risk-on behavior in stock markets world-wide. Panic surrounding emergence of highly transmissible strains of the corona virus and increasing geographies with unabated levels of the disease, attracted safe haven bids for the metal in the past two months and changed the course of its downward trajectory that was triggered with the promising vaccine rollout. James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, told that policymakers should not be too eager to pull back support yet as vaccinations bring the economy "closer and closer" to pre-pandemic form. Other Fed officials Raphael Bostic and Lael Brainard also talked down inflation risks and described the recent demand-supply disruptions as transitory. The dovish Fed comments lifted risk sentiment and offered support to stock markets in Asia and Europe. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped in April as prices surged amid a tight supply of houses, which is threatening to slow the housing market momentum. New home sales dropped 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 863,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. March’s sales pace was revised lower to 917,000 units from the previously reported 1.021 million units. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.88% to settled at 11031 while prices down -729 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 70841 and below same could see a test of 70271 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72380, a move above could see prices testing 73349.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 70271-73349.

* Silver prices dropped on profit booking after prices earlier gained as dollar index and US treasury yields remained subdued

* New home sales dropped 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 863,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said

* James Bullard, told that policymakers should not be too eager to pull back support yet as vaccinations bring the economy "closer and closer" to pre-pandemic form.

Crude oil           

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 4823 remained under pressure amid worries that a possible return of Iranian supply could cause a glut. Global oil deficit is currently seen at around 1 million barrels per day, Russia's deputy prime minister Alexander Novak told reporters. He added that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, should take into account possible increase in oil production by Iran when considering its further steps. U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories fell last week, according to American Petroleum Institute. Crude stocks fell by 439,000 barrels in the week ended May 21. Gasoline inventories fell by 2 million barrels and distillate stocks fell by 5.1 million barrels, the data showed. The value of Saudi Arabia's oil exports in March rose by 75% year on year to 52.3 billion riyals ($13.95 billion), official data showed. Non-oil exports increased by 42.9% to 22.4 billion riyals, the General Authority for Statistics said. Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, suffered last year as the pandemic hit energy demand and therefore its state coffers. China remained Saudi Arabia's main trading partner in March, with exports to there amounting to 14.3 billion riyals and imports of 9.4 billion riyals, the statistics authority said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.51% to settled at 6649 while prices down -10 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4779 and below same could see a test of 4734 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4857, a move above could see prices testing 4890.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4734-4890.

* Crude oil prices remained under pressure amid worries that a possible return of Iranian supply could cause a glut.

* Global oil deficit seen at 1 mln bpd, Russia's Novak says

* U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories fell last week, according to American Petroleum

Nat.Gas           

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.96% at 219.8 on expectations that surging global prices will boost U.S. exports back to record highs in coming weeks. That U.S. price gain came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, a decline in exports and a slow but steady increase in output this month. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from 90.6 bcfd in April. That, however, is still well below November 2019's monthly record of 95.4 bcfd. With milder weather on the horizon and the U.S. Memorial Day holiday coming this weekend, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would ease from 83.4 bcfd this week to 82.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv predicted. But with European gas prices at their highest since September 2018 and Asian prices near $11 per mmBtu, analysts said they expect buyers around the world to keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can provide. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, averaged 6.0 bcfd so far in May, just off April's monthly record of 6.1 bcfd, Refinitiv data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.11% to settled at 14677 while prices up 2.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 217.7 and below same could see a test of 215.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 221.3, a move above could see prices testing 222.9.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 215.7-222.9.

* Natural gas rose on expectations that surging global prices will boost U.S. exports back to record highs in coming weeks.

* That U.S. price gain came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* Speculators, meanwhile, boosted their net long gas futures and options positions for a third week in a row last week for the first time since February.

Copper           

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.12% at 746.15 as a planned labour strike at the world’s biggest copper mine in Chile threatened already low global supplies of the metal. A union representing workers at BHP’s Escondida and Spence copper mines rejected the company’s contract offer and called on members to walk off the job from Thursday. China’s banking regulator has asked lenders to stop selling investment products linked to commodities futures to mom-and-pop buyers to curb investment losses amid volatile commodity prices. Refined copper output in top consumer China could increase 6% year-on-year to 9.86 million tonnes in 2021, while demand is likely to grow 3.3% over the same period. The projected refined copper production includes 7.18 million tonnes of primary smelter output, which is up 5% year-on-year amid capacity ramp-ups by Chifeng Jinjian and Nanguo Copper. Consumption of refined copper in China could have seen sharp year-on-year growth of 37% in the first quarter of 2021, while demand in the second quarter might ease slightly from a high base in the same period last year. China's copper scrap imports in 2021 could increase 40% year-on-year to 1.32 million tonnes following a 73% jump in the first quarter from a low base in 2020. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.4% to settled at 4036 while prices up 0.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 743.1 and below same could see a test of 739.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 749.6, a move above could see prices testing 752.9. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 739.9-752.9.

* Copper prices gained as a planned labour strike at the world’s biggest copper mine in Chile threatened already low global supplies

* China’s banking regulator has asked lenders to stop selling investment products linked to commodities futures to curb investment losses

* China copper production seen up 6% y/y in 2021

Zinc           

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.47% at 232.45 as the dollar turned up for the first time this week as U.S. yields held steady. However downside seen limited as zinc treatment charges (TCs) in China jumped to their highest level in more than five months as power shortages in the Yunnan province left smelters facing production cuts, weakening demand for raw material zinc concentrate. Spot TCs, paid by miners to smelters to process imported concentrate into refined zinc in top consumer China, were last assessed at $95 a tonne, up 35.7% from the previous day and the highest since Dec. 4. Charges has previously been languishing a $70 a tonne, the lowest since September 2018 amid tight supply; the 2021 TC benchmark, used in long-term concentrate deals, was agreed at $159 a tonne. The global zinc market surplus narrowed in March to 2,100 tonnes from a revised surplus of 56,900 tonnes the previous month, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a surplus of 65,400 tonnes in February. During the first three months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed a surplus of 54,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 249,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.09% to settled at 1723 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 231.2 and below same could see a test of 229.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 234.4, a move above could see prices testing 236.2.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 229.8-236.2.

* Zinc prices dropped as the dollar turned up for the first time this week as U.S. yields held steady.

*  However downside seen limited as zinc treatment charges (TCs) in China jumped to their highest level in more than five months

* The global zinc market surplus narrowed in March to 2,100 tonnes from a revised surplus of 56,900 tonnes the previous month

Nickel           

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.05% at 1265 gained as easing inflation fears lifted market sentiment worldwide. The global nickel market deficit widened to 16,100 tonnes in March from a small deficit of 600 tonnes in the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Lisbon-based INSG's original estimate of the market balance for February was a 6,200 tonne surplus. During the first three months of the year, the global market saw a deficit of 18,700 tonnes, down from a surplus of 38,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020, INSG's data showed. According to the April 2021 edition of the IMF's Word Economic Outlook, the global economy is forecasted to expand at 6% in 2021, up from the 5.5% growth rate projected in January, due to the faster-than-expected recovery of advanced economies. Home prices were 13.2% higher in March, compared with March 2020, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. That’s up from the 12% annual gain in February, and it marks the 10th straight month of accelerating home prices. Several Republicans in the U.S. Senate planned to propose a $1 trillion infrastructure plan to the Biden administration on Thursday, but there was still a big gap with the White House's $1.7 trillion proposal. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.57% to settled at 2120 while prices up 13.1 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1253 and below same could see a test of 1240.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1273.7, a move above could see prices testing 1282.3. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1240.9-1282.3.

* Nickel prices gained as easing inflation fears lifted market sentiment worldwide.

* Chinese government has expressed the concern that a fast increase in prices could undermine economic recovery.

* The global nickel market deficit widened to 16,100 tonnes in March from a small deficit of 600 tonnes in the previous month

 Aluminium          

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.03% at 190.5 as LME aluminium inventories continued to fall since late March. LME aluminium inventories stood at the lowest in two and a half months. Recently, the domestic government has repeatedly emphasized the stability of the bulk commodity market, but the domestic electrolytic aluminum is unable to reach its production due to energy consumption and power problems, and the increase in supply is slow. The domestic aluminium demand is still in the peak season, and aluminium prices may keep fluctuating. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped in April as prices surged amid a tight supply of houses, which is threatening to slow the housing market momentum. New home sales dropped 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 863,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. March’s sales pace was revised lower to 917,000 units from the previously reported 1.021 million units. However, in China, five ministries including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly interviewed key enterprises in the iron ore, steel, copper, and aluminium industries, requiring them to maintain the order of prices in the bulk commodities market. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.13% to settled at 1829 while prices up 1.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 188.5 and below same could see a test of 186.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 191.6, a move above could see prices testing 192.7.    

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 186.5-192.7.

*  Aluminium prices gained as LME aluminium inventories continued to fall since late March.

* LME aluminium inventories stood at the lowest in two and a half months.

* In China the aluminium demand is still in the peak season, and aluminium prices may keep fluctuating.

Mentha oil           

Mentha oil settled flat at 924.9 amid worries of lockdown it is anticipated that there will be slow supply and same with demand in domestic as well as in the international market. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Sowing data is adequate and it is expected that Mentha can hit the market by 15th of June. Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. In India, mentha is grown on 3,27,000-3,34,000 hectares, producing about 33,000-35,000 tonnes, accounting for 80 per cent share globally. With the boom in demand for oil and its derivatives in export markets, mentha production continued to rise until 2010. However, with the entry of synthetic menthol, the demand, price and production of mentha were hit. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.26% to settled at 40 while prices up 0.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 922.6 and below same could see a test of 920.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 927, a move above could see prices testing 929.2.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 920.4-929.2.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil prices traded in range amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand 

* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

Soyabean           

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -1.12% at 7129 as USDA report showed Soybean production in the world is likely to increase by 6% to 386 million tonnes in next season (September- 2021- August 2020) in expectation of higher crop size in US and India. Edible Oil industry cautioned the government against resorting to any knee-jerk reaction of lowering import duties to cool down domestic prices, saying it could have a 'very negative’ impact on oilseed farmers, kharif planting for which will start in the coming few weeks. Total crop size in India may stand higher by 750,000 tonnes to 11.2 Million tonnes against 10.45 Million tonnes in this season. Higher soybean prices in this season will encourage farmers in India to cover higher soybean area. China's soybean imports from Brazil surged in April from the previous month, customs data showed, as cargoes that had been delayed by poor weather cleared customs. China, the world's top importer of soybeans, brought in 5.08 million tonnes of the oilseed from top supplier Brazil in April, up from only 315,334 tonnes in March, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Chinese crushers stepped up purchases of soybeans in expectation of increasing demand for animal feed from the steadily recovering pig sector. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 18 Rupees to 7488 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.97% to settled at 51145 while prices down -81 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7066 and below same could see a test of 7004 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7219, a move above could see prices testing 7310.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7004-7310.

* Soyabean dropped as USDA report showed Soybean production in the world is likely to increase by 6% to 386 million tonnes in next season.

* China's April soybean imports from Brazil surge from previous month

*  Brazil's Abiove sees 2021 soybean exports at record 85.6 million tns

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  18 Rupees to 7488 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil           

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 1403.3 as higher soybean output could limit edible oil imports. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. Global oilseed production is forecast to grow 5 percent in 2021/22, primarily on growth in soybean output in the United States and South America. Global oilseed production is projected to reach 632 million tons on record plantings. Soybean production is forecast to rise 23 million tons to 386 million, a 6-percent increase. Production of all oilseeds is forecast to increase, with all but cottonseed and rapeseed reaching at least 10-year records. Edible Oil industry cautioned the government against resorting to any knee-jerk reaction of lowering import duties to cool down domestic prices, saying it could have a 'very negative’ impact on oilseed farmers, kharif planting for which will start in the coming few weeks. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1437.7 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.03% to settled at 33535 while prices down -7.8 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1390 and below same could see a test of 1377 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1418, a move above could see prices testing 1433.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1377-1433.

* Ref soyoil dropped as higher soybean output could limit edible oil imports.

* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021

* Edible Oil industry cautioned the government against resorting to any knee-jerk reaction of lowering import duties to cool down domestic prices

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1437.7 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil           

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 1191.9 hit by demand and lockdown concerns in Malaysia. There are also concerns of stricter movement restrictions in Malaysia, which could implode consumption from the domestic hospitality, restaurants and catering sectors. Malaysia has kept its May export tax for crude palm oil at 8% but raised the reference price, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. The world's second-largest palm exporter calculated a reference price of 4,533.40 ringgit per tonne for May, up from 4,331.48 ringgit a tonne in April. The export tax structure starts at 3% for crude palm oil in a 2,250 to 2,400 ringgit-per-tonne range. The maximum tax rate is set at 8% when prices exceed 3,450 ringgit a tonne. India's palm oil imports in 2021 are set to fall for the second consecutive year as pandemic concerns continue to unfold in the country, forcing refiners to dial back production and keep stocks at a bare minimum level. India's imports of palm oil imports jumped 82% in April on the year as refiners stepped up purchases of the tropical oil to reduce imports of expensive soyoil and sunflower oil. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 1.3 Rupees to end at 1207.3 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -32.52% to settled at 1386 while prices down -1.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1187.1 and below same could see a test of 1182.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1197.5, a move above could see prices testing 1203.2.          

Trading Ideas:            

*  CPO trading range for the day is 1182.4-1203.2.

*  Crude palm oil dropped hit by demand and lockdown concerns in Malaysia.

*  There are also concerns of stricter movement restrictions in Malaysia, which could implode consumption.

*  Malaysia has kept its May export tax for crude palm oil at 8% but raised the reference price.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 1.3 Rupees to end at 1207.3 Rupees.

 Mustard Seed          

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.13% at 7099 as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. Prices rallied in recent session lifted by higher soy prices and concerns about dry Canadian planting conditions. Support also seen as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. Stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.08% to settled at 55040 while prices down -9 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7056 and below same could see a test of 7013 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7146, a move above could see prices testing 7193.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7013-7193.

* Mustard seed dropped as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. 

* COOIT wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both.

* U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric                      

Turmeric settled flat at 8026 as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7622.75 Rupees dropped -61.35 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.59% to settled at 9880 while prices up 8 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7904 and below same could see a test of 7784 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8122, a move above could see prices testing 8220.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7784-8220.

* Turmeric prices traded in range as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.

* However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. 

*  At least 50 per cent of the crop cultivated in the Maharashtra growing regions are estimated to have arrived at the terminal agricultural markets.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7622.75 Rupees dropped -61.35 Rupees.

Jeera           

Jeera settled flat at 13770 recovered on some bbuying after prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments and pushed prices lower. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -20 Rupees to end at 13980 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.04% to settled at 6189 while prices up 15 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13725 and below same could see a test of 13680 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13810, a move above could see prices testing 13850.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13680-13850.

* Jeera  traded in range as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments.

* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.

* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -20 Rupees to end at 13980 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton        

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 22790 after CAI has revised higher Indian cotton export estimates for 2020-21 season at 65 lakh bales against 60 lakh bales projected till last month. Cotton production in Haryana is expected to decline by 27 percent to 1.8 million bales in 2020-21 (July-June) season due to yield loss. India’s cotton output in the 2020-21 (October-September) market year is seen at 38 million bales, up 4 percent on the year. The country’s cotton exports are likely to be 20 percent higher at 1.02 million tonnes in 2020-21 (October-September) backed by competitive pricing in the global markets and an improvement in international cotton consumption, said Care Rating. Higher exports along with a recovery in domestic cotton demand will help reduce the surplus availability of cotton in the nation despite higher supply, the rating agency said in a note. Cotton farmers from various states are planning to increase the area under cultivation in the coming 2021-22 Kharif season. Indian textile mills have reduced production due to lower domestic demand and labour shortage. The government has allowed mills to operate but markets are closed so mills are facing a cash crunch. Textiles mills dealing in exports are still going strong as Indian yarn prices are attractive. In spot market, Cotton gained by 40 Rupees to end at 22820 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.26% to settled at 7065 while prices up 20 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22660 and below same could see a test of 22530 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22910, a move above could see prices testing 23030.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 22530-23030.

* Cotton pared gains on profit booking after prices seen supported as CAI has revised higher Indian cotton export estimates at 65 lakh bales 

* Cotton production in Haryana is expected to decline by 27 percent to 1.8 million bales in 2020-21 (July-June) season due to yield loss.

*  According to the Punjab Agriculture Department, sowing is been done on only 63,220 hectares, whereas the target is to cover 3.25 lakh hectares area.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 40 Rupees to end at 22820 Rupees.

Chana       

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 5153 as the Centre opened up imports of tur, urad and moong. However downside may see limited as pulses acreage could witness a decline during the forthcoming kharif season Government amended the pulses import policy by moving tur, urad and moong from ‘restricted’ to ‘free’ category. The Commerce Ministry in a notification said the revision in pulses import policy is with immediate effect and will for the period up to October 31, 2021. The current COVID-19 crisis has led to localized partial lockdown in many parts of the country and has raised the concerns over supply disruptions in the forthcoming months. The Chana crop production in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh may be on lower side compared to the last year. Chana import for 2020-21 (Apr-Jan) stood at 2.76 lakh tonnes as against 3.48 lakh tonnes imported during the corresponding period of the previous year. Import and export in month of January 2021 reported 0.41 lakh tonne and 0.10 lakh tonnes, respectively. According to the latest report of Australian department of Agriculture (ABARES), Australian Bengal gram acreage is forecasted to increase by 93% to 5.08 Lakh hectares in 2020-21. Bengal gram production is forecasted at 7.55 lakh tonnes in 2020-21, 169% higher than last year’s production of 2.81 Lakh tonnes. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -86.8 Rupees to end at 5123.65 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.12% to settled at 117270 while prices down -2 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5125 and below same could see a test of 5097 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5178, a move above could see prices testing 5203.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 5097-5203.

* Chana prices seen under pressure as the Centre opened up imports of tur, urad and moong. 

* Australian Bengal gram acreage is forecasted to increase by 93% to 5.08 Lakh hectares in 2020-21.

* In the marketing year 2020-21 (Apr-Mar), total arrivals of Chana have increased 51% so far from the same in the corresponding period a year ago.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -86.8 Rupees to end at 5123.65 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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