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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 48867 buoyed by a weaker dollar but with gains capped after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials calmed fears about inflation. Fed Board Governor Lael Brainard and other officials in separate remarks all backed the U.S. central bank’s current easy monetary policy view. The recent rise in U.S. inflation is unlikely to lead to the kind of undesirably high inflation that some notable economists have warned about, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said, reiterating his support for the Fed’s super-easy policy. “I have not seen anything yet to persuade me to change my full support of our accommodative stance for monetary policy or our forward guidance about the path for policy,” Evans said in remarks prepared for delivery to a Bank of Japan conference. Critics including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers say the Fed’s promise to keep rates at their current near-zero level until the economy reaches full employment and inflation has reached 2% and is on track to exceed that level moderately for some time is a recipe for overheating the economy. Gold could receive support from higher Chinese physical demand if China has been importing more gold from Switzerland and Hong Kong due to commercial banks there being granted higher import quotas for April and May. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.07% to settled at 5474 while prices up 314 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48502 and below same could see a test of 48137 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49063, a move above could see prices testing 49259.

Trading Ideas: 

* Gold trading range for the day is 48137-49259.

* Gold steadied buoyed by a weaker dollar but with gains capped after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials calmed fears about inflation.

* Fed's Evans says easy monetary policy has his 'full' support

* Fed Board Governor Lael Brainard and other officials in separate remarks all backed the U.S. central bank’s current easy monetary policy view.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 72140 as dollar index eased and Treasury yields were stable after comments from a series of Fed officials helped ease fears about inflation. James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, told that policymakers should not be too eager to pull back support yet as vaccinations bring the economy "closer and closer" to pre-pandemic form. Other Fed officials Raphael Bostic and Lael Brainard also talked down inflation risks and described the recent demand-supply disruptions as transitory. The dovish Fed comments lifted risk sentiment and offered support to stock markets in Asia and Europe. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped in April as prices surged amid a tight supply of houses, which is threatening to slow the housing market momentum. New home sales dropped 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 863,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. March’s sales pace was revised lower to 917,000 units from the previously reported 1.021 million units. The business confidence index rose to 99.2 in May from 96.6 in the previous month. The reading was also above economists' forecast of 98.2. U.S. personal consumption and inflation figures, due later this week, will shed more light on whether the Fed is going to see inflation as transitory. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.62% to settled at 10518 while prices up 329 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 71334 and below same could see a test of 70528 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72617, a move above could see prices testing 73094.

Trading Ideas: 

* Silver trading range for the day is 70528-73094.

* Silver remained supported as dollar index eased and Treasury yields were stable after comments from a series of Fed officials helped ease fears about inflation.

* New home sales dropped 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 863,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said

* James Bullard, told that policymakers should not be too eager to pull back support yet as vaccinations bring the economy "closer and closer" to pre-pandemic form.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.17% at 4833 continuing its trend as investors tempered expectations of an early return of oil exporter Iran to international crude markets. Indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran are due to resume in Vienna this week. Talks were resurrected after Tehran and the U.N. nuclear agency extended a monitoring agreement on the Middle Eastern country’s atomic programme. U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 290,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.02 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, a steeper decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 270,000 bpd. The agency said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.39 million bpd to 19.51 million bpd in 2021, compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.32 million bpd. Progress in vaccinating the world against COVID-19 means the world's economic recovery and demand for oil will outpace the output of top producers, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. "The anticipated supply growth through the rest of this year comes nowhere close to matching our forecast for significantly stronger demand beyond the second quarter," the IEA said in its monthly report, citing increased pumping from OPEC+ countries. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6% to settled at 7514 while prices up 8 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4787 and below same could see a test of 4742 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4867, a move above could see prices testing 4902.

Trading Ideas: 

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4742-4902.

* Crude oil gained continuing its trend as investors tempered expectations of an early return of oil exporter Iran to international crude markets.

* U.S. crude output to decline more than previously forecast in 2021 – EIA

* IEA sees oil demand recovery outpacing growth in supply

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.79% at 217.7 on expectations a rise in global prices will boost U.S. exports back to record highs in the coming weeks. That U.S. price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather, lower demand and a steady rise in output. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from 90.6 bcfd in April. That is still well below November 2019's monthly record of 95.4 bcfd. With the milder weather on the horizon, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would ease from 83.8 bcfd this week to 83.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv forecast on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.9 bcfd so far in May, down from April's monthly record of 11.5 bcfd. The decline was due to short-term issues and normal spring maintenance at a few Gulf Coast plants and the gas pipelines that supply them. But with European gas prices near their highest since September 2018 and Asian prices over $10 per mmBtu, analysts said they expect buyers around the world to keep purchasing near-record amounts of U.S. gas. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.52% to settled at 12862 while prices up 1.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 215.8 and below same could see a test of 213.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.5, a move above could see prices testing 221.2.

Trading Ideas: 

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 213.8-221.2.

* Natural gas rose on expectations a rise in global prices will boost U.S. exports back to record highs in the coming weeks.

* That U.S. price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather, lower demand and a steady rise in output.

* Speculators, meanwhile, boosted their net long gas futures and options positions for a third week in a row last week for the first time since February.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 745.25 amid worries about top consumer China’s crackdown on prices of industrial materials subdued sentiment. However downside seen limited due to expectations of robust demand and tight supplies and a weaker dollar. Much of the drop came after China raised margins for futures trading and transaction fees and introduced punishment for futures violations ranging from excessive speculation to spreading fake news. China will strengthen commodity price controls in its 14th five-year plan from 2021 to 2025, making plans to cope with abnormal fluctuations in the prices of commodities, including iron ore, copper and corn. The dollar hit 4-1/2 month lows against a basket of currencies, as softer U.S. data and insistence from Federal Reserve officials that policy would stay pat allayed investor fears about inflation forcing interest rates higher. Worries about copper supplies on the LME market have emerged after data from the exchange showed one company holding large amounts of warrants - title deed. Chile's state-run Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, said in a letter to lawmakers this week that as much as 40% of its copper output is at risk if a bill that limits mine operations near glaciers advances, according to a report in local daily El Mercurio. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 27.69% to settled at 4178 while prices down -5.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 739.7 and below same could see a test of 734 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 754.5, a move above could see prices testing 763.6.

Trading Ideas: 

* Copper trading range for the day is 734-763.6.

* Copper prices dropped amid worries about top consumer China’s crackdown on prices of industrial materials subdued sentiment.

* However downside seen limited due to expectations of robust demand and tight supplies and a weaker dollar.

* Chile's Codelco says 40% of its copper output at risk if glacier bill passes -media

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.04% at 233.55 as zinc treatment charges (TCs) in China jumped to their highest level in more than five months as power shortages in the Yunnan province left smelters facing production cuts, weakening demand for raw material zinc concentrate. Spot TCs, paid by miners to smelters to process imported concentrate into refined zinc in top consumer China, were last assessed at $95 a tonne, up 35.7% from the previous day and the highest since Dec. 4. Charges has previously been languishing a $70 a tonne, the lowest since September 2018 amid tight supply; the 2021 TC benchmark, used in long-term concentrate deals, was agreed at $159 a tonne. The global zinc market surplus narrowed in March to 2,100 tonnes from a revised surplus of 56,900 tonnes the previous month, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a surplus of 65,400 tonnes in February. During the first three months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed a surplus of 54,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 249,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc are produced and consumed each year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 36.98% to settled at 1778 while prices up 2.4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 231 and below same could see a test of 228.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 235.3, a move above could see prices testing 237.

Trading Ideas: 

* Zinc trading range for the day is 228.4-237.

* Zinc prices gained as China zinc treatment charges jump to 5 – month high as smelters face cuts

* Spot TCs, paid by miners to smelters to process imported concentrate into refined zinc in top consumer China, were last assessed at $95 a tonne

* The global zinc market surplus narrowed in March to 2,100 tonnes from a revised surplus of 56,900 tonnes the previous month

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.76% at 1251.9 as pressure continues after the Chinese government has expressed the concern that a fast increase in commodity prices could undermine the China's economic recovery. Much of the drop came after China raised margins for futures trading and transaction fees and introduced punishment for futures violations ranging from excessive speculation to spreading fake news. The global nickel market deficit widened to 16,100 tonnes in March from a small deficit of 600 tonnes in the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Lisbon-based INSG's original estimate of the market balance for February was a 6,200 tonne surplus. During the first three months of the year, the global market saw a deficit of 18,700 tonnes, down from a surplus of 38,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020, INSG's data showed. According to the April 2021 edition of the IMF's Word Economic Outlook, the global economy is forecasted to expand at 6% in 2021, up from the 5.5% growth rate projected in January, due to the faster-than-expected recovery of advanced economies. China's GDP is projected to increase by 8.4% y/y in 2021. Strong demand in ferrous and nonferrous metals have also indicated the global economic recovery, which has driven major commodities' prices soaring. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.4% to settled at 2176 while prices down -9.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1244.8 and below same could see a test of 1237.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1259.2, a move above could see prices testing 1266.6.

Trading Ideas: 

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1237.8-1266.6.

* Nickel dropped as pressure continues after the Chinese government has expressed the concern that a fast increase in prices could undermine economic recovery.

* Much of the drop came after China raised margins for futures trading and transaction fees and introduced punishment for futures violations

* The global nickel market deficit widened to 16,100 tonnes in March from a small deficit of 600 tonnes in the previous month

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.74% at 188.55 as pressure seen after Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped in April as prices surged amid a tight supply of houses, which is threatening to slow the housing market momentum. New home sales dropped 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 863,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. March’s sales pace was revised lower to 917,000 units from the previously reported 1.021 million units. However, in China, five ministries including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly interviewed key enterprises in the iron ore, steel, copper, and aluminium industries, requiring them to maintain the order of prices in the bulk commodities market. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April released overnight fell short of expectations, which eased market concerns about inflation, and the US dollar index fell. Meanwhile, Fed officials stated that the inflation is temporary, and that it is far from the point where it is necessary to discuss QE reduction. This curbed investors' speculation about the Fed's tightening of monetary policy, and the risk appetite improved. Global primary aluminium output fell to 5.56 million tonnes in April from revised 5.744 million tonnes in March, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.45% to settled at 1575 while prices down -1.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 187.1 and below same could see a test of 185.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 190, a move above could see prices testing 191.4.

Trading Ideas: 

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 185.6-191.4.

* Aluminium dropped as pressure seen after Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped in April as prices surged amid a tight supply of houses

* The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April fell short of expectations, which eased market concerns about inflation

* Global aluminium output falls to 5.56 mln T in Apr – IAI

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.43% at 924.7 on short covering after prices dropped amid worries of lockdown it is anticipated that there will be slow supply and same with demand in domestic as well as in the international market. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Sowing data is adequate and it is expected that Mentha can hit the market by 15th of June. Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. In India, mentha is grown on 3,27,000-3,34,000 hectares, producing about 33,000-35,000 tonnes, accounting for 80 per cent share globally. With the boom in demand for oil and its derivatives in export markets, mentha production continued to rise until 2010. However, with the entry of synthetic menthol, the demand, price and production of mentha were hit. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.67% to settled at 38 while prices up 4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 914.8 and below same could see a test of 904.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 932.3, a move above could see prices testing 939.9.

Trading Ideas: 

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 904.9-939.9.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gained on short covering after prices dropped amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand 

* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 3.31% at 7210 after Edible Oil industry cautioned the government against resorting to any knee-jerk reaction of lowering import duties to cool down domestic prices, saying it could have a 'very negative’ impact on oilseed farmers, kharif planting for which will start in the coming few weeks. Prices dropped in recent session as USDA report showed Soybean production in the world is likely to increase by 6% to 386 million tonnes in next season (September- 2021- August 2020) in expectation of higher crop size in US and India. Total crop size in India may stand higher by 750,000 tonnes to 11.2 Million tonnes against 10.45 Million tonnes in this season. Higher soybean prices in this season will encourage farmers in India to cover higher soybean area. China's soybean imports from Brazil surged in April from the previous month, customs data showed, as cargoes that had been delayed by poor weather cleared customs. China, the world's top importer of soybeans, brought in 5.08 million tonnes of the oilseed from top supplier Brazil in April, up from only 315,334 tonnes in March, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Chinese crushers stepped up purchases of soybeans in expectation of increasing demand for animal feed from the steadily recovering pig sector. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 168 Rupees to 7470 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.08% to settled at 50655 while prices up 231 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7093 and below same could see a test of 6977 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7290, a move above could see prices testing 7371.

Trading Ideas: 

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6977-7371.

* Soyabean prices gained after Edible Oil industry cautioned the government against resorting to any knee-jerk reaction of lowering import duties 

* China's April soybean imports from Brazil surge from previous month

* Brazil's Abiove sees 2021 soybean exports at record 85.6 million tns

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  168 Rupees to 7470 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.61% at 1411.1 on short covering tracking rise in soyabean prices after seen pressure in recent session as higher soybean output could limit edible oil imports. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. Global oilseed production is forecast to grow 5 percent in 2021/22, primarily on growth in soybean output in the United States and South America. Global oilseed production is projected to reach 632 million tons on record plantings. Soybean production is forecast to rise 23 million tons to 386 million, a 6-percent increase. Production of all oilseeds is forecast to increase, with all but cottonseed and rapeseed reaching at least 10-year records. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected U.S. 2021/22 soybean ending stocks at 140 million bushels, up only slightly from the 120 million expected at the end of 2020/21. The USDA projected a U.S. 2021/22 soybean crop of 4.405 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 50.8 bushels per acre. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1436.35 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.14% to settled at 34230 while prices up 8.6 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1400 and below same could see a test of 1389 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1423, a move above could see prices testing 1435.

Trading Ideas: 

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1389-1435.

* Ref soyoil gained on short covering tracking rise in soyabean prices after seen pressure as higher soybean output could limit edible oil imports. 

* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021

* Global oilseed production is forecast to grow 5 percent in 2021/22, primarily on growth in soybean output in the United States and South America.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1436.35 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 1193.2 as Malaysia's palm exports during May 1-20 rose 16% month-on-month. However upside seen limited hit by demand and lockdown concerns in Malaysia. There are also concerns of stricter movement restrictions in Malaysia, which could implode consumption from the domestic hospitality, restaurants and catering sectors. Malaysia has kept its May export tax for crude palm oil at 8% but raised the reference price, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. The world's second-largest palm exporter calculated a reference price of 4,533.40 ringgit per tonne for May, up from 4,331.48 ringgit a tonne in April. The export tax structure starts at 3% for crude palm oil in a 2,250 to 2,400 ringgit-per-tonne range. The maximum tax rate is set at 8% when prices exceed 3,450 ringgit a tonne. India's palm oil imports in 2021 are set to fall for the second consecutive year as pandemic concerns continue to unfold in the country, forcing refiners to dial back production and keep stocks at a bare minimum level. India's imports of palm oil imports jumped 82% in April on the year as refiners stepped up purchases of the tropical oil to reduce imports of expensive soyoil and sunflower oil. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -0.9 Rupees to end at 1206 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.07% to settled at 2054 while prices up 4.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1189.2 and below same could see a test of 1185.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1198.5, a move above could see prices testing 1203.9.

Trading Ideas: 

* CPO trading range for the day is 1185.3-1203.9.

* Crude palm oil gained as Malaysia's palm exports during May 1-20 rose 16% month-on-month.

* However upside seen limited hit by demand and lockdown concerns in Malaysia.

* Malaysia has kept its May export tax for crude palm oil at 8% but raised the reference price

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -0.9 Rupees to end at 1206 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.8% at 7108 after COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. Prices dropped in recent session as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. Prices rallied in recent session lifted by higher soy prices and concerns about dry Canadian planting conditions. Support also seen as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. Stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.32% to settled at 56210 while prices up 126 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7050 and below same could see a test of 6991 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7145, a move above could see prices testing 7181.

Trading Ideas: 

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6991-7181.

* Mustard seed prices gained after COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils.

* COOIT wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both.

* U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.22% at 8018 as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7684.1 Rupees dropped -38.5 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.02% to settled at 10040 while prices down -182 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7914 and below same could see a test of 7808 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8202, a move above could see prices testing 8384.

Trading Ideas: 

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7808-8384.

* Turmeric prices dropped as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.

* However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. 

* At least 50 per cent of the crop cultivated in the Maharashtra growing regions are estimated to have arrived at the terminal agricultural markets.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7684.1 Rupees dropped -38.5 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.18% at 13755 as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments and pushed prices lower. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -16.65 Rupees to end at 14000 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.19% to settled at 6318 while prices up 25 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13705 and below same could see a test of 13650 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13805, a move above could see prices testing 13850.

Trading Ideas: 

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13650-13850.

* Jeera traded in a range as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments.

* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.

* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -16.65 Rupees to end at 14000 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.29% at 22770 after CAI has revised higher Indian cotton export estimates for 2020-21 season at 65 lakh bales against 60 lakh bales projected till last month. Cotton production in Haryana is expected to decline by 27 percent to 1.8 million bales in 2020-21 (July-June) season due to yield loss. India’s cotton output in the 2020-21 (October-September) market year is seen at 38 million bales, up 4 percent on the year. The country’s cotton exports are likely to be 20 percent higher at 1.02 million tonnes in 2020-21 (October-September) backed by competitive pricing in the global markets and an improvement in international cotton consumption, said Care Rating. Higher exports along with a recovery in domestic cotton demand will help reduce the surplus availability of cotton in the nation despite higher supply, the rating agency said in a note. Cotton farmers from various states are planning to increase the area under cultivation in the coming 2021-22 Kharif season. Indian textile mills have reduced production due to lower domestic demand and labour shortage. The government has allowed mills to operate but markets are closed so mills are facing a cash crunch. Textiles mills dealing in exports are still going strong as Indian yarn prices are attractive. In spot market, Cotton gained by 130 Rupees to end at 22780 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.7% to settled at 7047 while prices up 290 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22480 and below same could see a test of 22190 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 23030, a move above could see prices testing 23290.

Trading Ideas: 

* Cotton trading range for the day is 22190-23290.

* Cotton seen supported as CAI has revised higher Indian cotton export estimates for 2020-21 season at 65 lakh bales

* Cotton production in Haryana is expected to decline by 27 percent to 1.8 million bales in 2020-21 (July-June) season due to yield loss.

* According to the Punjab Agriculture Department, sowing is been done on only 63,220 hectares, whereas the target is to cover 3.25 lakh hectares area.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 130 Rupees to end at 22780 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 5155 as the Centre opened up imports of tur, urad and moong. However downside may see limited as pulses acreage could witness a decline during the forthcoming kharif season Government amended the pulses import policy by moving tur, urad and moong from ‘restricted’ to ‘free’ category. The Commerce Ministry in a notification said the revision in pulses import policy is with immediate effect and will for the period up to October 31, 2021. The current COVID-19 crisis has led to localized partial lockdown in many parts of the country and has raised the concerns over supply disruptions in the forthcoming months. The Chana crop production in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh may be on lower side compared to the last year. Chana import for 2020-21 (Apr-Jan) stood at 2.76 lakh tonnes as against 3.48 lakh tonnes imported during the corresponding period of the previous year. Import and export in month of January 2021 reported 0.41 lakh tonne and 0.10 lakh tonnes, respectively. According to the latest report of Australian department of Agriculture (ABARES), Australian Bengal gram acreage is forecasted to increase by 93% to 5.08 Lakh hectares in 2020-21. Bengal gram production is forecasted at 7.55 lakh tonnes in 2020-21, 169% higher than last year’s production of 2.81 Lakh tonnes. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 4.3 Rupees to end at 5210.45 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.11% to settled at 123600 while prices down -46 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5121 and below same could see a test of 5088 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5216, a move above could see prices testing 5278.

Trading Ideas: 

* Chana trading range for the day is 5088-5278.

* Chana prices seen under pressure as the Centre opened up imports of tur, urad and moong. 

* Australian Bengal gram acreage is forecasted to increase by 93% to 5.08 Lakh hectares in 2020-21.

* In the marketing year 2020-21 (Apr-Mar), total arrivals of Chana have increased 51% so far from the same in the corresponding period a year ago.

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 4.3 Rupees to end at 5210.45 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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